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Geoffrey Widdison, lived in Japan
Blunt and unvarnished answer? Here’s why: Japan is old!
I mean, there are a million factors that go into economic growth in any given quarter, and those will come along and rise and fall and whatever, but Japan has an overwhelming factor that makes economic growth very difficult, and that’s the aging population.

直截了當(dāng)?shù)幕卮鹁褪侨毡疽呀?jīng)老了。我的意思是，每個(gè)季度都會(huì)有很多的因素影響經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，這些因素會(huì)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)起起伏伏，但日本有一個(gè)難以克服的一個(gè)因素，那就是人口老齡化，這使得日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)很難增長(zhǎng)。

Japan has the highest life expectancy in the world (the average person lives to 84 there) and one of the lowest fertility rates. They were one of the first countries in the world to have a below-replacement fertility rate (first hitting that point in 1959). And their current fertility is actually an improvement, fertility got as low as 1.3 a couple of decades back,

日本是世界上預(yù)期壽命最高的國(guó)家，人均壽命84歲，但日本也是世界上出生率最低的國(guó)家之一。他們是世界上第一批生育率低于更替率的國(guó)家之一（1959年首次達(dá)到這個(gè)點(diǎn)）?，F(xiàn)在日本的生育率有所提高，幾十年之前日本的生育率低至1.3。

As a result of all of this, a third of the population of Japan is over the age of 60. Adult diapers are now outselling baby diapers in the country, which has never happened in any country in history. That means that the working age population is continually shrinking, while having to care for an ever-increasing population of retirees. Japan tends to resist allowing more immigrants in to bolster the workforce, so you have fewer and fewer workers trying to grow an economy with limited resources.

因此，日本三分之一的人口都在60歲之上。成人紙尿褲的銷量現(xiàn)在超過(guò)了嬰兒紙尿褲，這是歷史上任何一個(gè)國(guó)家都沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)過(guò)的事情。這意味著適齡勞動(dòng)人口在不斷減少，同時(shí)還要必須照顧不斷增加的退休人員。日本往往對(duì)增加移民補(bǔ)充勞動(dòng)力的做法持反對(duì)態(tài)度。，因此在資源有限的情況下，發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)的工人數(shù)量變得越來(lái)越少。

Angel Vasilev
Not only that they are not allowing Immigration, but the work/life balance is terrible, meaning that they bluntly put have less time to procreate

日本不僅不允許移民，而且在平衡工作和生活方面做的也很不好，這意味著他們沒(méi)有多少時(shí)間去生育子女。

Aaron Matthews
Lower fertility rates are probably just part of living in a developed country. Before the industrial revolution, fertility rates were higher but so were death rates. Another thing worth noting is that back then, children were an asset, not a liability. They helped their parents work on the farms As for aristocrats, having kids was a way to pass on your legacy.
Following the industrial revolution, the benefits of having many children went down as people moved away from the farms and towards big cities. Not only can’t children really help you with your work but you have to cover their expenses.

或許低生育率就是發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家生活的一部分。在工業(yè)革命之前，生育率很高，但死亡率同樣也很高。另一件值得注意的事情就是，以前孩子是資產(chǎn)，而不是負(fù)債。他們可以幫助父母在農(nóng)場(chǎng)工作，對(duì)于貴族來(lái)說(shuō)，他們需要有一個(gè)孩子來(lái)繼承自己的遺產(chǎn)。工業(yè)革命之后，隨著人們從農(nóng)場(chǎng)向大城市遷移，多生孩子的好處不斷的下降。孩子門不僅幫不了你的工作，而且你還要在他們身上花錢。

James Ikpeze
The government of Japan should step in, To change their work culture to be more family friendly. That is the only way.

日本政府應(yīng)該介入，要改變工作文化，使其變得對(duì)家庭生活更加的友好。這是唯一的解決辦法。

Daniel Whose Favorite City is Kamakura, Kanagawa
Believe me, they’re trying—the problem is that the stuff they’ve tried isn’t really working.
They just have no clue what to do, either because they don’t really understand the problem, or simply aren’t willing to acknowledge and admit it.

相信我，他們正在嘗試，問(wèn)題是他們嘗試的方法并沒(méi)有真正起作用。他們對(duì)此毫無(wú)頭緒，要么是因?yàn)樗麄儾涣私膺@個(gè)問(wèn)題，要么就是不愿意承認(rèn)問(wèn)題的存在。

Andrew S Clarke
Immigration creates more complex problems . Many societies are able to assimilate immigrants better and both individual and society benefit from that like USA but I don't think Japanese society is capable of that and not their fault . Japanese people like to preserve their homogeneity and culture .

