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Opinion: China, not Tesla, is driving the electric-car revolution
By Jack Barkenbus Published: May 15, 2019 9:01 a.m. ET

是中國而不是特斯拉在推動(dòng)電動(dòng)汽車革命

Chinese consumers bought 1.1 million electric vehicles last year; U.S. sales were 358,000

中國消費(fèi)者去年購買了110萬輛電動(dòng)汽車，而美國僅銷量了35.8萬輛
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AFP/Getty Images
Visitors look at a Gyon electric luxury car at the Shanghai Auto Show in April.

ByJackBarkenbus2019年 4月，游客們?cè)谏虾＼囌股嫌^看“歌昂”豪華電動(dòng)車

The electric vehicle revolution is coming, but it won’t be driven by the U.S. Instead, China will be at the forefront.

電動(dòng)汽車革命即將到來，但它不會(huì)由美國來推動(dòng)。相反，中國將走在前沿

My research on EVs, dating back a decade, convinces me that this global transformation in mobility, from petroleum-fueled vehicles to electric ones, will come sooner than later. The shift is already happening in China, which is the world’s largest automobile market, with 23 million cars sold in 2018. As Western countries approach peak car ownership, there are still hundreds of millions of Chinese families that don’t own a car at all — much less two or more.

10年前我開始對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車進(jìn)行研究，這讓我相信，全球交通從石油燃料汽車到電動(dòng)汽車的轉(zhuǎn)型遲早會(huì)到來。而且這種轉(zhuǎn)變已經(jīng)在中國發(fā)生。中國是世界上最大的汽車市場(chǎng)，2018年的汽車銷量為2300萬輛。隨著西方國家的汽車保有量接近峰值，中國仍有數(shù)億家庭根本沒有汽車——更不用說有兩輛或是更多了。

Many of them are buying electric cars. By 2015, electric vehicle sales in China had surpassed U.S. levels. In 2018, Chinese sales topped 1.1 million cars, more than 55% of all electric vehicles sold in the world, and more than three times as many as Chinese customers had bought two years earlier. U.S. electric vehicle sales that year were just 358,000.

不少中國人正在買電動(dòng)汽車。到2015年，中國的電動(dòng)汽車銷量已經(jīng)超越美國。2018年，中國的汽車銷量超過110萬輛，占全球電動(dòng)汽車銷量的55%以上，是中國兩年前購車總量的三倍多。而美國當(dāng)年的電動(dòng)汽車銷量僅為35.8萬輛。

A key element of an electric vehicle’s price is the cost of its batteries — and China already makes more than half of the world’s electric vehicle batteries. Battery prices continue to fall; industry analysts now suggest that within five years it will be cheaper to buy an electric car than a gas- or diesel-powered one.

電動(dòng)汽車價(jià)格的其中一個(gè)主要因素是電池的成本，而中國已經(jīng)生產(chǎn)了全球一半以上的電動(dòng)汽車電池。規(guī)模效應(yīng)至使電池價(jià)格繼續(xù)下跌;行業(yè)分析師目前認(rèn)為，未來五年內(nèi)，電動(dòng)汽車將比汽柴油動(dòng)力汽車變得更便宜。

Huge government backing

政府全力扶持
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China has a fledgling, but ambitious, automobile industry. It has never been able to match the efficiency and quality of established auto makers at making gas-powered vehicles, but electric vehicles are easier to build, giving Chinese firms a new opportunity to compete.

中國有一個(gè)尚未成熟但雄心勃勃的汽車工業(yè)。它在生產(chǎn)燃?xì)鈩?dòng)力汽車方面的效率和質(zhì)量一直無法與老牌汽車制造商相比，但電動(dòng)汽車制造相對(duì)容易，這給了中國企業(yè)一個(gè)新的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)機(jī)會(huì)。

The Chinese government, therefore, has chosen to highlight electric vehicles as one of 10 commercial sectors central to its “Made in China” effort to boost advanced industrial technology. Government efforts include using billions of dollars to subsidize manufacturing of electric vehicles and batteries, and encouraging businesses and consumers to buy them.

因此，中國政府選擇將電動(dòng)汽車列為“中國制造”推動(dòng)先進(jìn)工業(yè)技術(shù)的10個(gè)核心商業(yè)領(lǐng)域之一。政府扶持方式包括提供數(shù)十億美元，用于補(bǔ)貼電動(dòng)汽車和電池的生產(chǎn)，鼓勵(lì)企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者購買電動(dòng)汽車和電池。
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The government is also aware that electric vehicles could help solve some of China’s most pressing energy and environmental concerns: Massive air pollution chokes its major cities, national security officials are worried about how much oil the country imports and China is now the nation contributing most to global climate change emissions.

