日本經(jīng)濟(jì)：四十年來，超級(jí)大國是如何從體面墜落的
The Economy of Japan: how a Superpower FELL from Grace in Four Decades
譯文簡介
進(jìn)一步說明： 雖然日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力仍然廣受尊重，但它只是亞洲過去的冉冉升起的超級(jí)巨星。這個(gè)亞洲島國的經(jīng)濟(jì)為何如此差點(diǎn)超越美國成為第一經(jīng)濟(jì)超級(jí)大國，卻以通貨緊縮和停滯告終？ 我的意思是，現(xiàn)在情況變得如此糟糕，日本銀行為了扭轉(zhuǎn)這種局面而拼命購買了高達(dá) 70% 的政府債券，甚至成為日本企業(yè)的最大股東。這部迷你紀(jì)錄片涵蓋了從 1979 年到 2021 年的時(shí)期，跨越了日本的資產(chǎn)泡沫十年（以窗口指導(dǎo)和房地產(chǎn) + 股票泡沫為特色）以及隨后三個(gè)以債務(wù)通縮和銀行危機(jī)為特征的十年，通貨膨脹預(yù)期陷阱和人口下降，分別。它還對(duì)安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)（來自首相安倍晉三）進(jìn)行了批判性的審視，并包含對(duì)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)未來的建議。
正文翻譯
Money & Macro
In 1989, the world was simultaneously fearful and in awe of the rise of the magnificent Japanese economy. So…. What the hell happened?
1989年，世界對(duì)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的崛起既恐懼又敬畏。所以…。到底發(fā)生了什么？
Further descxtion:
While Japans economic might is still widely respected, it used to be the rising superstar of Asia. How did the economy of this Asian archipelago, which came so close to overtaking America as the number one economic superpower, end in deflation and stagnation?
I mean, by now it’s gotten so bad that the Bank of Japan, in a desperate attempt to turn this situation around, has bought up to 70% of government debt and has even become the biggest shareholder of corporate Japan.
This mini-documentary covers the period from 1979 till 2021 and spans Japan's asset bubble decade (featuring window guidance and the housing + stock bubble) as well as the three following decades that were characterized by debt-deflation and a banking crisis, the inflation expectations trap and population decline, respectively. It also has a critical look at Abenomics (from prime minister Shinzo Abe) and contains recommendations for the future of the Japanese economy.
進(jìn)一步說明： 雖然日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力仍然廣受尊重，但它只是亞洲過去的冉冉升起的超級(jí)巨星。這個(gè)亞洲島國的經(jīng)濟(jì)為何如此差點(diǎn)超越美國成為第一經(jīng)濟(jì)超級(jí)大國，卻以通貨緊縮和停滯告終？ 我的意思是，現(xiàn)在情況變得如此糟糕，日本銀行為了扭轉(zhuǎn)這種局面而拼命購買了高達(dá) 70% 的政府債券，甚至成為日本企業(yè)的最大股東。這部迷你紀(jì)錄片涵蓋了從 1979 年到 2021 年的時(shí)期，跨越了日本的資產(chǎn)泡沫十年（以窗口指導(dǎo)和房地產(chǎn) + 股票泡沫為特色）以及隨后三個(gè)以債務(wù)通縮和銀行危機(jī)為特征的十年，通貨膨脹預(yù)期陷阱和人口下降，分別。它還對(duì)安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)（來自首相安倍晉三）進(jìn)行了批判性的審視，并包含對(duì)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)未來的建議。
While Japans economic might is still widely respected, it used to be the rising superstar of Asia. How did the economy of this Asian archipelago, which came so close to overtaking America as the number one economic superpower, end in deflation and stagnation?
I mean, by now it’s gotten so bad that the Bank of Japan, in a desperate attempt to turn this situation around, has bought up to 70% of government debt and has even become the biggest shareholder of corporate Japan.
This mini-documentary covers the period from 1979 till 2021 and spans Japan's asset bubble decade (featuring window guidance and the housing + stock bubble) as well as the three following decades that were characterized by debt-deflation and a banking crisis, the inflation expectations trap and population decline, respectively. It also has a critical look at Abenomics (from prime minister Shinzo Abe) and contains recommendations for the future of the Japanese economy.
進(jìn)一步說明： 雖然日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力仍然廣受尊重，但它只是亞洲過去的冉冉升起的超級(jí)巨星。這個(gè)亞洲島國的經(jīng)濟(jì)為何如此差點(diǎn)超越美國成為第一經(jīng)濟(jì)超級(jí)大國，卻以通貨緊縮和停滯告終？ 我的意思是，現(xiàn)在情況變得如此糟糕，日本銀行為了扭轉(zhuǎn)這種局面而拼命購買了高達(dá) 70% 的政府債券，甚至成為日本企業(yè)的最大股東。這部迷你紀(jì)錄片涵蓋了從 1979 年到 2021 年的時(shí)期，跨越了日本的資產(chǎn)泡沫十年（以窗口指導(dǎo)和房地產(chǎn) + 股票泡沫為特色）以及隨后三個(gè)以債務(wù)通縮和銀行危機(jī)為特征的十年，通貨膨脹預(yù)期陷阱和人口下降，分別。它還對(duì)安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)（來自首相安倍晉三）進(jìn)行了批判性的審視，并包含對(duì)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)未來的建議。
評(píng)論翻譯
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Should seek advice on inflation from the Zimbabwe government..
應(yīng)該向津巴布韋政府尋求有關(guān)通貨膨脹的建議。
Seems like the us is still bitter with the Ronald Reagan thing
似乎美國仍然對(duì)羅納德·里根的事情感到苦澀
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
I'm watching this video and wondering if this is the upcoming future for the USA as well. We've been doing the exact same things.
我正在看這個(gè)視頻，想知道這是否也是美國即將到來的未來。我們一直在做完全相同的事情。
Plaza accord destroyed Japanese domestic economy. Monopolization of semiconductors of Japan was destroyed. Most of core technology and production had to shift outside Japan. I can say some of things are similar to workers in the US. They did not get their production back. Instead, capitalists all over the world enjoyed massive transition of factories went to other cheap labor work force countries such as China, Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asia. Many blue collar workers in Japan, US, Europe were effected.