移民會(huì)讓問(wèn)題變得更加的復(fù)雜，許多社會(huì)可以更好的吸收移民，讓個(gè)人和社會(huì)都能從中獲益，比如美國(guó)，但我認(rèn)為日本社會(huì)沒(méi)有能力做到這一點(diǎn)，這不是他們的錯(cuò)，日本人民喜歡保持同質(zhì)性的文化。

Geoffrey Widdison
The nation of Japan, right now, this minute, is in a demographic crisis which is only going to get worse with time. Even if they could get fertility rates back up, there’s way too much demographic inertia to turn the situation around in less than a century.

日本這個(gè)國(guó)家現(xiàn)在正在處于人口危機(jī)之中，隨著時(shí)間的推移，問(wèn)題會(huì)變得越來(lái)越嚴(yán)重。即便他們可以讓生育率回升，但人口慣性實(shí)在是太大了，很難在不到一個(gè)世紀(jì)的時(shí)間里扭轉(zhuǎn)局面。

I’m very aware that Japan would have a great deal of trouble assimilating a large immigrant population. I lived in Japan for a number of years, and I have a pretty good sense of the sense of monolithic culture there. And I don’t have a particular problem with their way of seeing things. I admire and respect the Japanese culture, and I want to see it preserved.

日本在吸收大量移民方面存在著很大的困難，我對(duì)此非常的清楚。我在日本生活過(guò)幾年，我很清楚日本的單一文化是怎么樣的。而且我覺(jué)得日本人看待事物的方式并沒(méi)有什么問(wèn)題。我欣賞并尊敬日本文化，我希望它可以得到保留。

David Sodeyama
Well, the sheer reality is that a lot of Japanese would rather die off rather than assimilate foreigners.
My dad finds it sad that a lot of his favorite places that he enjoyed are gone due to the older people passing away and their families not wanting to take over the family trade.
But he doesn't necessarily see immigration as the answer.

現(xiàn)實(shí)就是很多日本人寧愿死也不愿意和外國(guó)人同化。由于老年人不斷的離世而他們的家人又不愿意接手家族生意，我父親悲哀的發(fā)現(xiàn)，很多自己喜歡的地方都不見(jiàn)了。但他依然覺(jué)得外來(lái)移民未必就是解決問(wèn)題的辦法。

Daniel Melo
They did accept a considerable amount of Japanese-Brazilians. Some didn’t like the work culture there and went back. It’s hard to get a good job in Japan if you didn’t go to a prestigious Japanese University too, so even guys with good Brazilian diplomas had a hard time and had to work at jobs they were overqualified.

他們確實(shí)接納了相當(dāng)多的日裔巴西人。有些人不喜歡日本的工作文化，然后又回到了巴西。如果你不是日本名校畢業(yè)的話，在日本是很難找到好的工作的，即便你在巴西獲得了很好的文憑也很難，所以最后只能做一些大材小用的工作。

Geoffrey Widdison
Historically, Japanese society has been indifferent to the needs of immigrants, at best. That needs to change if the country wants to survive.

長(zhǎng)久以來(lái)，日本社會(huì)一直對(duì)移民的需求漠不關(guān)心。如果日本這個(gè)國(guó)家還想繼續(xù)存在下去的話，那么就需要做出改變。

Fordjour Emmanuel
In fact immigration is key to the development of every country whether you like it or not
Japan can adopt the Canadian style of immigration
Inviting educated individuals into the country to complement their working population. Japan is a sucessful country and they will be willing.

不管你喜歡與否，移民對(duì)每個(gè)國(guó)家的發(fā)展都是至關(guān)重要的。日本可以采取加拿大的移民模式。邀請(qǐng)受過(guò)教育的人進(jìn)入自己的國(guó)家，以補(bǔ)充勞動(dòng)力。日本是一個(gè)成功國(guó)家，移民是愿意去那里的。

Hardik Sukhdeep Singh
Lots of assumptions here… if they’ve never had mass migration who knows how they really would react to it. Japanese society is generally very polite and non confrontational, much more than in Anglo countries, so the reaction maybe would be more muted. Also since Japan has an advanced economy they could literally pick and choose what types of immigrants they wanted.

