網(wǎng)友討論：哪個發(fā)展中國家可以成為下一個發(fā)達國家？
What developing country will become the next developed nation?
譯文簡介
網(wǎng)友：第一批可以成為發(fā)達國家的（未來五年）：波蘭，匈牙利，克羅地亞，哈薩克斯坦，馬來西亞和智利。第二批（未來十年）：烏拉圭、巴拿馬、羅馬尼亞、產(chǎn)油國(沙特阿拉伯、阿曼、巴林、卡塔爾、阿聯(lián)酋和文萊)，土耳其，俄羅斯，和伊朗（如果伊朗經(jīng)濟可以恢復(fù)增長的話）......
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網(wǎng)友討論：哪個發(fā)展中國家可以成為下一個發(fā)達國家？
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1st group (next 5 years) - Poland, Hungary, Croatia, Khazakhstan, Malaysia and Chile.
2nd group (next 10 years) - Uruguay, Panama, Romania, Petrostates (Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrein, Qatar, UAE and Brunei), Turkey, Russia, and Iran (if its economy return to growth).
第一批可以成為發(fā)達國家的（未來五年）：波蘭，匈牙利，克羅地亞，哈薩克斯坦，馬來西亞和智利
第二批（未來十年）：烏拉圭、巴拿馬、羅馬尼亞、產(chǎn)油國(沙特阿拉伯、阿曼、巴林、卡塔爾、阿聯(lián)酋和文萊)，土耳其，俄羅斯，和伊朗（如果伊朗經(jīng)濟可以恢復(fù)增長的話）。
第三批（未來十五年）：哥斯達黎加、多米尼加共和國、特立尼達和多巴哥、巴西，阿根廷，墨西哥（如果他們的增長速度可以超過預(yù)期的話），泰國，中國，阿塞拜疆，白俄羅斯，塞爾維亞
50 years from now, we shouldn't be surprised if these countries have reached our current idea of developed.
EAST AND SOUTHEAST ASIA: Malaysia, Thailand, China
Indonesia*, Vietnam* and Philippines*
五十年后，如果下面這些國家可以達到我們目前所認(rèn)為的發(fā)達水平，那么我們也不應(yīng)該感到驚訝
東亞和東南亞國家：中國，馬來西亞，泰國，印度尼西亞，越南和菲律賓
Lebanon*, Turkey*, & Iran*
EASTERN EUROPE: Bulgaria, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Albania, Macedonia, Bosnia,
Ukraine* and Belarus*
西亞：阿聯(lián)酋、巴林、阿曼、科威特、沙特阿拉伯、卡塔爾、哈薩克斯坦、黎巴嫩、土耳其、和伊朗
東歐：保加利亞，羅馬尼亞，俄羅斯，塞爾維亞，阿爾巴尼亞，馬其頓，波斯尼亞，烏克蘭和白俄羅斯
Mexico*, Argentina*, and Brazil*
AFRICA: Tunisia, Morocco, Botswana, Namibia, Mauritius, Gabon
South Africa*, Algeria*
拉丁美洲:烏拉圭、智利、哥斯達黎加、巴拿馬、哥倫比亞、秘魯，多米尼加，特立尼達，墨西哥，阿根廷，巴西
非洲：突尼斯，摩洛哥，博茨瓦納，納米比亞，毛里求斯，加蓬，南非，阿爾及利亞
I would say Chile.
According to the latest Human Development Index, Chile ranked 35th, better than some developed countries in the EU such as Portugal and Slovakia.
我認(rèn)為智利可以成為發(fā)達國家
根據(jù)最新的人類發(fā)展指數(shù)，智利排名第35，高過歐盟的一些發(fā)達國家，如葡萄牙和斯洛伐克
They are also relatively clean from corruption. In the latest Corruption Perception Index, they are ranked 26th, significantly better than some established European countries such as Spain and Italy.