廣場協(xié)議摧毀了日本國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)。日本的半導(dǎo)體壟斷被破壞。大多數(shù)核心技術(shù)和生產(chǎn)不得不轉(zhuǎn)移到日本以外。我可以說有些事情與美國的工廠相似。他們沒有恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)。取而代之的是，世界各地的資本家將工廠大規(guī)模轉(zhuǎn)移到其他廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力勞動(dòng)力國家，如中國、韓國、臺(tái)灣（地區(qū)）和東南亞。日本、美國、歐洲的許多藍(lán)領(lǐng)工人都受到了影響。
"To see what will happen to China, look at what happened to Japan..."
“看看中國會(huì)發(fā)生什么，看看日本發(fā)生了什么……”
to boost up the economy;
-turn the blind eye of officials accept briberies
-corruption in huge projects
-loans in banks
-send troops to Middle East and spent trillion dollars to defense... then you'll get inflation in return. That's what we face in Turkey.
提振經(jīng)濟(jì)；
—對(duì)受賄官員視而不見
- 大型項(xiàng)目中的腐敗
-銀行貸款
- 向中東派遣軍隊(duì)并花費(fèi)數(shù)萬億美元進(jìn)行防御......然后你會(huì)得到通貨膨脹的回報(bào)。這就是我們在土耳其面臨的情況。
They should have given tax cuts to the population and not the companies. Inflation will come through consumption and the people should get more spare time instead of working themselves to death. Japan is doing everything wrong.
他們應(yīng)該給民眾減稅，而不是給公司減稅。通貨膨脹會(huì)通過消費(fèi)來實(shí)現(xiàn)，人們應(yīng)該有更多的空閑時(shí)間而不是工作到死。日本做錯(cuò)了每一件事。
In my analysis,
Why Japan didn't retain its economy growths?
That's because Japan was focus on internal economy growths...
When the economy grows and balloons you have to manufactures and supplies demands must achieve. You need more lands, more workers and resources in order to sustain the growths.
Japan lately realise that their man power can't handle the pressure of demands, the resources and getting tighter and the competition are growing around the world.
What Japan have mess in this situation? They didn't expand their investment in other countries where the resources are abundance, man power, and cheap labors.....
I think Japan have realised it when belt and road initiative of China are on going...
在我的分析中， 為什么日本沒有保持其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長？ 那是因?yàn)槿毡緦Ｗ⒂趦?nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)增長...... 當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和膨脹時(shí)，您必須滿足制造和供應(yīng)需求。你需要更多的土地、更多的工人和資源來維持增長。 日本最近意識(shí)到，他們的人力無法應(yīng)對(duì)需求的壓力，資源越來越緊張，世界各地的競爭也在加劇。 日本有亂七八糟的情況？他們沒有擴(kuò)大在其他資源豐富、人力資源豐富、勞動(dòng)力廉價(jià)的國家的投資...... 我認(rèn)為日本在中國的“一帶一路”倡議進(jìn)行時(shí)已經(jīng)意識(shí)到了......
Seeing how china us have tariff war. Plaza accord was the reason how Japan fell. Increasing yen had no used for Japan export economy. Unfair Tariff US applied was against what they preached of globalization. US is what Japan was. Lending money and put in the stock market.
看看中國如何打贏關(guān)稅戰(zhàn)。廣場協(xié)議是日本衰落的原因。日元升值對(duì)日本出口經(jīng)濟(jì)毫無用處。美國征收的不公平關(guān)稅違背了他們所宣揚(yáng)的全球化。現(xiàn)在的美國就是過去的日本。借錢投入股市。
I'm not japanese but visited once, I would like to know more about the rural urban divide, I feel like there is an undercurrent in the BOJ's policies that reflects a shift between the prioritization of urban maintenance post Nikkei crash and after, but again visiting Tokyo didn't really illuminate that very well beyond hearing about how no one young ever wants to stay in smaller towns and villages.
我不是日本人，但去過一次，我想更多地了解農(nóng)村和城市的鴻溝，我覺得日本央行的政策中有一股暗流，反映了日經(jīng)指數(shù)崩盤后城市維護(hù)的優(yōu)先級(jí)之間的轉(zhuǎn)變，但再次訪問東京并沒有真正說明這一點(diǎn)，除了聽說沒有年輕人愿意住在小城鎮(zhèn)和小村莊之外。
There was no Inflation because central banks (when they do QE) do NOT print money - obviously. Central banks aren't even real banks. There is only one thing and that is growth. When a population and its economy grow, then this is inflationary - real banks aka private banks create credit to invest in the growing economy (money is just a tool to coordinate economic participants)....they created credit because there was a good risk/reward ratio (credit comes from credibility). When a population stops reproducing, ergo stops consuming, then real banks stop giving out credits to mom and dad's little business. The only thing that is there is us humans. There is no money outside of the epistemic domain. And we humans either reproduce or we don't. All the stuff around, what we call "the economy" is just a function of the population prospering. The growth of Japan and Germany didn't come from nowhere, those were the most powerful superpowers/per citizen during the war, which also had a reason - both were economic giants and innovators before WW2 - nations without big natural resources, nations that relied on science and engineering, hence they could easily switch to war production. You give those central "banks" aka politicians way to much credit. In fact, they control nothing. Neither the ECB, PBOC, IMF or the FED. No one is bigger than the world economy
沒有通貨膨脹，因?yàn)橹醒脬y行（當(dāng)他們進(jìn)行量化寬松時(shí)）不印鈔票——很明顯。中央銀行不是真正的銀行。只有一件事，那就是增長。當(dāng)人口及其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長時(shí)，這就是通貨膨脹 - 真正的銀行又名私人銀行創(chuàng)造信貸以投資于不斷增長的經(jīng)濟(jì)（金錢只是協(xié)調(diào)經(jīng)濟(jì)參與者的工具）......他們創(chuàng)造信貸是因?yàn)榇嬖诹己玫娘L(fēng)險(xiǎn)/獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)比率（信用來自信譽(yù)）。當(dāng)人口停止繁殖時(shí)，因此停止消費(fèi)，那么真正的銀行就會(huì)停止向媽媽和爸爸的小生意發(fā)放信貸。唯一存在的就是我們?nèi)祟悺Ｔ谡J(rèn)知領(lǐng)域之外沒有錢。我們?nèi)祟愐捶敝常床环敝?。周圍的所有東西，我們所說的“經(jīng)濟(jì)”只是人口繁榮的一個(gè)函數(shù)。
日本和德國的增長并非憑空而來，那些是戰(zhàn)爭期間最強(qiáng)大的超級(jí)大國/每個(gè)公民， 有一個(gè)原因——在二戰(zhàn)之前都是經(jīng)濟(jì)巨頭和創(chuàng)新者——沒有大量自然資源的國家，依賴科學(xué)和工程的國家，因此他們可以很容易地轉(zhuǎn)向戰(zhàn)爭生產(chǎn)。 你給了那些中央“銀行”又名政治家很多信用。 事實(shí)上，他們什么也控制不了。 無論是歐洲央行、中國人民銀行、國際貨幣基金組織還是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)。 沒有人比世界經(jīng)濟(jì)更大
America's future coming real soon. Isn't this where the USA is heading?