這里很多人都是在假設(shè)，既然日本從來(lái)沒(méi)有接收過(guò)大規(guī)模的移民，那么誰(shuí)又能真正知道他們對(duì)此會(huì)有何反應(yīng)。日本社會(huì)一般都是非常重視禮節(jié)的，不會(huì)像盎撒國(guó)家那樣充滿對(duì)抗性，所以他們的反應(yīng)或許會(huì)更加的溫和。而且由于日本經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)，實(shí)際上，他們可以自己挑選自己想要的移民類型。

Anh Khoa Nguyen
sounds like you don’t know about East Asian culture in general, and Japanese culture in particular. East Asian culture, Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Vietnamese, we, I say here, we, all highly value harmony and homogeneity. We are suspicious of outsiders, because they don’t follow the rule in our lands. It’s the same everywhere to be resistant to outsiders, but it’s much, much bigger issue for East Asian countries who have long history of homogeneity and suffered alot from invasion of outsiders, even just the invasion from neighborhood countries.

看起來(lái)你并不了解東亞文化，尤其是不了解日本文化。東亞文化，如中國(guó)文化，韓國(guó)文化，日本文化和越南文化，都是高度重視和諧和同質(zhì)性的。我們不相信外來(lái)者，因?yàn)樗麄儾蛔袷匚覀兺恋厣系囊?guī)矩。其實(shí)每個(gè)地方都一樣，都非常的抗拒外來(lái)者，但東亞國(guó)家在這個(gè)問(wèn)題上尤其的嚴(yán)重，因?yàn)樗麄兊耐|(zhì)化的歷史非常的悠久，而且經(jīng)常遭到外敵的入侵，甚至有的入侵就是來(lái)自于鄰國(guó)。

Yes, Japanese are very polite and non-confrontational. You go to their house, they will open, invite you in, let you eat their meals, allowing you to stay for a long time. But you will be forever be a guest. You will never be a family to them, if you are not the same as them.

是的，日本人很有禮貌，沒(méi)有什么對(duì)抗性。你去他們家，他們會(huì)開(kāi)門歡迎你，然后請(qǐng)你吃飯，你也可以長(zhǎng)時(shí)間在他們家做客。但你永遠(yuǎn)只是客人而已。如果你和他們不一樣的話，那就永遠(yuǎn)無(wú)法成為他們的家人。

Edgar Bahena
Woah! So despite the decreasing population, it is still crowded.

雖然日本人口正在減少，但依然還是很擁擠

Michaelson Sarmiento
Japan has little to no natural resources so not allowing immigration is understandable. It is not an immigration country anyway like America or Australia is anyway.

日本是一個(gè)任何自然資源的國(guó)家，所以不允許移民是可以理解的。和美國(guó)澳大利亞不同，日本不是一個(gè)移民國(guó)家。

Andreas von Heidemann
Yet, there are a few considerations to be made:
Those retirees will inevitably due (unless anti-aging treatments become effective), and this will then free some sorely needed space in an over-populated country; a similar case is South Korea. In addition, less people means more resources available.

但我們要考慮到以下幾點(diǎn)
不管抗衰老治療多么的有效，這些退休的人最終都會(huì)不可避免的死去，這可以為人口過(guò)多的國(guó)家釋放出急需的空間，韓國(guó)的情況同樣也是如此。而且人口減少意味著可用的資源增加了。

The pension system is unsustainable because it would require new, perfectly working young people every year in terms of millions, which is rather impractical. The way public pension systems work in many below replacement level fertility rate countries nowadays ( i.e. current workers pay for current retirees) is simply unsustainable.

養(yǎng)老金制度是不可持續(xù)的，因?yàn)樗枰磕陻?shù)百萬(wàn)新的年輕人進(jìn)入職場(chǎng)，這是相當(dāng)不現(xiàn)實(shí)的。如今，在許多處于人口更替率以下的國(guó)家中，公共養(yǎng)老金體系已經(jīng)難以為繼。

Immigrants are also a cost: do you think that the thousands upon thousands of immigrants that your plan requires are all Japanese-speaking and highly educated? What about their families and old relatives?

外來(lái)移民同樣造成負(fù)擔(dān)：你認(rèn)為你計(jì)劃要求的成千上萬(wàn)的外來(lái)移民就都是受過(guò)高等教育會(huì)說(shuō)日語(yǔ)的人嗎？就算他們是，那么他們的家人和年紀(jì)較大的親戚呢？

Your post also does not take into consideration automation which is planned on replacing up to 40-50 % of jobs and, as technology evolves, even more complex jobs (from programmers to lawyers and even surgeons).

你的文章中同樣也沒(méi)有將自動(dòng)化技術(shù)考慮在內(nèi)，隨著技術(shù)的發(fā)展，自動(dòng)化技術(shù)預(yù)計(jì)可以取代40%到50%的工作，甚至更加復(fù)雜的，從程序員到律師甚至外科醫(yī)生的工作都有可能被取代。

Finally, your scenario is based on the idea of continuous growth, which is obviously unfeasible given the finite nature of Earth’s resources. Simply said, there is no way Japan can continue to grow demographically and economically.

