The biggest container ships ever built ply the world's oceans, but will physics and economics set some limits to how much larger these vessels can get?

有史以來最大的集裝箱船往返于世界各大洋，但建造更大型的船舶是否受到物理和經(jīng)濟(jì)因素的制約？

When the Ever Ace, one of the largest container ships in the world, eased out of Yantian port on 14 August last year and manoeuvred gingerly into the South China Sea, she had embarked upon a record-breaking voyage.

去年8月14日，世界最大的集裝箱船“長范”號駛離深圳鹽田港，小心翼翼地駛向南海，她開始了一次破紀(jì)錄的航行。

To date, no other ship has carried such a large volume of shipping containers – the equivalent of 21,710 20ft (6m) containers.

迄今為止，沒有任何船舶運(yùn)載過這么多的集裝箱——相當(dāng)于21710個20尺（6米）集裝箱。

The 399.9m-long (1,320ft) and 61.5m-wide (203ft) vessel is a true behemoth, but there are dozens of container ships of a similar size sailing today. Many more are currently under construction. Just two of them stacked vertically would be nearly as tall as the world's tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai.

399.9米長（1320尺）61.5米寬（203尺）的船舶是真正的龐然大物，但當(dāng)今類似尺寸的集裝箱船有幾十艘，還有更多正在建造當(dāng)中。其中只有兩艘采用垂直堆疊的方式，高度接近于世界第一高樓迪拜哈利法塔。

If you cast your eyes over a list of the largest container ships in the world, you'll soon notice that they are all 400m (1,320ft) in length or just less than that, and about 60m (200ft) wide. It is more or less today's upper limit for these vessels. There is a surprising number of reasons as to why – and also why you're unlikely to see any container ships much larger than this, perhaps ever. But what are they?

如果你瀏覽一下世界最大集裝箱船的參數(shù)，會發(fā)現(xiàn)它們長度都是400米（1320尺）或者更短，寬度大約60米（200尺）。這幾乎是當(dāng)今集裝箱船的尺寸上限，原因多得令人吃驚——這也是為什么你不太可能看到尺寸更大的集裝箱船，可能永遠(yuǎn)也看不到。但原因是什么？

There are around 5,500 container ships globally and together they are capable of carrying 25 million TEUs, or the equivalent of around 25 million 20ft (6m) containers. That's if they were all fully loaded at the same moment.

全球大約有5500艘集裝箱船，總載箱量2500萬TEU，相當(dāng)于大約2500萬個20尺（6米）集裝箱，這是它們同時滿載集裝箱的運(yùn)力。

As George Griffiths, editor of global container markets at S&P Global Platts explains, the global order book for new container ships will increase that total collective capacity by a gigantic 25% in just a few years.

標(biāo)普全球普氏能源資訊（S&P Global Platts）的全球集裝箱市場編輯喬治·格里菲思透露，在短短幾年內(nèi)，全球的新集裝箱船訂單將使總運(yùn)力大幅提升25%。

"We're seeing a lot more of the ultra-large container ships being built," he says. "The proportion of new ships that are moving over 14,000 containers is staggering."

“我們看到建造中的超大型集裝箱船越來越多”，他說道?！拜d箱量超過14000TEU的新船比例令人吃驚”。

In the last decade alone, the average capacity of a container ship has grown from less than 3,000 TEUs to around 4,500 TEUs. And there are currently more than 50 ships with a capacity of 21,000 TEUs or more. Practically all of them were built in the last five years.

僅在過去十年里，集裝箱船的平均載箱量從3000TEU增至大約4500TEU，現(xiàn)有50多艘集裝箱船的載箱量超過21000TEU。事實上，它們都是過去五年來新造的集裝箱船。


If ships become bigger, they may not be able to use waterways such as the Suez Canal

如果船舶變得更大，可能無法通過蘇伊士運(yùn)河這樣的航道。

However, these vessels stretch the limits of even the world's largest ports, says Griffiths. To load and unload containers, cranes must reach across the vessels. Container ships also have to turn, pass through locks and canals – including the Suez and Panama canals, which have size restrictions.