美國的未來很快就會(huì)到來。這不就是美國要去的地方嗎？
I’m no economist BUT governments that give money to the rich and Companies seem to not understand the true flow of money. If I already have lots of money I have the things I need so will save that money. Give that stimulus to the poor they need/want things and so will spend that money. By spending money demand rises hence the supply will need to rise and bam economy is going again.
我不是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，但給富人和公司錢的政府似乎不了解資金的真正流動(dòng)。如果我已經(jīng)有很多錢，我就有我需要的東西，所以我會(huì)省下這些錢。將這種刺激提供給他們需要/想要的東西的窮人，因此他們會(huì)花錢。通過花錢，需求上升，因此供應(yīng)將需要增加，經(jīng)濟(jì)將再次復(fù)蘇。
Most people do not realised that the decline of Japan is brought about by their ally USA ......
大多數(shù)人沒有意識(shí)到日本的衰落是由他們的盟友美國帶來的……
What I found funny is that, when inflation breaks out in Japan, people have tendency to save even more to prepare for the higher cost of living in near future, which would be an unfavorable attitude to Japanese government.
It prevents inflation from becoming uncontrollable, though.
我覺得好笑的是，當(dāng)日本爆發(fā)通貨膨脹時(shí)，人們傾向于更多儲(chǔ)蓄，為不久的將來更高的生活成本做準(zhǔn)備，這將是對(duì)日本政府不利的態(tài)度。 不過，它可以防止通貨膨脹變得無法控制。
Labour Productivity (output per full time eqivalent) is growing faster in Japan than in Europe and the US. The whole "stagnation" is a demographic effect. Japanese workforce is shrinking. That is exactly what happens (or will happen) in many European countries. We shall see what will happen to productivity in these cases.
日本的勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率（相當(dāng)于全職時(shí)間的產(chǎn)出）增長速度快于歐洲和美國。整個(gè)“停滯”是人口效應(yīng)。日本勞動(dòng)力正在萎縮。這正是許多歐洲國家正在發(fā)生（或?qū)l(fā)生）的事情。我們將看到在這些情況下生產(chǎn)力會(huì)發(fā)生什么變化。
I think a lot of this has to do with Japan's xenophobia. They are pretty anti-immigrant over there, and so their economic utility suffers with their declining young population.
我認(rèn)為這在很大程度上與日本的仇外心理有關(guān)。他們在那里非常反對(duì)（引進(jìn)）移民，因此隨著年輕人口的減少，他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)效用受到影響。
What you said made a lot of sense.
Japan could never have overtaken the US. It has a population and culture problem holding it back.
With less than half the population, it would've had to have a GDP per capita of more than twice that of the US.
And when it comes to culture, most Japanese do not like change regardless of the situation. They are also a people who would rather fix (or not) a problem than prevent one.
你說的很有道理。 日本永遠(yuǎn)不可能超過美國。人口和文化問題阻礙了它的發(fā)展。 在人口不到一半的情況下，它的人均 GDP 是美國的兩倍多。 在文化方面，他們也是一個(gè)寧愿解決（或不解決）問題也不愿預(yù)防問題的人。
Interesting technical explanation of the mechanisms that let to Japan's decline. Another much simpler explanation could be the saying that "no tree can grow into the sky". It is only natural that something that grows will finally stop growing and start declining. Poor people might have a strong motivation to work hard to improve their situation. When they are finally well off it is only natural that they become less interested in working hard. And this is when the decline starts. It is about the Ying and Yang thing.
有趣的技術(shù)性解釋了讓日本衰落的機(jī)制。另一個(gè)更簡單的解釋可能是“沒有樹可以長到天空”這句話。生長的東西最終會(huì)停止生長并開始衰退，這是很自然的。窮人可能有強(qiáng)烈的動(dòng)機(jī)努力工作以改善他們的狀況。當(dāng)他們終于富裕起來時(shí)，他們對(duì)努力工作不那么感興趣是很自然的。這就是衰退開始的時(shí)候。這是陰陽轉(zhuǎn)換。
I always wondered how Japan is still standing after decades of zero or negative interests. Theoretically this should lead to an enormous printing orgy which should lead to extreme inflation and therefore impoverishment of the populous which should result in riots protest and instability. But now I get why they took zero interests road the deflation was to enormous.
我一直想知道日本在幾十年的零或負(fù)利益之后如何仍然站立。從理論上講，這應(yīng)該會(huì)導(dǎo)致大規(guī)模的印刷（貨幣）狂歡，這應(yīng)該會(huì)導(dǎo)致極端通貨膨脹，從而導(dǎo)致人口貧困，從而導(dǎo)致騷亂抗議和不穩(wěn)定。但現(xiàn)在我明白為什么他們走零利率的道路了，通貨緊縮是巨大的。
1985 Plaza Accord plus the many oppressive trade disputes at the time between US and Japan and the systematic oppression of some Japanese conglomerates. Price the Japanese paid for US 'security protection' has indeed been very heavy. China has learnt a lot and will not let the US do that to her.