在人均GDP上，智利表現(xiàn)得也相當(dāng)不錯，他們得人均GDP與一些歐盟國家相當(dāng)，如克羅地亞
而且智利相對來說比較廉潔。最新的清廉印象指數(shù)中，智利排名第26，排名遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)好于一些老牌的歐洲國家，如西班牙和意大利
智利有相對良好的教育和醫(yī)療水平，中等較高的人均收入，和良好的治理能力，這些讓智利離成為發(fā)達國家只有一步之遙
Inequality Adjusted Human Development Index is the key. HDI just measures how rich a country is. Not whether many people are actually able to benefit from it.
不平等調(diào)整后人類發(fā)展指數(shù)才是關(guān)鍵。人類發(fā)展指數(shù)只能衡量一個國家的富裕程度，無法真正衡量是否有很多人真的從中獲益。
There is still poverty (20%+) and huge shantytowns. Very high inequality and low class mobility. Chile will not be a developed country until these problems are solved.
智利貧困率很高（20%以上），而且有規(guī)模龐大的棚戶區(qū)。智利不平等情況非常的嚴(yán)重，階級流動性很低。這些問題不解決的話，智利就無法成為發(fā)達國家。
The IMF describes countries with a GNI per capita of more than $15000 as advanced economies.
Countries that have an GNI of almost $15000 are:
Chile: $13530
Argentina: $11960
Uruguay: $15230 (but somehow not categorized as advanced economy)
Panama: $12140
Costa Rica: $10840
國際貨幣基金組織將人均國民收入超過15000美元的國家定義為發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體。
人均國民收入接近15000美元的國家：
智利13530美元，阿根廷11960美元，烏拉圭15230美元(但不知為何沒有被歸為發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體)，巴拿馬12140美元，哥斯達黎加10840美元
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In a couple of years also countries like Malaysia, Romania and Mauritius will follow, and later on Brazil and China.
Also some gulf nations like the UAE and Qatar have a very high GNI per capita, but are still not categorized as advanced economies
波蘭12680美元，匈牙利12570美元，
幾年后。馬來西亞，羅馬尼亞和毛里求斯的人均國民收入也會達到這個水平，之后是巴西和中國
此外，一些海灣國家，如阿聯(lián)酋和卡塔爾，雖然人均國民收入很高，但依然沒有被列為發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體
'Second' World countries such as Hungary, Slovakia Poland and Romania have the best chance to become developed countries in the future. They are already part of the EU and cheaper alternative for European companies setting up factories without having to invest in a less familiar setting such as Indonesia and Thailand.
These countries already have good infrastructure and already in the European unx. If these countries have the same GDP per capita with more developed countries such as France and Germany. I think that they are a developed country by default.
匈牙利、斯洛伐克、波蘭和羅馬尼亞等 "第二世界 "國家在未來最有可能成為發(fā)達國家。他們已經(jīng)是歐盟的一部分，對于要設(shè)立工廠的歐洲企業(yè)來說，他們不必一定要到不那么熟悉的印度尼西亞和泰國投資，匈牙利這些國家都是成本較低的可替代性選擇。
這些國家的已經(jīng)擁有了良好的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，并且還是歐盟的一部分。如果這些國家的人均GDP水平達到了法國和德國的水平，那么我認(rèn)為他們就會被默認(rèn)為發(fā)達國家。
I read many answers of this question ，you netizens listed many countries here which you think will become developed countries in the future，but there is no China. Don’t you guys think that the world’s second largest economic entity will become developed？ or you think China has been a developed country？
看了這個問題的很多答案，在這里你們這些網(wǎng)民列舉了你們認(rèn)為的很多未來可以成為發(fā)達國家的國家，但是卻沒有中國。難道你們不認(rèn)為世界第二大經(jīng)濟體未來不會成為發(fā)達國家嗎？或者說你們認(rèn)為中國已經(jīng)是發(fā)達國家了？
China is a developing country forever.China should become a leader of developing countries, not a developed country.
