QA問答：烏克蘭實(shí)際已經(jīng)輸?shù)袅伺c俄羅斯的戰(zhàn)爭嗎？ AS回答：無論戰(zhàn)爭怎么結(jié)束，烏克蘭都輸了
Has Ukraine lost the war with Russia?
譯文簡介
QA問答：烏克蘭實(shí)際已經(jīng)輸?shù)袅伺c俄羅斯的戰(zhàn)爭嗎？ AS回答：無論戰(zhàn)爭怎么結(jié)束，烏克蘭都輸了
正文翻譯
Aya Shawn
National University of Singapore
No matter what the outcome of this war is, how it ends
Ukraine as a country, Ukrainians as a race.They have already lost.
不管這場戰(zhàn)爭的結(jié)果如何，如何結(jié)束
烏克蘭作為一個(gè)國家，烏克蘭人作為一個(gè)種族，已經(jīng)徹底失敗了。
1. The decline of racial genes
A large number of young men died in the war, and a large number of young women were lost to Europe and the United States.
This makes it difficult for paternally inherited genes to be passed on to the next generation.
This means that Ukraine, as an independent nation, is biologically dying.
1、種族基因的衰落
大量年輕男性在戰(zhàn)爭中死亡，大量年輕女性流失到歐美。
這使得父系遺傳的基因很難遺傳給下一代。
這意味著烏克蘭作為一個(gè)獨(dú)立國家或者民族，在生物學(xué)上正在走向死亡。
A large number of young men died in the war, and a large number of young women were lost to Europe and the United States.
This makes it difficult for paternally inherited genes to be passed on to the next generation.
This means that Ukraine, as an independent nation, is biologically dying.
1、種族基因的衰落
大量年輕男性在戰(zhàn)爭中死亡，大量年輕女性流失到歐美。
這使得父系遺傳的基因很難遺傳給下一代。
這意味著烏克蘭作為一個(gè)獨(dú)立國家或者民族，在生物學(xué)上正在走向死亡。
2. Huge debt makes it difficult for the country to recover
Ukraine's GDP will fall by 30.4% in 2022, and tax revenue will fall by 14.4% year-on-year. back to 2007 levels.
(Ukraine loses its ability to create wealth on its own)
Ukraine's defense expenditure will increase from US$3.49 billion in 2021 to US$31.25 billion in 2022, and its proportion in national budget expenditure will increase from 8.56% to 42.24%. (All foreign aid wealth was burned by the war)
Foreign aid is not a free gift, a large part of it is a loan. In 2023, Ukraine should repay its foreign debt of approximately US$17.9 billion, and in 2024, Ukraine should repay its national debt of US$17.8 billion. Even if the current debt remains unchanged, in the next few years, calculated based on the current debt balance, Ukraine's average annual debt repayment in the next five years will reach about 12 billion US dollars.
As of now, Ukraine’s debt balance has exceeded 100 billion U.S. dollars. The Ukrainian Finance Minister said that the debt-to-GDP ratio by the end of 2023 may exceed 100% under adverse circumstances.
2.巨額債務(wù)使國家難以復(fù)蘇
2022年烏克蘭GDP下降30.4%，稅收同比下降14.4%?；氐?007年的水平。
（這組數(shù)據(jù)意味著烏克蘭失去了自己創(chuàng)造財(cái)富的能力）
烏克蘭國防開支從2021年的34.9億美元增加到2022年的312.5億美元，占國家預(yù)算支出的比重從8.56%增加到42.24%。
（這組數(shù)據(jù)意味著所有的外來援助財(cái)富都被戰(zhàn)爭消耗了）
外援不是無償?shù)亩Y物，很大一部分是貸款。2023年，烏克蘭應(yīng)償還約179億美元的外債，2024年，烏克蘭應(yīng)償還約178億美元的國債。即使當(dāng)前債務(wù)保持不變，未來幾年，按照當(dāng)前債務(wù)余額計(jì)算，烏克蘭未來五年平均每年償還債務(wù)將達(dá)到120億美元左右。
截至目前，烏克蘭債務(wù)余額已超過1000億美元。烏克蘭財(cái)政部長表示，在最糟糕的情況下，到2023年底債務(wù)占GDP的比例可能超過100%。
Ukraine's GDP will fall by 30.4% in 2022, and tax revenue will fall by 14.4% year-on-year. back to 2007 levels.