1985年的廣場協(xié)議加上當(dāng)時(shí)美日之間的諸多壓迫性貿(mào)易爭端，以及一些日本企業(yè)集團(tuán)的系統(tǒng)性打壓。日本人為美國的“安全保護(hù)”付出的代價(jià)確實(shí)非常沉重。中國學(xué)到了很多，不會(huì)讓美國那樣對(duì)她。
The economic boom of Japan just realized its full potential, it is not a failure. Problem with economists and bankers, they think their monetary policies can fix such problems whereas it is deep rooted in the people. The Japanese people are already overworked, plenty money, but little chance to spend the time and money. Not much output can be extracted.
Wanting growth, they need immigration and more temporary workers. While this problem will take decades to fix or realize growth, Japan is not alone. South Korea and China has plenty signs of the same problem.
While the US has plenty issues with slow and ageing immigration policies, it is not as bad as these SEA Asian countries. Despite their massive manipulation/failures with money, they still come out alright due to tech/innovation and spending brought by immigrants.
日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮剛剛充分利用了它的全部潛力，它不是失敗的。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和銀行家的問題，他們認(rèn)為他們的貨幣政策可以解決這些問題，但它深深植根于人民。日本人已經(jīng)是過度勞累了，錢很多，卻很少有機(jī)會(huì)花時(shí)間和金錢。 想要增長，他們需要外國移民和更多的臨時(shí)工。雖然這個(gè)問題需要幾十年才能解決或?qū)崿F(xiàn)增長，但日本并不孤單。韓國和中國有很多相同問題的跡象。 雖然美國在緩慢和老化的移民政策方面存在很多問題，但它并不像這些東南亞國家那么糟糕。盡管他們在金錢上進(jìn)行了大規(guī)模的操縱/失敗，但由于移民帶來的技術(shù)/創(chuàng)新和支出，他們還不存在問題。
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Japan is still a country with a large, highly educated and creative population. They are innovative in many sectors, and have built state of the art modern infrastructure. The only thing in decline about Japan is “financial” and some of us know how meaningless THAT is.
日本仍然是一個(gè)擁有大量受過高等教育和富有創(chuàng)造力的人口的國家。他們在許多領(lǐng)域都具有創(chuàng)新精神，并建立了最先進(jìn)的現(xiàn)代基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。日本唯一下降的是“金融”，我們中的一些人知道那是多么毫無意義。
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US saw Japan became world power house. So it blocked importing their products, and forced them to raise the Yen vs USD. After that Japanese party was over. Trump tried this to contain China in 2018/2019 by raising import taxes, cutting off high tech products to China, blocking Chinese students, etc. Real freedom minded.
美國看到日本成為世界強(qiáng)國。因此它阻止進(jìn)口他們的產(chǎn)品，并迫使他們提高日元兌美元匯率。在那之后，日本派對(duì)結(jié)束了。特朗普在2018/2019年試圖通過提高進(jìn)口稅，切斷對(duì)中國的高科技產(chǎn)品，阻止中國學(xué)生留學(xué)以遏制中國，真正的自由意識(shí)。
If Japan can survive the past financial crisis, does it mean China can survive its current economic problems since China has huge foreign reserves like Japan did?
如果日本能夠熬過過去的金融危機(jī)，是否意味著中國能夠像日本一樣擁有龐大的外匯儲(chǔ)備，能夠熬過當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)問題？
I think they doiin the right thing not prefering islam invading their values rather than losing some GDP points, I really hope if they ever try migration they do it from other east asian countries not moslims, moslims just aren’t worth it for a western country to take in.
我認(rèn)為他們做的是正確的事情，不喜歡伊斯蘭教侵入他們的價(jià)值觀，而不是失去一部分GDP，我真的希望如果他們嘗試（從外國）移民，他們會(huì)從其他東亞國家而不是穆斯林移民，穆斯林對(duì)西方國家來說不值得引入。
Japan is a poor example of an Asian “power”. Like it’s economy, Japan’s power is great on paper but the reality is much less impressive. Even their military exploits were just that, exploits. They exploited the corrupt, weakened Asian powers of the day and started a war they couldn’t finish resulting in unconditional surrender and the racist anti Asian media you see today in western countries. Japan has done far more harm to Asian interests than any other country. Ask their neighbors.
日本是亞洲“強(qiáng)國”的一個(gè)糟糕例子。就像它的經(jīng)濟(jì)一樣，日本的實(shí)力在紙面上很強(qiáng)大，但現(xiàn)實(shí)卻沒有那么令人印象深刻。就連他們的軍事功績都是這樣。他們利用當(dāng)時(shí)亞洲勢力腐敗、虛弱，發(fā)動(dòng)一場他們無法完成的戰(zhàn)爭，導(dǎo)致無條件投降，你今天在西方國家看到的反亞洲種族主義媒體。日本對(duì)亞洲利益的傷害遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過任何其他國家。問問他們的鄰居。
People shouldn't really worry about Japan. The interest and dividends from its foreign assets alone will more than sustain the standard of living. Japan is the single largest creditor in the world.
人們不應(yīng)該真的擔(dān)心日本。僅來自外國資產(chǎn)的利息和股息就足以維持生活水平。日本是世界上最大的單一債權(quán)國。
Japan had deflation for generations. In it's most productive, stable, and growing periods. Keynesian monetary policy has lead to the stagflation they're experiencing and refuse to cure.
日本幾代人都經(jīng)歷過通貨緊縮。在它最有生產(chǎn)力、穩(wěn)定和增長的時(shí)期。凱恩斯主義貨幣政策導(dǎo)致了他們正在經(jīng)歷的滯脹，并且拒絕治療。
This is common sense, with the amount of sadistic things they had done, how can such country with such inhuman attirude survive.