中國永遠(yuǎn)都是發(fā)展中國家。中國應(yīng)該成為發(fā)展中國家的領(lǐng)袖，而不是成為發(fā)達國家
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In the next decades it will be China. With the most potential. And I think China will be the last country in this world to be included inside Developed nation bracket. Strongly developed and not weakly developed.
Country like India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia(my country), Indonesia, Philippine, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico can just dream.
未來幾十年可以成為發(fā)達國家的是中國。中國是最有潛力的國家。而且我認(rèn)為中國是世界上最后一個進入發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體行列的國家。而且中國會成為高度發(fā)達國家，而不是弱發(fā)達國家。
像印度，斯里蘭卡，馬來西亞（我的祖國），印度尼西亞，菲律賓，巴西，阿根廷，墨西哥這樣的國家可以洗洗睡了
Argentina, Mexico and Malaysia SHOULD become “developed” The rest NO.
阿根廷，墨西哥和馬來西亞應(yīng)該可以成為發(fā)達國家。其他的不太可能
The last line is just pure BS. Indonesia and Sri Lanka will develop in a decade or two. Malaysia/India will take some more time but they too will develop in 3–4 decades, Malaysia will probably outpace India in this process.
最后一段話就是在胡扯。未來十到二十年，印度尼西亞和斯里蘭卡將會成為發(fā)達國家。馬來西亞和印度需要更多的時間，但未來三四十年它們會發(fā)展起來的，在這個過程中，馬來西亞可能會超過印度。
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Actually Argentina, Mexico, Malaysia and Sri Lanka have a standard of living similar to China and economies that are diversifying more and more everyday.
實際上阿根廷，墨西哥，馬來西亞和斯里蘭卡的生活水平和中國差不多，而且它們經(jīng)濟多樣化的水平在日益提升
The diversity of economics of these countries is nowhere comparable with China’s.
這些國家經(jīng)濟多樣性的水平和中國根本就沒得比
Argentina has a chance
阿根廷有機會成為發(fā)達國家
Many countries around the globe are close to becoming developed countries but as a result of the Coronavirus outbreak, their efforts have been hampered quite a lot…
世界上很多國家都已經(jīng)接近成為發(fā)達國家了，但由于新冠疫情的爆發(fā)，它們的努力受到了嚴(yán)重的阻礙
The economy has suffered a lot as a result of corruption and bad policies in the last years but Turkey is, at least in some of its regions, Western and Central, could be considered developed soon.
The country is open to trade and is a democracy.
All and all, close to being one if it was not for the latest economic catastrophes.
土耳其
由于腐敗和最近幾年糟糕的政策，土耳其的經(jīng)濟遇到了很大的麻煩，但至少土耳其的部分地區(qū)，如西部和中部，很快就可以達到發(fā)達國家的水平
土耳其對貿(mào)易開放，而且是民主國家，總而言之，如果最近幾年沒有發(fā)生經(jīng)濟災(zāi)難的話，那么土耳其離發(fā)達國家已經(jīng)不遠(yuǎn)了
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Ever since opening up to the International World and Market, they have been steadily developing after being shut off for decades.
It is as most developing countries plagued by corruption and other mismanagement issues but the countries potential is huge as it has the world's greatest energy reserves.
俄羅斯曾被封鎖數(shù)十年，在對國際市場開放之后，俄羅斯經(jīng)濟一直穩(wěn)步發(fā)展
與大多數(shù)發(fā)展中國家一樣，俄羅斯深受腐敗和其他管理不善等問題的困擾，但這個國家擁有巨大的潛力，因為俄羅斯擁有世界上最龐大的能源儲備
China is the world’s second largest economy, but that does not mean that it is a developed country as the GDP per capita is very low compared to the USA.
China has a huge population, the world’s largest, and is open to the World Market.
They have the world’s largest manufacturing industry and it is where almost all of our goods are made. The country has colossal potential and is a great rival to the USA.