(Ukraine loses its ability to create wealth on its own)
Ukraine's defense expenditure will increase from US$3.49 billion in 2021 to US$31.25 billion in 2022, and its proportion in national budget expenditure will increase from 8.56% to 42.24%. (All foreign aid wealth was burned by the war)
Foreign aid is not a free gift, a large part of it is a loan. In 2023, Ukraine should repay its foreign debt of approximately US$17.9 billion, and in 2024, Ukraine should repay its national debt of US$17.8 billion. Even if the current debt remains unchanged, in the next few years, calculated based on the current debt balance, Ukraine's average annual debt repayment in the next five years will reach about 12 billion US dollars.
As of now, Ukraine’s debt balance has exceeded 100 billion U.S. dollars. The Ukrainian Finance Minister said that the debt-to-GDP ratio by the end of 2023 may exceed 100% under adverse circumstances.
2.巨額債務(wù)使國家難以復(fù)蘇
2022年烏克蘭GDP下降30.4%，稅收同比下降14.4%?；氐?007年的水平。
（這組數(shù)據(jù)意味著烏克蘭失去了自己創(chuàng)造財(cái)富的能力）
烏克蘭國防開支從2021年的34.9億美元增加到2022年的312.5億美元，占國家預(yù)算支出的比重從8.56%增加到42.24%。
（這組數(shù)據(jù)意味著所有的外來援助財(cái)富都被戰(zhàn)爭消耗了）
外援不是無償?shù)亩Y物，很大一部分是貸款。2023年，烏克蘭應(yīng)償還約179億美元的外債，2024年，烏克蘭應(yīng)償還約178億美元的國債。即使當(dāng)前債務(wù)保持不變，未來幾年，按照當(dāng)前債務(wù)余額計(jì)算，烏克蘭未來五年平均每年償還債務(wù)將達(dá)到120億美元左右。
截至目前，烏克蘭債務(wù)余額已超過1000億美元。烏克蘭財(cái)政部長表示，在最糟糕的情況下，到2023年底債務(wù)占GDP的比例可能超過100%。
3. Loss of strategic resources and enterprises
When there is debt, there is a mortgage, and when there is reconstruction, there is a need for investment. After the armistice, foreign capital will pour into Ukraine in large quantities, taking advantage of Ukraine's debt crisis and fiscal crisis to control Ukraine's mineral resources and major enterprises at extremely low prices.
Ukraine's ability to create wealth will be in the hands of American and European capital, and the Ukrainian government will be unable to mobilize too many resources to build the country.
3、戰(zhàn)略資源和企業(yè)的流失
有債務(wù)就有抵押，有重建就需要投資。停戰(zhàn)后，外資將大量涌入烏克蘭，利用烏克蘭債務(wù)危機(jī)和財(cái)政危機(jī)，以極低的價(jià)格控制烏克蘭的礦產(chǎn)資源和各大企業(yè)。
烏克蘭創(chuàng)造財(cái)富的能力將掌握在美國和歐洲資本手中，烏克蘭政府將無法調(diào)動(dòng)太多資源來建設(shè)國家。
When there is debt, there is a mortgage, and when there is reconstruction, there is a need for investment. After the armistice, foreign capital will pour into Ukraine in large quantities, taking advantage of Ukraine's debt crisis and fiscal crisis to control Ukraine's mineral resources and major enterprises at extremely low prices.
Ukraine's ability to create wealth will be in the hands of American and European capital, and the Ukrainian government will be unable to mobilize too many resources to build the country.
3、戰(zhàn)略資源和企業(yè)的流失
有債務(wù)就有抵押，有重建就需要投資。停戰(zhàn)后，外資將大量涌入烏克蘭，利用烏克蘭債務(wù)危機(jī)和財(cái)政危機(jī)，以極低的價(jià)格控制烏克蘭的礦產(chǎn)資源和各大企業(yè)。
烏克蘭創(chuàng)造財(cái)富的能力將掌握在美國和歐洲資本手中，烏克蘭政府將無法調(diào)動(dòng)太多資源來建設(shè)國家。
4. The government loses its independence
Ukraine's post-war economy will be completely dependent on support and assistance from European and American countries. The Ukrainian government is unable to make its own choices and has completely become a vassal of other countries.