這是眾所周知的，他們做了那么多殘暴的事情，這樣一個(gè)沒有人性的國家怎么能生存下去。
You are doomed not to grow as a nation if you are an ally of US. They eat the cakes of their allies
如果你是美國的盟友，你就注定不會(huì)成長為一個(gè)國家。他們（美國）吃著盟友的蛋糕
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In reality, Japan inc was just like one big Huawei. US sanctioned and forced Japanese technology transfer until Japan lost its competitive edge. Unfortunately for Japan, it’s domestic market is too small and Japan never really developed another big market besides US.
實(shí)際上，日本公司就像一個(gè)大華為。美國制裁并強(qiáng)迫日本轉(zhuǎn)讓技術(shù)，直到日本失去競爭優(yōu)勢。不幸的是，日本國內(nèi)市場太小，除了美國之外，日本從來沒有真正開發(fā)過另一個(gè)大市場。
Deflation? NO. Stagflation? NO.
Look at the fundamentals. Always look at the fundamentals. Japan has a population of 120M people. Scarce resources. And limited territory size. It can only grow so much. Before shrinking to what demography had assigned it. There is no lost decade. The Japan of today is the maximum that can be achieved given Japan’s population and resource credentials
通貨緊縮？不。滯脹？不。 看基本面。總是看基本面。日本有1.2億人口。稀缺資源。而且領(lǐng)土面積有限。它只能增長這么多。在收縮到人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)賦予它的東西之前。沒有失去的十年?？紤]到日本的人口和資源憑證，今天的日本是它們可以達(dá)到的最大值
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It would have been expected since invasion of Hawaii done by Japanese army. They had been long aided to grow further and established the most powerful nation in North East Asia against Russian expansions to it. However Japan with conspiracies and plotting got revealed and resulted in the attack of US and GB. Japanese are as scary enemy as China to GB and US history.
South Korea is the only ally US and GB can count on. Koreans are always thankful of liberation made by US and GB
自從日本軍隊(duì)入侵夏威夷以來，這是預(yù)料之中的。他們長期以來一直得到幫助以進(jìn)一步發(fā)展并建立了東北亞最強(qiáng)大的國家，以對(duì)抗俄羅斯的擴(kuò)張。然而日本的陰謀被揭露，導(dǎo)致美國和英國被襲擊。對(duì)于英國和美國的歷史，日本人和中國是一樣可怕的敵人。 韓國是美國和英國唯一可以依靠的盟友。韓國人總是感謝美國和英國的解放
they lost the microchip war, the USA bombed them and made their chip manufacturing industry sink, nothing new, unfortunately for the US, the ally they chose to replace Japan resulted to be more dangerous that they anticipated, so China became their worst nighmare and was the reason of WW3
他們輸?shù)袅宋⑿酒瑧?zhàn)爭，美國轟炸了他們，讓他們的芯片制造業(yè)沉沒，這不是什么新鮮事，不幸的是美國，他們選擇取代日本的盟友結(jié)果比他們預(yù)期的更加危險(xiǎn)，所以中國成了他們最大的噩夢，也是第三次世界大戰(zhàn)的原因
You really understate the degree of population decline that Japan is experiencing. The population declined by nearly 500K people from 2020 to 2021 (JapanTimes, Aug. 5, 2021). If that continues (or accelerates), the country may genuinely die out.
你真的低估了日本正在經(jīng)歷的人口下降程度。從 2020 年到 2021 年，人口減少了近 50 萬人（日本時(shí)報(bào)，2021 年 8 月 5 日）。如果這種情況繼續(xù)（或加速），這個(gè)國家可能真的會(huì)滅亡。
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Excellent analysis. Thanks.
I see that auto industry will be challenging with Korea (united in short) and China competing for the international markets.
優(yōu)秀的分析。謝謝。 我認(rèn)為汽車行業(yè)將面臨韓國（簡稱統(tǒng)一）和中國爭奪國際市場的挑戰(zhàn)。
I lived in Japan and one thing I noticed, corporations were expected to over employ people to soak up the numbers of unemployed in society. Young people are paid less money because it’s expected they still live at home with parents. Girls were expected to marry and fall out of the employment market.
我住在日本，我注意到一件事，公司預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)過度雇用人員以吸收社會(huì)中的失業(yè)人數(shù)。年輕人的薪水較低，因?yàn)槿藗冾A(yù)計(jì)他們?nèi)匀缓透改敢黄鹱≡诩依?。預(yù)計(jì)女孩會(huì)結(jié)婚并退出就業(yè)市場
I think it is to be expected since Japan's population growth has declined for a few decades, and they don't have a huge immigrant population to fill the gaps. the number of participants in the economy is less than it was 20 or 30 years ago. Japan has a large elderly population that is growing. Priorities are changing. Japan used to be able to produce inexpensive products for the world, but China, Taiwan and South Korea have taken that role.
我認(rèn)為這是可以預(yù)料的，因?yàn)槿毡镜娜丝谠鲩L已經(jīng)下降了幾十年，而且他們沒有龐大的移民人口來填補(bǔ)空白。參與經(jīng)濟(jì)的人數(shù)少于 20 或 30 年前。日本有大量的老年人口，而且還在不斷增長。優(yōu)先事項(xiàng)正在發(fā)生變化。日本曾經(jīng)能夠?yàn)槭澜缟a(chǎn)廉價(jià)產(chǎn)品，但中國、臺(tái)灣地區(qū)和韓國已經(jīng)扮演了這個(gè)角色。
Japan's failure demonstrates the failure of Keynesian policies. And something important has not been mentioned in the video is the zombification of the economy due to these stimulus programs that cause a lack of competitiveness and lack of competition in companies. If Japan wants to be out of this eternal crisis it must improve its free economy, reduce bureaucracy, lower taxes and make cuts in public spending because with a debt like Japan's it is extremely difficult to grow economically. Neighboring countries like South Korea is what they did and they are doing much better, having a similar aging problem.