最后，你的設(shè)想是基于持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的想法，但考慮到地球資源的有限性，這顯然是無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)的。簡(jiǎn)短地說(shuō)就是日本的人口和經(jīng)濟(jì)不可能繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)下去。

Geoffrey Widdison
Yes those retirees will eventually die, and more people will inevitably age. If reducing population is your goal, that’s fine, but it has to be managed slowly. A rapid decline in population is catastrophic because it requires highly skewed demographics.

沒(méi)錯(cuò)，退休人員最終會(huì)離世，更多人將會(huì)不可避免的老去。如果你的目標(biāo)是減少人口，那一點(diǎn)問(wèn)題都沒(méi)有，但必須要慢慢來(lái)。人口數(shù)量的急速下滑會(huì)造成災(zāi)難性后果，因?yàn)槿丝诮Y(jié)構(gòu)會(huì)被高度的扭曲。

You pose a problem without posing a solution. Pensions are sustainable only if the average worker pays as much into it as they’ll eventually take out of it (accounting for both interest and inflation). I agree that they need to be managed based on that, but you’ll always need a body of workers producing goods and services. If you run out of workers, you don’t have an economy.

你提出了問(wèn)題但卻沒(méi)有提出解決方案。養(yǎng)老金只有在收支平衡的情況下才能持續(xù)下去。我同意他們必須在此基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行管理，但我們必須要有能夠生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的工人。如果沒(méi)有了工人，那么也就沒(méi)有了經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。
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The cost of doing nothing is far, far higher. There’s a term in demographics known as the “demographic dividend”. When birth rates fall, there are fewer dependents to support, and a higher proportion of workers, so the economy tends to jump. Problem is, when that generation of children ages, you have fewer workers replacing retirees, and that dividend has to be paid back. Japan took that dividend for years, and now it’s time to pay the piper. Your choices are to have more children (and spend at least 18 years apiece raising and educating them) or let in more immigrants (and spend a somewhat lower amount of time and money integrating them into your society and economy). Japan’s ability to do the first is highly deteriorated, so the second is really the only option.

如果對(duì)此什么都不做的話，那么就要付出更多的代價(jià)。在人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)中，有一個(gè)叫人口紅利的術(shù)語(yǔ)。出生率下滑的時(shí)候，需要撫養(yǎng)的人數(shù)就會(huì)減少，勞動(dòng)人口的比例就會(huì)上升，經(jīng)濟(jì)就會(huì)向上發(fā)展。問(wèn)題在于，這一代孩子變老以后，可取代退休人員的工人數(shù)量就會(huì)減少，而到時(shí)就必須支付人口紅利的代價(jià)。日本多年來(lái)一直在享受這個(gè)紅利，現(xiàn)在是時(shí)候承擔(dān)后果了。你的選擇是生更多的孩子（但至少要經(jīng)過(guò)18年的養(yǎng)育和教育才能排上用場(chǎng)）或讓更多的移民進(jìn)入，讓他們?nèi)谌氡镜厣鐣?huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)，這樣就可以降低時(shí)間和資金上的成本。日本鼓勵(lì)生育的能力已經(jīng)嚴(yán)重不足，所以唯一可行的只有第二條選項(xiàng)。

Sean Lana
According to the Hofstede cultural dimension, Japan culture is also somewhat like the Germans where the relationship is valued. Its also an obligation to work at least 60 hours a week leaving less time for leisure, and procreation. The immigration laws aren’t also attractive to foreign workers. Recently they passed a bill that encourages the Japanese women to apply for more social benefits and money if they can have more kids, but the plan seems to be less effective! Hungary is another country going through a thesame thing and probably the USA will be next.

根據(jù)霍夫斯塔德的文化維度理論，日本文化和重視關(guān)系的德國(guó)文化有點(diǎn)類似。日本每周工作時(shí)間不少于60個(gè)小時(shí)，留給休閑和生兒育女的時(shí)間較少。日本的移民法對(duì)于外國(guó)工人來(lái)說(shuō)也沒(méi)有什么吸引力。最近日本通過(guò)了一項(xiàng)法案，如果日本女性能生育更多孩子的話，就可以申請(qǐng)更多的社會(huì)福利和金錢獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)，但是這項(xiàng)計(jì)劃似乎并不怎么有效。匈牙利會(huì)是另一個(gè)遇到這個(gè)問(wèn)題的國(guó)家，而美國(guó)可能就是下一個(gè)。

Sean Young
There's numerous studies that show increasing work loads quickly begin to give diminishing returns and eventually actually reduce overall productivity. It's become Vogue in Japan to fall asleep at your desk as proof that you're a hard worker.
Economy's grow on productivity, innovation and creativity. Overworked people become less productive, innovative and creative. Japan's solution to its economic stagnation of dialling up the work hours to 11 is the exact opposite of a solution.