This situation is expected to continue for decades.
4.政府失去獨(dú)立性
烏克蘭戰(zhàn)后經(jīng)濟(jì)將完全依賴歐美國家的支持和援助。烏克蘭政府無法做出自己的選擇，徹底淪為別國的附庸。
這種情況預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)數(shù)十年。
Ukraine's post-war economy will be completely dependent on support and assistance from European and American countries. The Ukrainian government is unable to make its own choices and has completely become a vassal of other countries.
This situation is expected to continue for decades.
4.政府失去獨(dú)立性
烏克蘭戰(zhàn)后經(jīng)濟(jì)將完全依賴歐美國家的支持和援助。烏克蘭政府無法做出自己的選擇，徹底淪為別國的附庸。
這種情況預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)數(shù)十年。
5. Population loss
In this relatively wealthy region of Europe, a poor and miserable Ukraine cannot retain young people.
In the next few decades, young Ukrainians will use all possible means to leave Ukraine and live in Europe and the United States.
A country that has lost its young people has also lost the power to recover and grow.
5、人口流失
在歐洲這個(gè)相對富裕的地區(qū)，貧窮悲慘的烏克蘭留不住年輕人。
未來幾十年，烏克蘭年輕人將利用一切可能的手段離開烏克蘭，前往歐洲和美國生活。
一個(gè)國家失去了年輕人，也就失去了復(fù)蘇和發(fā)展的力量。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
In this relatively wealthy region of Europe, a poor and miserable Ukraine cannot retain young people.
In the next few decades, young Ukrainians will use all possible means to leave Ukraine and live in Europe and the United States.
A country that has lost its young people has also lost the power to recover and grow.
5、人口流失
在歐洲這個(gè)相對富裕的地區(qū)，貧窮悲慘的烏克蘭留不住年輕人。
未來幾十年，烏克蘭年輕人將利用一切可能的手段離開烏克蘭，前往歐洲和美國生活。
一個(gè)國家失去了年輕人，也就失去了復(fù)蘇和發(fā)展的力量。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
6.After making huge sacrifices, it is still difficult to join the EU
A very bad estimate is that Ukraine will be the poorest and most backward place in Europe in the next 50 years. The war is not over yet and the country has completely failed.
Many Ukrainians want Ukraine to join the European unx. After all, Ukraine has become an EU candidate country.
But I think this is fanciful. The EU cannot accept a beggar and then use the wealth of all countries to help him.
You must know that it has been 20 years since Turkey became an EU candidate country, but it is still blocked for various reasons.
Always remember: the EU is a club of rich countries, not a soup kitchen for poor countries.
6.付出巨大犧牲后，加入歐盟依然困難重重
一個(gè)非常糟糕的估計(jì)是，未來50年烏克蘭將成為歐洲最貧窮、最落后的地方。戰(zhàn)爭還沒有結(jié)束，這個(gè)國家已經(jīng)徹底失敗了。
許多烏克蘭人希望烏克蘭加入歐盟（從而變得富裕）。畢竟烏克蘭已經(jīng)成為歐盟候選國。
但我認(rèn)為這是異想天開。歐盟不會(huì)接受一個(gè)乞丐，然后動(dòng)用各國的財(cái)富來幫助他。
要知道，土耳其成為歐盟候選國已經(jīng)20年了，卻依然因?yàn)榉N種原因受阻。
永遠(yuǎn)記?。簹W盟是富裕國家的俱樂部，而不是貧窮國家的救濟(jì)處。
A very bad estimate is that Ukraine will be the poorest and most backward place in Europe in the next 50 years. The war is not over yet and the country has completely failed.
Many Ukrainians want Ukraine to join the European unx. After all, Ukraine has become an EU candidate country.
But I think this is fanciful. The EU cannot accept a beggar and then use the wealth of all countries to help him.
You must know that it has been 20 years since Turkey became an EU candidate country, but it is still blocked for various reasons.
Always remember: the EU is a club of rich countries, not a soup kitchen for poor countries.