但是，這些船舶突破了世界最大港口的極限，格里菲思說道。起重機(jī)必須跨越這些船舶來裝卸集裝箱。而且集裝箱船必須轉(zhuǎn)彎，穿過船閘和運(yùn)河——包括蘇伊士和巴拿馬運(yùn)河，它們對船舶是有尺寸限制的。

It's crucial that vessels avoid running aground, too. In some ports, the largest ships actually sit so deep in the water that they touch the bottom and glide through the silt rather than float above it, says Stavros Karamperidis, head of the Maritime Transport Research Group at the University of Plymouth. Such a manoeuvre must be handled with extreme care.

船舶避免擱淺也很重要。在某些港口里，最大型的船舶吃水太深，以至于在海底淤泥中滑行，而不是漂浮在上方，英國普利茅斯大學(xué)“海運(yùn)研究小組”負(fù)責(zé)人斯塔夫羅斯·卡拉姆普里迪斯說道。這種操作必須慎之又慎。
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To accommodate ships much larger than the biggest in existence today would require a huge overhaul of port infrastructure. And that would be incredibly expensive, notes Griffiths: "Why would you invest in bigger ships if it means you have to invest eye-watering amounts of money in the ports as well?"

要想容納比現(xiàn)有最大尺寸還要大得多的船舶，需要徹底改造現(xiàn)有的港口基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。這樣做是極其昂貴的，格里菲思指出：“如果這意味著你還必須對港口進(jìn)行驚人數(shù)額的投資，那你何必投資建造更大的船舶呢”？

Karamperidis adds that the largest ships are also restricted in terms of where they sail because they are so vulnerable to heavy weather. They don't tend to cross the Pacific, for example, which can hurl violent storms at vessels. Medium-sized container ships sometimes lose hundreds of containers in the Pacific.

卡拉姆普里迪斯補(bǔ)充說，最大的船舶在什么海域航行也會有限制，因為它們特別容易受惡劣天氣的影響。舉例來說，它們一般不在太平洋上航行，因為在那里會遭遇劇烈的風(fēng)暴。在太平洋海域，中等尺寸的集裝箱船有時損失數(shù)百個集裝箱。

"That's why the [ultra large] vessels come near the coast, so they don't face big waves. It's a matter of stability," says Karamperidis. He adds that most US ports are not big enough to facilitate the largest container ships. Only a handful of ships with capacities approaching 20,000 TEUs have ever called US ports.

“這就是為什么超大型船舶在海岸附近航行的原因，這樣能避免遭遇巨浪，關(guān)乎船舶的穩(wěn)性”，卡拉姆普里迪斯說道。他補(bǔ)充說大多數(shù)美國港口不夠大，無法為最大型的集裝箱船提供便利。只有少數(shù)載箱量接近20000TEU集裝箱船曾?？窟^美國港口。

You may be noticing a theme. The limitations on vessel size are not so much to do with the sheer engineering challenges of building really big ships but rather the economics and logistics of operating such giants.

你可能注意到了一個主題。船舶的尺寸限制與建造巨型船舶所面臨的工程挑戰(zhàn)沒有太大關(guān)系，而與運(yùn)營這些龐然大物的經(jīng)濟(jì)和物流因素有關(guān)。
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As ships get bigger, they stress the capacity of even the biggest ports

隨著船舶越造越大，甚至最大的港口也會不堪重負(fù)。

"Physically, there's not really any limit," says Rosalind Blazejczyk, managing partner and naval architect at Solis Marine Consultants. She does, however, note there are only so many containers that one could stack on top of one another on a ship before the container at the bottom of the pile would buckle under the weight.

“物理上確實沒有制約因素”，索厲海洋工程技術(shù)咨詢公司的經(jīng)營合伙人和造船工程師Rosalind Blazejczyk說道。但她強(qiáng)調(diào)，堆疊在船上的集裝箱只能這么多，否則處在底層的集裝箱會受壓變形。

Containers are also lashed to hold them in place and such systems have upper limits for the number of boxes they could secure safely, notes John Simpson, Blazejczyk’s colleague at Solis.

集裝箱還需要被困扎固定，利用這種裝置安全固定集裝箱是有數(shù)量限制的， Blazejczyk在索厲公司的同事約翰·辛普森說道。

Another issue is how these very large and wide ships handle waves. When sailing directly into a sequence of waves, ships can experience a phenomenon called parametric rolling. It happens because, as the waves pass along the length of a very broad container ship, her bow and stern may clear the water whenever the peak of the wave is at the midpoint of the ship. This leaves the upper part of the bow and stern lacking the support of the water below. The variation in this support as waves continue to pass can cause the ship to bob weirdly from side to side.