日本的失敗表明凱恩斯主義政策的失敗。視頻中沒有提到的重要一點(diǎn)是，由于這些刺激計(jì)劃導(dǎo)致企業(yè)缺乏競爭力和缺乏競爭，導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)僵化。如果日本想要擺脫這場危機(jī)，它必須改善其自由經(jīng)濟(jì)、減少官僚主義、降低稅收并削減公共支出，因?yàn)槿毡具@樣的債務(wù)很難實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。像韓國這樣的鄰國就是他們所做的，而且他們做得更好，也有類似的老齡化問題。
A long time ago, when President Gorbachev visited Japan, he said that Japan was the only country that had succeeded as a socialist country. Japan is a socialist country before it is a democracy, and it is a strange state system that is different from Com...ism. Japan is a socialist country before it is a democracy. History has proven that Japanese people, who are usually mild-mannered and docile, will, when cornered, make a concerted effort to kill others, even to the point of death. World War II was also led by the Japanese military, and when the emperor showed his acceptance of defeat, they even conspired to assassinate him. It is a known fact in Japan that when the U.S. troops landed, the military ordered to kill the U.S. soldiers even if all Japanese died, and even prepared a large amount of poison gas weapons along the coastline and in the mountains. Japan is a country with a strong samurai view of life and death.
很久以前，戈?duì)柊蛦谭蚩偨y(tǒng)訪問日本時(shí)說，日本是唯一成功成為社會(huì)主義國家的國家。日本在民主之前是社會(huì)主義國家，是不同于共產(chǎn)主義的奇怪國家制度。日本在沒有民主之前是社會(huì)主義國家。歷史證明，平日溫順溫順的日本人，在走投無路的時(shí)候，會(huì)齊心協(xié)力殺人，甚至到了亡的地步。二戰(zhàn)也是由日本軍隊(duì)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的，當(dāng)天皇表示認(rèn)輸時(shí)，他們甚至密謀暗殺他。日本眾所周知，美軍登陸時(shí)，軍方下令即使日本人全部自殺性攻擊美軍，甚至在海岸線和山上準(zhǔn)備了大量毒氣武器。日本是一個(gè)武士生死觀很強(qiáng)的國家。
The most important reason for Japan's relative ongoing decline is the U.S.-Japan trade war, which has gradually tapered off since the Plaza Accord.
Stop the propaganda, Americans.
日本相對(duì)持續(xù)下滑的最重要原因是美日貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，自廣場協(xié)議以來逐漸平息。 停止宣傳，美國人。
This video makes me laugh because it couldn’t be more inaccurate… in geopolitical terms Japan has traded its financial wealth for knowledge. Yeah, the 65% global monopoly on patents alone gives them a huge advantage over every other country, y’all really don’t get it. Money isn’t everything…
這段視頻讓我發(fā)笑，因?yàn)樗粶?zhǔn)確了……從地緣政治的角度來看，日本用其金融財(cái)富換取知識(shí)。是的，僅在專利方面 65% 的全球壟斷就讓他們比其他任何國家都有巨大的優(yōu)勢，你們真的不明白。錢不是萬能的……
Didnt Japan crash, because of the housing bubble in the 1980s. Also, didnt the IMF tell Japan, how to get out of the crisis, which was actually to benefit the dollar.. asking Japan to hyperinflate the yen.
Then a ton of American companies started trying to poach Japanese companies as the financial crisis got so bad.
Lets be frank here the IMF benefits the dollar.. and though its called international it has an American agenda.
Hence why the Chinese invented their own international fund, which ofcourse has a China agenda.
日本不是因?yàn)?80 年代的房地產(chǎn)泡沫而崩潰。還有，IMF沒有告訴日本，如何走出危機(jī)，實(shí)際上是為了美元受益。要求日本讓日元惡性通貨膨脹。 然后，隨著金融危機(jī)變得如此嚴(yán)重，大量美國公司開始試圖挖走日本公司。 坦率地說，國際貨幣基金組織使美元受益……盡管它被稱為國際組織，但它有美國的干預(yù)。 這就是為什么中國人創(chuàng)建了自己的國際基金，這當(dāng)然有中國的影響。
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Inreasing spending means also to inrease freetime and happiness about work.
The happier you are about your work, the more willing you are to spend. The more unhappy you are the more you feel you have to save.
增加支出也意味著增加空閑時(shí)間和工作的快樂。 你對(duì)工作越快樂，你就越愿意花錢。你越不快樂，你就越覺得你必須儲(chǔ)蓄。
How would Japan's central bank have made it work with just window guidance and restricted lending? Japanese businesses were suffering. If they'd let the businesses fall, there's have been massive unemployment.
僅憑窗口指導(dǎo)和限制貸款，日本央行將如何使其發(fā)揮作用？日本企業(yè)深受其害。如果他們讓企業(yè)倒閉，就會(huì)出現(xiàn)大量失業(yè)。
Actually recently things have become more expensive in Japan. But now due to Corona people save even more. As for population it might finally have the Japanese push to get ride of un productivity. They need so many people to do something.
實(shí)際上最近日本的東西變得更貴了。但現(xiàn)在由于新冠病毒，人們節(jié)省了更多（資源）。至于人口，它可能最終會(huì)受到日本人的推動(dòng)，以擺脫生產(chǎn)力的束縛。他們需要很多人來做事。
I work in a Japan company. When I travel to Japan for business, you can clearly see their workers have absolutely no life. They go to work in the morning and come back home 10 or 11pm. Much of the work could be automated but they are slow to adapt. Many wasted hours in useless meetings. There’s really no time to spend their money. Also majority of wives are still staying home even when government is subsidizing child care. But main problem I see is they don’t take on enough immigrants and refugees. How many Fortune 500 in the US were founded by first generation and 2nd generation immigrants? They really need human capital injection and diversity to truly have that entrepreneurship like the US.