6.付出巨大犧牲后，加入歐盟依然困難重重
一個(gè)非常糟糕的估計(jì)是，未來50年烏克蘭將成為歐洲最貧窮、最落后的地方。戰(zhàn)爭還沒有結(jié)束，這個(gè)國家已經(jīng)徹底失敗了。
許多烏克蘭人希望烏克蘭加入歐盟（從而變得富裕）。畢竟烏克蘭已經(jīng)成為歐盟候選國。
但我認(rèn)為這是異想天開。歐盟不會(huì)接受一個(gè)乞丐，然后動(dòng)用各國的財(cái)富來幫助他。
要知道，土耳其成為歐盟候選國已經(jīng)20年了，卻依然因?yàn)榉N種原因受阻。
永遠(yuǎn)記?。簹W盟是富裕國家的俱樂部，而不是貧窮國家的救濟(jì)處。
評論翻譯
很贊 ( 30 )
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· Oct 20
“Always remember: the EU is a club of rich countries, not a soup kitchen for poor countries.”
I think this rule may have been watered down a little to encourage NATO membership on Russia borders.
“永遠(yuǎn)記?。簹W盟是富裕國家的俱樂部，而不是貧窮國家的救濟(jì)處。”
我認(rèn)為這條規(guī)則可能已經(jīng)被淡化了一些，以鼓勵(lì)在俄羅斯邊境的國家加入北約。
· Oct 20
And that exception to the rules is bringing about a chasm between the rich North and the relatively less richer South within the EU…
這種規(guī)則的例外正在歐盟內(nèi)部富裕的北方和相對不富裕的南方之間造成鴻溝……
· Oct 21
I think a long drawn out war requiring solidarity but creating uneven outcomes for the NATO countries was another unanticipated of the US plan.
If it was thought about I would think that the USA anticipated a short sharp conflict using overwhelming force.
This conflict has caught the USA with its pants down and now they have a second front in Israel.
Karma is a bitch
我認(rèn)為一場曠日持久的戰(zhàn)爭需要團(tuán)結(jié)，但卻給北約國家?guī)砹瞬黄胶獾慕Y(jié)果，這是美國計(jì)劃外的情況。
如果考慮一下，我原來認(rèn)為美國會(huì)使用壓倒性的武力快速干翻俄羅斯。
結(jié)果這場巴以沖突讓美國措手不及，現(xiàn)在他們在以色列有了第二條戰(zhàn)線。
出來混遲早要還的
· Oct 21
East vs west, not north vs south.
The north vs south “chasm” is more political. The countries along the northern Mediterranean coast don't really care nor have much historic anymosity against Russia. Mostly because they have been beyond any Russian (or Soviet) army's reach.
But the wealth gap is between west vs east. The darker the blue, the higher the GDP per capita.
東方與西方，而不是北方與南方。
南北“鴻溝”更具政治性。地中海北部沿岸國家并不真正關(guān)心俄羅斯，也沒有太多歷史上對俄羅斯的敵意。主要是因?yàn)樗鼈兂隽巳魏味砹_斯（或蘇聯(lián)）軍隊(duì)的能力范圍。
但貧富差距存在于西方和東方之間。藍(lán)色越深，人均GDP越高。
引用維基百科，歐洲GDP分布，鏈接省略
· Oct 22
You gave some excellent points. Ukraine has indeed lost the war, and it is now a matter of time for the country, its government and its army, to simply collapse.
The events of the last 10 days show that there are moving parts in the rest of the world that will accelerate this collapse - the preoccupation with another conflict; the impending likely doom of US and EU economies both during the upcoming winter and due to their foolish monetary policies (the derivatives market is giving warning signals that sound much louder than 2007/2008). If someone thinks that those other moving parts will impact Russia or China, think again - sanctions have pretty much insulated Russia financially, its economy is set for growth this year just shy of 3% and they have a labor shortage.
