The ongoing deceleration in demand for electric vehicles is an early warning signal of a shakeout in the nascent industry, according to Wharton management professor John Paul MacDuffie, who is also director of Wharton’s Program on Vehicle and Mobility Innovation. EV leader Tesla is laying off more than a tenth of its global workforce, and other manufacturers like Lucid and Rivian have reported losses. Government subsidies have helped cushion those impacts, and more support by way of higher tariffs on imported EVs is on the way.

沃頓商學(xué)院車輛與移動(dòng)創(chuàng)新項(xiàng)目主任、管理學(xué)教授約翰·保羅·麥克達(dá)菲表示，電動(dòng)汽車需求的持續(xù)放緩是這一新興行業(yè)即將經(jīng)歷大洗牌的早期預(yù)警信號(hào)。電動(dòng)汽車領(lǐng)導(dǎo)廠商特斯拉正在裁減其全球員工超過十分之一，其他制造商如Lucid和Rivian也報(bào)告了虧損。政府補(bǔ)貼在一定程度上緩解了這些影響，而通過提高進(jìn)口電動(dòng)汽車關(guān)稅等更多支持措施也即將到來。

“What’s going on with electrification transition and the demand for electric vehicles … is a reset that’s almost like the starting up of a new industry,” MacDuffie said on the Wharton Business Daily radio show that airs on SiriusXM. (Listen to the podcast.) He pointed to predictions of a shakeout and consolidation within China’s EV industry, and said, “I’m sure we’ll see it here [in the U.S.], too.”

麥克達(dá)菲在SiriusXM播出的沃頓商學(xué)院每日商業(yè)電臺(tái)節(jié)目中表示：“電氣化轉(zhuǎn)型和電動(dòng)汽車需求的現(xiàn)狀……就像是一種重置，幾乎相當(dāng)于一個(gè)新行業(yè)的啟動(dòng)?！?他提到中國電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)內(nèi)的洗牌和整合預(yù)測，并表示：“我相信我們也會(huì)在美國看到類似的情況?！?/b>

For sure, any new industry will see many casualties as it evolves. “One out of 10 is considered a decent success ratio for entrepreneurial ventures of any kind,” especially in industries such as EVs that call for large capital requirements, MacDuffie said.

可以肯定的是，任何新興行業(yè)在發(fā)展過程中都會(huì)出現(xiàn)許多失敗者。麥克達(dá)菲說，“對(duì)于任何類型的創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)來說，十分之一的成功率都被認(rèn)為是不錯(cuò)的”，尤其是在需要大量資本投入的電動(dòng)汽車等行業(yè)。

Vertical Integration Is Key to Success

垂直整合是成功的關(guān)鍵

According to MacDuffie, vertically integrated EV makers like Tesla and China’s BYD can ride out a shakeout because they control large parts of their supply chains. Tesla, for instance, makes EV batteries and has invested in battery storage; it also coped with the recent global semiconductor shortage by redesigning its software to support alternative chips, as a Forbes report pointed out. “You have more control, you can present a more coherent product and a more coherent brand and identity if you control the whole [manufacturing chain],” MacDuffie said.

根據(jù)麥克達(dá)菲的說法，像特斯拉和中國比亞迪這樣的垂直整合電動(dòng)汽車制造商可以在行業(yè)動(dòng)蕩中幸存下來，因?yàn)樗鼈兛刂浦?yīng)鏈的大部分。舉例來說，特斯拉制造電動(dòng)汽車電池并投資于電池儲(chǔ)能；它還通過重新設(shè)計(jì)軟件以支持替代芯片，應(yīng)對(duì)了最近的全球半導(dǎo)體短缺問題，正如《福布斯》報(bào)告中指出的那樣。麥克達(dá)菲說：“如果你控制了整個(gè)（制造鏈），你會(huì)有更多的控制權(quán)，你可以推出更連貫的產(chǎn)品、更連貫的品牌和標(biāo)識(shí)?！?/b>

Among the likely EV casualties that MacDuffie pointed to is Fisker, which appears to be on the verge of bankruptcy. But he expected Rivian, another startup that is also facing challenges, to survive, because it has an “appealing product that’s been well received,” which will help it continue to draw investment.