有大量的研究表明，工作量的快速增加會(huì)導(dǎo)致收益遞減，最終會(huì)降低整體的生產(chǎn)力。在辦公桌上睡著以證明自己工作努力已經(jīng)成為了日本的一種時(shí)尚。經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展取決于生產(chǎn)率，創(chuàng)新和創(chuàng)造能力。而工作量過(guò)大會(huì)降低人們的生產(chǎn)力，創(chuàng)新以及創(chuàng)造力。日本解決經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯的方法是將工作時(shí)間延長(zhǎng)到11個(gè)小時(shí)，但這樣做恰恰適得其反。

Steven Lee
Other than healthcare, old people spend much less than young people. They are likely to already own their homes, own an old car and unlikely to change to a new car. These are the two costliest items that anyone would buy. The GDP drops when real estate and car sales stagnant. Their personal needs and entertainment cost far less than young people. As the population ages, spending reduces and the economy suffers.

除了醫(yī)療支出以外，老年人的消費(fèi)能力要遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于年輕人。老年人可能已經(jīng)擁有了自己的房子，還有一輛舊車，不太可能再去換新車。房子和車子是任何人都會(huì)買的最貴的兩樣?xùn)|西。當(dāng)房地產(chǎn)和汽車銷售停滯不前的時(shí)候，GDP就會(huì)下滑。老年人的個(gè)人需求和娛樂(lè)消費(fèi)能力遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有年輕人那么高。隨著人口老齡化，消費(fèi)下滑，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展就會(huì)遇到困難。

Vinith Subramaniam
IIRC the reason for this situation is because the Japanese are obsessed with work and avoid having a family/kids to make progress in their professional life.

出現(xiàn)這種情況的原因是日本人癡迷于工作，為了獲得事業(yè)上的發(fā)展而避免成家立業(yè)。

Lawrence Leichtman
Actually, there is a culture developing in Japan where younger men and women have little interest in each other. This contributes to the declining birth rate as well.

實(shí)際上，日本正在形成一種讓男女雙方對(duì)彼此都不感興趣的文化。這進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)了出生率的下滑。

Cheong Tee
Will AI solve the problem？

人工智能可以解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題嗎？

Geoffrey Widdison
The only realistic solution, at this point, is encouraging immigration of young people. Now, this would bring problems of its own, particularly in a country as monolithic as Japan, but there really aren't any other viable models. Japan, however, seems disinclined to promote this.

現(xiàn)在唯一現(xiàn)實(shí)的解決方案就是鼓勵(lì)外來(lái)的年輕移民進(jìn)入日本。但這又會(huì)帶來(lái)新的問(wèn)題，尤其是在日本這樣一個(gè)單一民族國(guó)家，但除此以外，已經(jīng)沒(méi)有其他任何可行的方法了。但是日本似乎并不愿意推動(dòng)移民計(jì)劃。

Shane Neary, Owns a dog
Poor corporate culture
Being a “good employee” is not marked by productivity, rather by how many hours you work. Many employees keep “working” even when there is nothing left to do.
This translates to poor levels of productivity. Currently, Japan’s productivity is below the OCED average and a third less than the US.
Then there is a lack of discussion within companies. Manager decisions are rarely challenged.
This also has to do with the strict hierarchy in Japan. You're not supposed to challenge someone “higher” than you.
You need to have robust discussions to be an innovator.

糟糕的企業(yè)文化
在日本，評(píng)價(jià)是不是一個(gè)好員工看的不是他的生產(chǎn)力，而是工作時(shí)間。許多員工在無(wú)事可做的情況下仍繼續(xù)“工作”。這使得日本的生產(chǎn)力水平很低?，F(xiàn)在，日本的生產(chǎn)力水平處于經(jīng)合組織平均線以下，不到美國(guó)的三分之一。
日本企業(yè)內(nèi)部缺乏討論。管理者的決策很少受到挑戰(zhàn)，這與日本嚴(yán)格的等級(jí)制度有關(guān)。你不能挑戰(zhàn)等級(jí)比你高的人。要進(jìn)行創(chuàng)新，就需要進(jìn)行活躍的討論。

QA:日本經(jīng)濟(jì)出了什么問(wèn)題？

QA:日本經(jīng)濟(jì)出了什么問(wèn)題？