中國
中國是世界第二大經(jīng)濟體，但這并不意味著中國就是發(fā)達國家，因為與美國相比，中國的人均GDP很低
中國擁有世界上最多的人口，對世界市場開放。中國擁有世界上最龐大的制造業(yè)，幾乎我們所有的產(chǎn)品都是中國制造的。這個國家擁有巨大的潛力，是美國的一大對手。
India is a developing country, which is said to pass China’s population in the coming decades.
The country has vast resources and is rivalling China in manufacturing.
As with most developing countries it has huge potential and is steadily improving however the Cast System is causing it some issues in development and the development is not spread around the country equally.
印度
印度是一個發(fā)展中國家，據(jù)說未來幾十年印度的人口將會超過中國
印度擁有豐富的資源，在制造業(yè)上可以和中國相互競爭
和大部分發(fā)展中國家一樣，印度擁有龐大的潛力，而且印度正在逐步提高自己的實力，然而，印度的種姓制度給發(fā)展都來了很多的問題，而且印度的發(fā)展在全國范圍內(nèi)并不平衡。
I don’t think India will ever become developed.
1.35 billion people and it keeps rising. Even the EU which has done everything right for 70+ years has less than 450 million people. India reaching the level of EU countries with its ever-growing population “soon” sounds extremely unlikely.
我認(rèn)為印度不會成為發(fā)達國家
印度有13.5億人口，而且還在不斷的增加。即便是70年來一向表現(xiàn)不錯的歐盟的人口也只有4.5億不到。隨著人口不斷的增長，印度要想達到歐盟國家的水平的可能性似乎非常的低
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I'll agree with China, somewhat agree with Turkey (not fully agree especially because its rising Islamism), but I doubt Russia because its major economic activity relies on raw materials, and India because its huge gap between the rich and the poor, illiteracy percentage, minority oppression, and caste system.
我同意中國會成為發(fā)達國家，部分同意土耳其可以成為發(fā)達國家（不是完全同意，尤其是因為土耳其正在興起伊斯蘭主義），但我認(rèn)為俄羅斯和印度無法成為發(fā)達國家，因為俄羅斯主要的經(jīng)濟活動依賴于原材料，而印度是因為貧富差距太大，文盲率非常高，壓迫少數(shù)民族，存在種姓制度。
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I am Indian. Caste system is there, but it is not hampering gdp.
我是印度人，印度的確有種姓制度，但這并不會影響到GDP的發(fā)展。
First is China.
Second (my guess) Chile. Their geography of (1) being a coastal country, (2) having a large desert region, and (3) the world’s demand for lithium over the next 20 years will propel them.
我覺得第一個應(yīng)該是中國
第二個應(yīng)該是智利。在地理上，智利屬于沿海國家，擁有很大的沙漠地區(qū)，未來二十年世界對鋰電池的需求會推動智利的發(fā)展
As of now, China is the only certain answer to this question.
There are a few other candidates: Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Turkey and a few other Latin American countries, but their economies are not as innovative as China’s, so they may well fall into the Middle income trap.
目前，中國是唯一可以確定能夠成為發(fā)達國家的經(jīng)濟體
還有其他的一些候選國家：馬來西亞，哈薩克斯坦，土耳其，和少數(shù)幾個拉美國家，但這些國家的經(jīng)濟不像中國那樣具有創(chuàng)新性，所以它們可能會掉入中等收入陷阱。
Going off the HDI, most formerly-com...st countries that joined the EU are developed or close to being developed. In the 1990s they were very poor.
These include Poland, Czech Rep., Slovakia, Hungary.
Ireland is pretty much considered a developed country by everyone now, but as late as the 1990s it was a lot poorer than most mainland Western European countries.
從人類發(fā)展指數(shù)來看，大部分加入歐盟的前共產(chǎn)主義國家都是發(fā)達國家或接近于發(fā)達國家。上世紀(jì)90年代，他們都還非常的貧窮。
這些國家包括波蘭，捷克，斯洛伐克，匈牙利
現(xiàn)在所有人都視愛爾蘭為發(fā)達國家，但直到上世紀(jì)90年代，愛爾蘭比大部分西歐國家都要窮的多。
Aside from that, Chile and Argentina are close to being developed, or are developed by some measurements.