麥克達(dá)菲指出，可能成為電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)犧牲者的公司之一是Fisker，該公司似乎正處于破產(chǎn)的邊緣。但他預(yù)計(jì)另一個(gè)也面臨挑戰(zhàn)的初創(chuàng)公司Rivian將會(huì)存活下來，因?yàn)樗小皞涫軞g迎的吸引人的產(chǎn)品”，這將有助于它繼續(xù)吸引投資。

Legacy Automakers Have an Advantage

傳統(tǒng)汽車制造商具有優(yōu)勢
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


Established automakers with EV products have another advantage over EV startups in that they can ride out the current demand slowdown by shifting to hybrid vehicles, MacDuffie noted. Several legacy automakers such as General Motors, Honda, Toyota, and Ford have taken such a portfolio approach to increase their hybrid offerings.

擁有電動(dòng)汽車產(chǎn)品的老牌汽車制造商相比電動(dòng)汽車初創(chuàng)公司還有一個(gè)優(yōu)勢，那就是它們可以通過轉(zhuǎn)向混合動(dòng)力汽車來應(yīng)對(duì)當(dāng)前需求的放緩，麥克達(dá)菲表示。幾家傳統(tǒng)汽車制造商如通用汽車、本田、豐田和福特已經(jīng)采取了這種多元化的策略來增加其混合動(dòng)力汽車的供應(yīng)。

Established automakers have another advantage over EV startups. “They already know how to do the design, the build, the supply chain, and the distribution,” MacDuffie continued. They also have the wherewithal to cross-subsidize their forays into new technology such as EVs, he added. “They can keep selling their existing product line and use those profits to cross-subsidize. That advantage is not available to a startup.” Such an advantage is especially useful when technology transitions get complicated or when demand growth slows down, he noted.

老牌汽車制造商相較于電動(dòng)汽車初創(chuàng)公司還有另一個(gè)優(yōu)勢?！八麄円呀?jīng)知道如何進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì)、制造、供應(yīng)鏈和分銷，”麥達(dá)菲繼續(xù)說道。他們也有財(cái)力通過交叉補(bǔ)貼來支持他們對(duì)新技術(shù)（如電動(dòng)汽車）的探索，他補(bǔ)充道?！八麄兛梢岳^續(xù)銷售現(xiàn)有的產(chǎn)品線，并利用這些利潤進(jìn)行交叉補(bǔ)貼。這個(gè)優(yōu)勢對(duì)于初創(chuàng)公司來說是不存在的?！彼赋觯?dāng)技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)型變得復(fù)雜或需求增長放緩時(shí)，這種優(yōu)勢尤其有用。

The demand slowdown hasn’t deterred new EV startups, especially those based on autonomous vehicle technology. MacDuffie pointed to Amazon subsidiary Zoox, an autonomous electric vehicle firm that is aiming for the robotaxi market. Another well-heeled EV startup is Aurora, an autonomous trucking company with backing from both Amazon and Toyota. “Where there’s a deep-pocketed investor that has a stake in you continuing, then you’re more likely to make it through this period of ferment than if you’re simply relying on the public markets,” MacDuffie said.

需求放緩并沒有阻止新的電動(dòng)汽車初創(chuàng)企業(yè)，特別是那些基于自動(dòng)駕駛技術(shù)的初創(chuàng)公司。麥克達(dá)菲指出，亞馬遜子公司Zoox是一家面向機(jī)器人出租車市場的自動(dòng)駕駛電動(dòng)汽車公司。另一家資金雄厚的電動(dòng)汽車初創(chuàng)企業(yè)是Aurora，這是一家自動(dòng)駕駛卡車公司，得到了亞馬遜和豐田的支持。麥克達(dá)菲表示，“如果有一個(gè)財(cái)力雄厚的投資者支持你繼續(xù)前行，那么你比單純依賴公開市場更有可能度過這個(gè)動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期?！?/b>
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


Building Supply Chains from Scratch

從零開始建立供應(yīng)鏈

Unlike with consumer electronics where an Apple could tap into an existing supply chain, the EV industry didn’t have “a bunch of contract manufacturing capacity sitting around just waiting for a great car design” that somebody comes up with, MacDuffie noted. The EV industry has faced hurdles in building out that supply chain from scratch. It has been hard for EV companies to obtain debt financing or venture capital financing because of the long wait before they can roll out their products and make profits, he explained.

麥克達(dá)菲指出，與蘋果可以利用現(xiàn)有供應(yīng)鏈的消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品不同，電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)沒有“一堆合同制造能力，只是坐在那里等待一個(gè)偉大的汽車設(shè)計(jì)”。電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)在從零開始建立供應(yīng)鏈方面遇到了困難。他解釋說，由于在推出產(chǎn)品并實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利之前需要長時(shí)間等待，電動(dòng)汽車公司很難獲得債務(wù)融資或風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本融資。

As a consequence, companies like Tesla and Rivian have had to rely on the public capital markets to finance those investments, but that has made them particularly sensitive to the expectations of equity investors, MacDuffie noted. “Investors and everyone watching the stock market are hanging on every announcement about your sales. Anytime you don’t meet a sales projection, the stock tanks.” Not surprisingly, the drop in demand for EVs has hurt the stock prices of Tesla, Rivian and Nio.