給出了一些很專業(yè)的觀點(diǎn)。烏克蘭確實(shí)輸?shù)袅诉@場戰(zhàn)爭，現(xiàn)在這個(gè)國家、它的政府和它的軍隊(duì)距離崩潰只是時(shí)間問題。
過去10天發(fā)生的事件表明，世界其他地區(qū)的一些變化將加速這場崩潰——那就是對另一場巴以沖突的關(guān)注；美國和歐盟經(jīng)濟(jì)在即將進(jìn)入寒冬，由于其愚蠢的貨幣政策而可能面臨的厄運(yùn)（金融衍生品市場發(fā)出的警告信號(hào)聽起來比2007/2008年要響亮得多）。如果有人認(rèn)為這些其他變動(dòng)因素也會(huì)影響俄羅斯或中國，那就錯(cuò)了——俄羅斯對制裁幾乎免疫了，其今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)計(jì)將略低于 3%，甚至還存在勞動(dòng)力短缺。
Look for Russia to leverage this into one or several Protectorates to which they can invite other interested parties to co-lead under Russian conditions. Read: Hungary, Poland and Romania might get some mighty interesting grapes dangling before their mouths; NATO in disarray.
這次崩潰也許能使烏克蘭擺脫不可能的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)——他們唯一真正的選擇是讓俄羅斯分分割并接管這個(gè)國家，并告訴西方將所有的債務(wù)都去見鬼吧。
期待俄羅斯利用這一點(diǎn)建立一個(gè)或多個(gè)保護(hù)國，并邀請其他感興趣的勢力在俄羅斯的影響下共同領(lǐng)導(dǎo)。匈牙利、波蘭和羅馬尼亞可能會(huì)得到一些甜頭；而北約陷入混亂。
歐盟國家將被迫收養(yǎng)數(shù)百萬永久逃亡的烏克蘭人——這是一個(gè)可怕的負(fù)擔(dān)——這將進(jìn)一步削弱歐盟外交政策的穩(wěn)定性。俄羅斯將能夠按照自己的節(jié)奏逐步在那些歷史上屬于俄羅斯的地區(qū)進(jìn)行重建，并且由于人民的選擇而保留這些地區(qū) - 他們現(xiàn)在在馬里烏波爾正在這樣做，他們已經(jīng)徹底的轉(zhuǎn)變過去9年里克里米亞的局勢。
· Oct 20
Good read. Thank you.
很好的閱讀，謝謝你
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
James Lockland
· Oct 20
Yea this is mostly not right. If it’s a problem for Ukraine it will be doubly so for Russia.
Something to remember is the Baltic states and Poland joined NATO and the EU in a shitty state as well and all have grown much more economically stable and have grown in GDP. Their quality of life has improved dramatically as well. If Ukraine gets the win and joins EU and NATO it will end up better off.
Even if they are worse off economically they are better off because it’s better to be a member of a Voting organization like the EU than a slave to Russia.
Slava Ukraini
是的，這大多是不對的。如果這對烏克蘭來說是一個(gè)問題，那么對俄羅斯來說更是一個(gè)問題。
需要記住的是，波羅的海國家和波蘭在加入北約和歐盟時(shí)也處于糟糕的狀態(tài)，但所有國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)都變得更加穩(wěn)定，國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值也有所增長。他們的生活質(zhì)量也顯著提高。如果烏克蘭獲勝并加入歐盟和北約，結(jié)果將會(huì)更好。
即使他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況較差，也沒啥，因?yàn)槌蔀橄駳W盟這成員比成為俄羅斯的奴隸更好。
榮耀屬于烏克蘭
· Oct 22
You are a pro-Ukrainian supporter so you see everything positively, but looking at it impartially the answer is closer to reality than your point of view.
您是親烏克蘭的支持者，所以您對一切都持積極態(tài)度，但公平的說，答主的答案比您的觀點(diǎn)更接近現(xiàn)實(shí)。
· Oct 20
The poor Ukrainian people elected an incompetent president who did not hesitate to drag the country into the vortex of confrontation between the United States and Russia, and eventually became a victim of the confrontation between the two major powers! The first person responsible for a country's involvement in war is the president of the country! It is your mission to make people live happily and away from war!
可憐的烏克蘭人民選出了一位無能的總統(tǒng)，他毫不猶豫地將國家拖入美俄對抗的漩渦，最終成為兩個(gè)大國對抗的犧牲品！一個(gè)國家卷入戰(zhàn)爭的第一責(zé)任人是國家總統(tǒng)！讓人們幸福生活，遠(yuǎn)離戰(zhàn)爭是你的使命！