Venezuela was close to being developed for a few years after 2010, but since then, it has collapsed and is now poorer than Colombia.
泰國和馬來西亞同樣被視為接近發(fā)達國家水平
除此以外，智利和阿根廷也接近發(fā)達國家水平，或者按照某些指標(biāo)來看，他們已經(jīng)是發(fā)達國家了。
2010年之后的幾年時間里，委內(nèi)瑞拉距離發(fā)達國家水平已經(jīng)很接近了，但從那以后，這個國家就崩潰了，現(xiàn)在比哥倫比亞還要窮。
Not sure about Thailand.
Although Bangkok is quite developed, it is messy, and there are no settlements outside of Bangkok with more than 1M people, showing the relative lack of urbanisation.
Malaysia is much closer to being developed- better governance (especially after the recent change in government), English-speaking, lots of natural resources, a skilled workforce. With less than half (32M) of Thailand's population, it has at least 10 cities larger than 1M, indicating much higher urbanisation.
我認(rèn)為泰國不一定能成為發(fā)達國家。雖然曼谷相當(dāng)?shù)陌l(fā)達，但非常的混亂，除曼谷以外，泰國沒有一個超過百萬人口的定居點，這表明泰國城市化水平相對較低。
馬來西亞要更加接近發(fā)達國家的水平，馬拉西亞的治理水平更好（尤其是在最近更換政府之后），馬來西亞人說英語，有豐富的自然資源，有熟練的勞動力。馬來西亞人口3200萬，不到泰國的一半，但馬來西亞人口超過百萬的城市有十幾座，這表明馬來西亞城市化的水平要比泰國高很多。
China will be one of the next Developed Countries since it has a very strong economy and a sharp drop in poverty.
中國會成為下一個發(fā)達國家，因為中國經(jīng)濟強勁，而且貧困率急速降低
Tanzania is going to be one of the fastest developing nation soon.
It already has the unique advantage of being the only sizeable country in Africa which has not suffered any political upheavals since independence. All transfer of power has been after free and fair elections.
Keeping the stable political climate in mind, Tanzania has recently in past five years discovered oil, gas and uranium.
This is in addition to the booming tourism industry which is thanks to Zanzibar, and Mt. Kilimanjaro.
坦桑尼亞很快將成為發(fā)展速度最快的發(fā)展中國家之一。
坦桑尼亞具有獨特的優(yōu)勢，它是非洲唯一一個自獨立以來沒有遭受任何政治動蕩的大國。坦桑尼亞所有的權(quán)力移交都是在自由公正的選舉后進行的。
除了穩(wěn)定的政治氣候外，坦桑尼亞在過去五年還發(fā)現(xiàn)了石油天然氣和鈾等自然資源。
除此之外，由于桑給巴爾島和乞力馬扎羅山的存在，坦桑尼亞的旅游業(yè)也在蓬勃發(fā)展。
Malaysia is the strongest candidate to be a developed country..malaysia have recently join “very high" HDI club at 0.802 score and have gdp per capita of 11k..malaysia will be high income nation around 2020–2024..and will be fully developed at 2025..romania, chile, argentina and uruguay will also be developed..china also have potential..kazakhstan and turkey will also join the group
馬來西亞是最有可能成為發(fā)達國家的經(jīng)濟體。馬來西亞最近的人類發(fā)展指數(shù)為0.802，加入了高人類發(fā)展指數(shù)俱樂部，人均GDP為1.1萬美元。馬來西亞將在2020年到2024年之間成為高收入國家。羅馬尼亞，智利，阿根廷和烏拉圭也將成為發(fā)達國家。中國也有成為發(fā)達國家的潛力。哈薩克斯坦和土耳其將來也能加入發(fā)達國家行列。