我在一家日本公司工作。當(dāng)我去日本出差時(shí)，你可以清楚地看到他們的工人完全沒有生命。他們早上上班，晚上10點(diǎn)或11點(diǎn)回家。大部分工作可以自動(dòng)化，但它們的適應(yīng)速度很慢。許多時(shí)間浪費(fèi)在無用的會(huì)議上。真的沒有時(shí)間花他們的錢。此外，即使政府補(bǔ)貼兒童保育，大多數(shù)妻子仍留在家中。但我看到的主要問題是他們沒有接收足夠的移民和難民。美國有多少財(cái)富 500 強(qiáng)是由第一代和第二代移民創(chuàng)立的？他們真的需要人力資本注入和多樣性才能真正擁有像美國一樣的創(chuàng)業(yè)精神。
I lived in Tokyo for several years. This was an excellent video, I must say. The Japanese economy was always overvalued during the “bubble”, meaning it was unsustainable. What we’re seeing now is a “realistic adjustment” of its economy.
What Japan can’t combat is the declining population. Wage stagnation is the worst in the world - Japan is the only developed economy where wages are actually on the decline. It’s just too expensive to have kids. Not only that, but Tokyo especially is not a child-friendly environment. It’s worth mentioning here that Tokyo is the only region in the entirety of Japan where population numbers are stable (as that’s where all the jobs are). Currently there are 8 MILLION vacant properties across Japan.
I’ve heard some estimates that put Japan’s population at HALF what it is now in the next 30-odd years. And with that, I feel Japan will maintain a comfortable equilibrium.
我在東京住了幾年。這是一個(gè)很棒的視頻，我必須說。日本經(jīng)濟(jì)在“泡沫”期間總是被高估，這意味著它是不可持續(xù)的。我們現(xiàn)在看到的是其經(jīng)濟(jì)的“現(xiàn)實(shí)調(diào)整”。 日本無法應(yīng)對(duì)的是人口下降。工資停滯是世界上最嚴(yán)重的——日本是唯一一個(gè)工資實(shí)際上在下降的發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體。生孩子太貴了。不僅如此，東京尤其不是一個(gè)適合兒童的環(huán)境。這里值得一提的是，東京是整個(gè)日本唯一一個(gè)人口數(shù)量穩(wěn)定的地區(qū)（因?yàn)槟抢锸撬泄ぷ鲘徫唬?。目前，日本?800 萬處空置房產(chǎn)。 我聽說過一些估計(jì)，日本的人口在未來 30 多年里會(huì)減少現(xiàn)在的一半。到了那時(shí)，我覺得日本將保持一個(gè)舒適的平衡。
Who's responsible for the stagflation of Japan?
Answer: the police of the world Uncle Sam the worst kind of friend nobody wants
誰為日本的滯脹負(fù)責(zé)？ 答案：世界警察山姆大叔是沒人想要的最壞的朋友
All bullshit, Japan falling dawn fore the end from the coldware 1989, USA dont need Japan anymore. Japan a Kolonie from the USA, falling down 1989 to his normal level. Now 2021 growing against the militaer sector like 1930- 1945. a conflikt, a ware, ist needed, fore helping the sinking oekonomie?. Japan have anythink lerarnd from the 2.WW (atombombs 6. and 10. august 1945)? maybe they need some otherone (newone)? They are the watchdog in asia, against CHINA?
胡說八道，日本從1989年的冷戰(zhàn)結(jié)束前就衰落了，美國不再需要日本了。日本 來自美國的 Kolonie，1989 年降至正常水平?，F(xiàn)在 2021 年與 1930 年至 1945 年一樣的軍事部門正在增長。需要沖突、商品、幫助下沉的經(jīng)濟(jì)嗎？。日本對(duì)二戰(zhàn)（1945 年 8 月的 6 號(hào)和 10 號(hào)原子彈）有任何了解嗎？也許他們需要其他人（新人）？他們是亞洲的看門狗，對(duì)抗中國？
This might be a stupid question, and hopefully someone will explain just why it is so stupid. But why can’t they just print money. Doesn’t that always cause inflation?
這可能是一個(gè)愚蠢的問題，希望有人能解釋為什么它如此愚蠢。但是為什么他們不能印鈔票呢。這不總是導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹嗎？
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I think your theory is way more robust than most theorists on this topic, who simply pin the blame on the Plaza Accord. I would just propose one more factor: The decline of Japan coincided with the sweet spot of China's 40-year rise. Seems to me manufacturing has left developed countries like US and Japan at least during this period. No matter the efforts, manufacturing was not coming back to Japan.
我認(rèn)為你的理論比這個(gè)話題上的大多數(shù)理論家更有說服力，他們只是把責(zé)任歸咎于廣場協(xié)議。我只想提出一個(gè)因素：日本的衰落恰逢中國40年崛起的時(shí)間點(diǎn)。在我看來，至少在此期間，制造業(yè)已經(jīng)離開了美國和日本等發(fā)達(dá)國家。不管怎樣努力，制造業(yè)都不會(huì)回到日本。
There is a limit to constantly growing the human population size in order to prop up the economy, this planet has a finite amount of resources; humans have already caused irreversible destruction to this planet's environment and non-human lifeforms are undergoing a mass extinction event directly correlated to the increase in world human population (due to either consumption, pollution, waste, farming, urbanization expansion, fishing, deforestation, mining, water use etc). Economists regularly fail to factor in the environmental costs of infinite growth, and some might argue (i.e. me) the human population size is already too large compared to every other species of large animal on this planet (i.e. the animals not being enslaved, tortured and murdered for human consumption). Therefore a decrease in Japan's population size is not a bad thing and I think more countries should follow suit.
為了支撐經(jīng)濟(jì)，不斷增長的人口數(shù)量是有限度的，這個(gè)星球的資源是有限的；人類已經(jīng)對(duì)這個(gè)星球的環(huán)境造成了不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的破壞，非人類生命形式正在經(jīng)歷一場與世界人口增長直接相關(guān)的大規(guī)模滅絕事件（由于消費(fèi)、污染、浪費(fèi)、農(nóng)業(yè)、城市化擴(kuò)張、漁業(yè)、森林砍伐、采礦、用水等）。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家經(jīng)常無法將無限增長的環(huán)境成本考慮在內(nèi)，有些人可能會(huì)爭辯說（即我）與這個(gè)星球上所有其他種類的大型動(dòng)物相比，人口規(guī)模已經(jīng)太大了（即動(dòng)物沒有被奴役、折磨和被謀殺供人類食用）。所以日本人口減少不是壞事，我認(rèn)為應(yīng)該有更多國家效仿。
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How easy! Bring in more Turkish people. Inflation problem? Solved. I guarantee a 30% inflation in the first year alone! Population problem?... Hungarians and Russians won't cut it. You definitely need the Turkish lol.