另一個問題是這些又大又寬的船舶如何應(yīng)對海浪。當(dāng)船舶迎浪航行時，會發(fā)生一種被稱為參數(shù)橫搖的現(xiàn)象，因為海浪沿著非常寬大的集裝箱船行進(jìn)，每當(dāng)波峰位于船體中部時，船首和船尾可能脫離水面，使船首和船尾的上部失去船底水體的支撐。當(dāng)海浪的繼續(xù)行進(jìn)時，這種支撐上的變化會導(dǎo)致船體奇怪地左右搖晃。
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"You get very large roll angles with not very large wave heights," says Blazejczyk.

“即使浪高不是很大，也會造成很大的橫搖角度”，Blazejczyk說道。

Supersized ships are more at risk of this. And container ships also have very large hatches on their decks, which means their overall structure is weaker than some other vessels and more susceptible to torsion, or twisting.

超大型船舶在這方面的風(fēng)險更大，而且集裝箱船甲板上的艙口非常大，這意味著它們的整體結(jié)構(gòu)比其他船舶更薄弱，更容易受到扭轉(zhuǎn)力的影響。

"They're kind of like a shoebox with no lid," Blazejczyk adds. No problem in calm seas but, again, limiting when or where a ship sails likely also limits its usefulness.

“它們就像沒有上蓋的鞋盒子”，Blazejczyk補(bǔ)充道。海況平穩(wěn)時沒有問題，但船舶航行的時間和海域受限可能也會限制它的實用性。

Besides all of the above reasons, there is economic weather to contend with. Griffiths notes that the price of oil is exceedingly high at the moment and the largest container ships require huge volumes of fuel.

除了上述原因之外，經(jīng)濟(jì)上也存在制約因素。格里菲思指出，目前油價非常高，最大型集裝箱船的耗油量巨大。

Investing in even bigger vessels might not be the wisest financial choice in the future though, having said that, at the moment these costs are being more than covered by the astronomical freight rates worldwide. Such is the present demand for moving goods around.

從經(jīng)濟(jì)角度來說，未來投資更大型的船舶可能不是明智之舉。話雖如此，目前全世界天文數(shù)字的海運(yùn)費足以承擔(dān)這些成本，目前的航運(yùn)需求就是如此。


Containers have to be lashed onto the deck of ships, which limits the amount which can be carried

集裝箱必須被困扎在船舶甲板上，這限制了載箱量。

Karamperidis says that, for container ships with a capacity much higher than 25,000 TEUs to become viable, the economics of operating them would have to change. The Suez Canal will probably always act as a bottleneck for ships travelling from Asia to Europe but it's not impossible to imagine a 30,000 TEU vessel or similar one day traversing a route from China to, for example, a booming African port, says Karamperidis.

卡拉姆普里迪斯說，要想讓載箱量遠(yuǎn)高于25000TEU的集裝箱船具有可行性，就得從經(jīng)濟(jì)層面改變運(yùn)營方式。蘇伊士運(yùn)河可能永遠(yuǎn)是船舶從亞洲到達(dá)歐洲的瓶頸。但總有一天，30000TEU或類似的船舶從中國穿越航線，比如到達(dá)繁榮的非洲港口，這不是天方夜譚，卡拉姆普里迪斯說道。

"Maybe we'll see those kind of vessels going from Asia to Mombasa," he adds, referring to the largest port of Kenya.

“我們也許會看到那些船舶從亞洲到達(dá)蒙巴薩”，他指的是肯尼亞的最大港口。
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The 24,000 TEU ceiling on container ship capacity we see globally today is, more or less, a reflection of economic limits as much as it is about port infrastructure, the shape of the world's busiest waterways and engineering.

我們看到當(dāng)今全球集裝箱船的載箱量上限是24000TEU，或多或少反映出經(jīng)濟(jì)上的制約，同時也與港口基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、世界上最繁忙航道的形狀、工程領(lǐng)域有關(guān)。

But there's always that possibility that, given the right conditions, someone somewhere with enough money will one day commission a vessel that dwarfs even today’s gargantuan ships. It would certainly be a wonder to behold.

但總有一天，在合適的條件下，資金充裕的某人或某地會委托建造一艘更大的船舶，使當(dāng)今的巨型船舶相形見絀，這種可能性是存在的，那必將是個奇跡。