因此，特斯拉和Rivian等公司不得不依賴公共資本市場來為這些投資提供資金，但這也使它們對(duì)股權(quán)投資者的期望特別敏感。“投資者和所有關(guān)注股市的人都緊盯著你關(guān)于銷售的每一個(gè)公告。任何時(shí)候你沒有達(dá)到銷售預(yù)期，股票就會(huì)暴跌?！?不出所料，電動(dòng)汽車需求的下降已經(jīng)影響到了特斯拉、Rivian和蔚來的股價(jià)。

Policy Support Vital for EV Makers

政策支持對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車制造商至關(guān)重要

Government support has been crucial for the EV industry in these trying times. “If there were not government subsidies and priorities to advance the electrification transition, then I don’t think you would see all of the world’s automakers making big strategic bets on electrification, and you wouldn’t see as many startups either,” MacDuffie said. “They have the confidence that this transition will happen with so much government push behind it.”

在這個(gè)艱難時(shí)期，政府的支持對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)至關(guān)重要。麥克達(dá)菲稱：“如果沒有政府的補(bǔ)貼和推進(jìn)電氣化轉(zhuǎn)型的優(yōu)先政策，我認(rèn)為你不會(huì)看到所有世界汽車制造商在電氣化上做出重大戰(zhàn)略押注，也不會(huì)看到那么多初創(chuàng)企業(yè)。他們有信心，在政府的大力推動(dòng)下，這一轉(zhuǎn)型將會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)?！?/b>

At the same time, EV makers in the U.S. face a degree of policy uncertainty unlike their counterparts in China. “In the U.S., if there’s a change in political party, and a change in who’s in the White House, then we may see policy swings much more,” he said. “It makes American EV companies subject to more volatility and more risk because, what if all the subsidies are taken away all of a sudden in a few years?”

與此同時(shí)，與中國同行不同，美國的電動(dòng)汽車制造商面臨著一定程度的政策不確定性?！霸诿绹?，如果政黨發(fā)生變化，白宮的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人也會(huì)發(fā)生變化，那么我們可能會(huì)看到更大的政策波動(dòng)，這使得美國的電動(dòng)汽車公司面臨更多的波動(dòng)性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因?yàn)槿绻麕啄旰笏械难a(bǔ)貼突然取消怎么辦？”

On a recent trip to Germany, MacDuffie found that EV makers there are confident that their policymakers are committed to supporting the electrification of transportation; they are therefore surer of making their investments.

在最近一次德國之行中，麥克達(dá)菲發(fā)現(xiàn)當(dāng)?shù)氐碾妱?dòng)汽車制造商對(duì)政策制定者致力于支持交通電氣化充滿信心；因此，他們對(duì)投資更加確定。

MacDuffie said the impending consolidation among EV makers is a familiar theme for the auto industry. He recalled that after the birth of the auto industry in the early 1900s, there were hundreds of auto companies, but they consolidated into five or six companies in the 1920s and 1930s, and eventually into the Big Three of General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler (now part of Stellantis).

電動(dòng)汽車制造商即將到來的整合是汽車行業(yè)的一個(gè)熟悉主題。他回憶說，在20世紀(jì)初汽車行業(yè)誕生后，有數(shù)百家汽車公司，但在20世紀(jì)20年代和30年代整合成了五六家公司，最終形成了通用汽車、福特和克萊斯勒（現(xiàn)在屬于Stellantis）的三大巨頭。

As the EV industry braces for a shakeout, financial staying power will make the difference. “Anybody who succeeds in persuading the various sources of capital to come together, as Elon Musk did very well from lots of sources [for Tesla], you have more chance to survive,” he continued. “But any time you lose one of those incoming streams of capital, boy, you’re much more on the edge.”

隨著電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)準(zhǔn)備迎接一場洗牌，財(cái)務(wù)持久力將成為關(guān)鍵?！叭魏纬晒φf服各種資本來源聚集在一起的人，就像埃隆·馬斯克為特斯拉所做的那樣，你就更有可能生存下來，”他繼續(xù)說道?！暗灰闶テ渲幸粋€(gè)資本流入渠道，你就會(huì)更加岌岌可危?！?br />