多么容易！引進(jìn)更多的土耳其人。通脹問題？解決了。我保證僅在第一年就有 30% 的通貨膨脹！人口問題？...匈牙利人和俄羅斯人不會(huì)削減它。你肯定需要土耳其語哈哈。
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Your take really spot on. May I add additionally that Japanese have a creativity problem or lack thereof. What they are good at is improving on stuff others invent, but with Korea and China proving they are just as good in this arena , they as a whole have not managed to elevate to another level as the Americans have done.
你的看法真的很到位。我可以補(bǔ)充一點(diǎn)，日本人有創(chuàng)造力問題或缺乏創(chuàng)造力。他們擅長的是改進(jìn)別人發(fā)明的東西，但是隨著韓國和中國證明他們在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域同樣出色，他們作為一個(gè)整體還沒有像美國人那樣提升到另一個(gè)水平。
Iceland let their banks go bankrupt and their economy wasn't "destroyed". The economy is not based on banks, it's based on the trust of people in the financial system, which considers bankruptcy as a natural product of taking too many unjustified risks.
If financial institutions can risk without consequences, then there is no trust in the system, because it's proved that the system is rigged.
冰島讓他們的銀行破產(chǎn)，他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)沒有被“摧毀”。經(jīng)濟(jì)不是基于銀行，而是基于人們對(duì)金融體系的信任，金融體系認(rèn)為破產(chǎn)是承擔(dān)太多不合理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的自然產(chǎn)物。 如果金融機(jī)構(gòu)可以冒險(xiǎn)而不承擔(dān)后果，那么對(duì)系統(tǒng)就沒有信任，因?yàn)槭聦?shí)證明該系統(tǒng)是被操縱的。
It is Bible prophecy, America is supposed to be the last world power. Almost every country is richer than America because there culture and people have existed for thousands of years, America has only been around for 300 years but just like any last child you get everything for free and in this case, in this world America is the crabby child that has to be pampered.
圣經(jīng)預(yù)言，美國應(yīng)該是最后一個(gè)世界強(qiáng)國。幾乎每個(gè)國家都比美國更富裕，因?yàn)槟抢锏奈幕腿嗣褚呀?jīng)存在了數(shù)千年，美國才存在了 300 年，但就像任何最后一個(gè)孩子一樣，您可以免費(fèi)獲得一切，在這種情況下，在這個(gè)世界上，美國是暴躁的被寵愛的孩子。
Keep in mind that Japan's "fall" was from 2nd to 3rd place, and even if they fell to 4th or 5th, they'd still be a highly-developed, rich economy with high living standards and a high GDP per capita. It's just that they used to be growing rapidly, and now they're mostly stuck where they are in absolute terms, while falling behind the growth of other countries, which puts their relative position at risk.
請(qǐng)記住，日本的“下降”是從第 2 位到第 3 位，即使下降到第 4 位或第 5 位，它們?nèi)匀皇且粋€(gè)高度發(fā)達(dá)、富裕的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，生活水平高，人均 GDP 高。只是它們過去增長很快，現(xiàn)在它們在絕對(duì)值上大多停滯不前，落后于其他國家的增長，這使它們的相對(duì)地位處于危險(xiǎn)之中。
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Very well researched. Personally, I think all this govt meddling is not only counter-productive, but harmful in the long term. A capitalist economy will naturally expand and decline, over and over. People should be responsible for their own actions.
非常好的研究。就我個(gè)人而言，我認(rèn)為所有這些政府干預(yù)不僅會(huì)適得其反，而且從長遠(yuǎn)來看也是有害的。資本主義經(jīng)濟(jì)自然會(huì)一次又一次地?cái)U(kuò)張和衰退。人們應(yīng)該為自己的行為負(fù)責(zé)。
Sorry man, I wanted to watch the video but I had to stop at minute 10.
I find your video editing annoying to me, you switch video every 2 seconds in some parts of the video, switching for every word you mention, it is really hard to follow text and visual content.
Please go slower on the visual side, and as a tip I suggest to add more historical videos, those that last at least a few seconds on screen and still related to what you are talking about.
For example, I think I saw at least 10 soap bubbles shorts of 2 seconds because bubble was mentioned exactly 10 times, I don't see the need for this.
Content is really interesting, so please just take it as friendly suggestions. :)
對(duì)不起，我想看視頻，但我不得不在 10 分鐘時(shí)停下來。 我發(fā)現(xiàn)你的視頻編輯讓我很煩，你在視頻的某些部分每 2 秒切換一次視頻，為你提到的每一個(gè)詞切換，很難理解文字和視覺內(nèi)容。 請(qǐng)?jiān)谝曈X方面放慢速度，作為提示，我建議添加更多歷史視頻，這些視頻在屏幕上至少持續(xù)幾秒鐘，并且仍然與您正在談?wù)摰膬?nèi)容相關(guān)。 例如，我認(rèn)為我看到了至少 10 個(gè) 2 秒的肥皂泡短片，因?yàn)榕菽惶岬搅?10 次，我認(rèn)為沒有必要這樣做。 內(nèi)容真的很有趣，所以請(qǐng)把它當(dāng)作友好的建議。 :)
The deflation and business momofication era was a fault from the government and central bank, if the never ending cycle of interventionism never ends, japan will be forever in a strange situation.
通貨緊縮和商業(yè)化時(shí)代是政府和央行的錯(cuò)，如果永無止境的干預(yù)主義，循環(huán)永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)結(jié)束，日本將永遠(yuǎn)處于奇怪的境地。
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