政府也意識(shí)到中國的電動(dòng)汽車可以幫助一些目前急需解決的能源環(huán)境問題，比如解決籠罩在一些大城市中的空氣污染,減輕國家安全官員進(jìn)口石油負(fù)擔(dān)。目前，中國現(xiàn)在是影響全球氣候變化排放量最大的國家。

New companies

新公司

Scores of Chinese auto-making companies have formed to profit from these subsidies. A major player is BYD BYDDY, +2.06% 002594, -1.16%, which stands for “Build Your Dreams,” based in Shenzhen. More than a decade ago, billionaire investor Warren Buffett bought about a quarter of the company for $232 million — a share that is now worth more than $1.5 billion.

已有數(shù)十家中國汽車制造企業(yè)受從補(bǔ)貼中受益。總部位于深圳的比亞迪公司是其中主要的參與者，BYD的含義為“筑夢(mèng)”(Build Your Dreams)。十多年前，億萬富翁沃倫?巴菲特以2.32億美元的價(jià)格購買了該公司大約四分之一的股份，目前現(xiàn)在這部分股份價(jià)值已超過15億美元。

The company’s initial plans to export vehicles to the U.S. proved premature and fizzled. BYD instead started to focus mainly on the Chinese auto market, as well as building electric buses for the global market, which it now dominates.

事實(shí)證明， BYD公司起先向美國出口汽車的計(jì)劃是不成熟的，最終以失敗告終。相反，比亞迪開始注重中國汽車市場(chǎng)，以及該公司目前在全球市場(chǎng)上占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位的電動(dòng)巴士

If BYD’s electric car plans falter, though, there are plenty of other Chinese firms ready to pick up the slack.

不過，即使比亞迪的電動(dòng)汽車計(jì)劃遇挫，還有其他眾多望眼欲穿的中國公司正積極準(zhǔn)備彌補(bǔ)這一缺口。

Further support

進(jìn)一步扶持

In addition to the government subsidies to ensure BYD and its competitors have lots of customers, new government regulations are kicking in. The Chinese government now requires all auto makers who sell in China, whether domestic or foreign firms, to make a certain percentage of their sales electric, through a complex crediting formula. The mandate will get stricter over time, perhaps requiring each company to make at least 7% of their sales electric by 2025.

為確保比亞迪以其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手擁有大量客戶，除政府出資補(bǔ)貼外，還出臺(tái)了新的規(guī)定。中國政府現(xiàn)在要求所有在華銷售的汽車生產(chǎn)商，無論國內(nèi)或是國外企業(yè)，都必須通過一個(gè)復(fù)雜的信貸準(zhǔn)則，將一定比例的銷售收入投入到電動(dòng)汽車。隨著時(shí)間的推移，這一要求將愈來愈嚴(yán)格，至2025也許會(huì)要求每家公司年至少實(shí)現(xiàn)7%的電動(dòng)汽車銷售

Major foreign car companies have large investments in China and can hardly afford to abandon the market. Volkswagen VOW3, +4.91% VWAPY, +5.58%, for example, now sells 40% of its output in China, which is a main reason the company is pushing hard to develop electric vehicles.

外國大型汽車公司均在中國有大量投資，它們很難承擔(dān)放棄中國市場(chǎng)的代價(jià)。以大眾汽車(Volkswagen)為例，該公司目前40%的產(chǎn)量銷往中國，同時(shí)這也是該公司大力開發(fā)電動(dòng)汽車的一個(gè)主要原因。

China’s domestic auto makers have largely not yet engaged in the export market. Electric vehicle industry analyst Jose Pontes says there are three reasons for their reluctance: First, the Chinese market is big enough to absorb their current production. Second, many car companies in China are utterly unknown in the West, so customers would be wary of buying from a strange brand. And third, their cars do not yet comply with strict safety regulations in the U.S. and Europe.

中國國內(nèi)汽車生產(chǎn)商基本上尚未涉足出口市場(chǎng)。電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)分析師何塞?龐特斯(Jose Pontes)表示，他們之所以不愿這么做，有三個(gè)原因:第一，中國市場(chǎng)足夠大，能夠內(nèi)部消化目前的產(chǎn)量。其次，中國汽車品牌在西方默默無聞，所以消費(fèi)者在購買一個(gè)陌生品牌的汽車時(shí)比較謹(jǐn)慎。第三，他們的汽車還不符合美國和歐洲嚴(yán)格的安全規(guī)定。

Jack Barkenbus is a visiting scholar at the Vanderbilt Institute for Energy & Environment at Vanderbilt University. This was first published on The Conversation — “The electric vehicle revolution will come from China, not the US.”

杰克?巴肯巴斯是范德比爾特大學(xué)范德比爾特能源與環(huán)境研究所的訪問學(xué)者。這篇文章首次發(fā)表在《對(duì)話》上——“電動(dòng)汽車革命將來自中國，而不在美國?！?br />