移民對(duì)德國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)多大的問(wèn)題?

Andreas Klein
With no claims of completeness:
Many schools can no longer fulfill their obligation to provide physical education to kids, and many sports clubs can no longer train, because a great many gyms have been converted into shelters for refugees, with no indication of when they will be available again.
Some places that give out food to homeless and the poor (Bahnhofsmission, Tafeln) are having troubles because of refugees using these services (despite being provided for by the government).
Many Germans discover that it's really nice to help people in need, and that people of other colour and culture are actually pretty normal, too.

沒(méi)有全面性的聲明：
許多學(xué)校已無(wú)法履行向孩子們提供體育教育的責(zé)任，許多體育俱樂(lè)部也無(wú)法進(jìn)行訓(xùn)練，因?yàn)榇罅矿w育館已被改造為難民的臨時(shí)住所，且沒(méi)有跡象表明這些設(shè)施何時(shí)能夠再次使用。
一些向無(wú)家可歸者和貧困人群提供食物的機(jī)構(gòu)（如火車(chē)站傳教團(tuán)、食物銀行）因?yàn)殡y民使用這些服務(wù)而遇到了困難（盡管難民本應(yīng)由政府提供支持）。
許多德國(guó)人發(fā)現(xiàn)，幫助需要幫助的人是一件非常愉快的事情，而且這些需要幫助的人是來(lái)自不同膚色和文化背景的人，其實(shí)也很正常。

The rate of crime in 2015 was as follows: about 8.6% of all people in Germany were non-Germans, out of which about 50% were non-EU. For severe crimes (robbery, theft, sexual assault) a percentage of 20-35% of suspects were non-Germans (pickpocketing: 66%), which is way more than the population percentage (numbers from the Statistisches Jahrbuch 2015, pretty much the most official and neutral source you can possibly get). So, statistically speaking, foreigners in Germany are more likely to be criminal, or of being suspects. Now that 1.1-1.5 Mio. additional non-Germans are in the country, of which about half are migrants, not refugees, crimes rates can be expected to go up (or are already, no data on that found). Note: Above numbers are for suspects, not for convicts, for which the numbers are somewhat more hidden in the statistics and need some statistical juggeling I am not inclined to doing right now. Racial bias might be present, but is unlikely considering that all hell would break loose over the police in Germany if it were so (think: history).

2015年的犯罪率數(shù)據(jù)顯示：大約8.6%的德國(guó)居民是非德國(guó)人，其中約有50%來(lái)自非歐盟國(guó)家。在嚴(yán)重犯罪（如搶劫、盜竊、性侵犯）中，非德國(guó)人嫌疑人的比例為20-35%（扒竊案中這一比例為66%），這遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于他們?cè)诳側(cè)丝谥械谋壤〝?shù)據(jù)來(lái)源于2015年的《統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒》，這是你能得到的最官方和中立的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源）。因此，從統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)角度來(lái)看，德國(guó)的外國(guó)人更有可能成為犯罪者或嫌疑人?，F(xiàn)在，又有大約110萬(wàn)到150萬(wàn)的非德國(guó)人進(jìn)入德國(guó)，其中大約一半是移民而非難民，預(yù)計(jì)犯罪率將會(huì)上升（或者已經(jīng)在上升，但尚未找到相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)）。請(qǐng)注意，上述數(shù)字指的是嫌疑人而非已定罪者，定罪者的數(shù)據(jù)在統(tǒng)計(jì)中更加隱蔽，需要一些我現(xiàn)在不想進(jìn)行的統(tǒng)計(jì)操作。種族偏見(jiàn)可能存在，但不太可能，因?yàn)槿绻聡?guó)警方存在種族偏見(jiàn)，那將會(huì)引起極大的爭(zhēng)議（考慮到德國(guó)的歷史）。

Financially: Cities, not the federal state, have to pay for a lot of the services for refugees, and that's with most cities already being near bankruptcy. On the federal level, the surplus of the budget has been set aside to help refugees, and such is no longer available for investments or paying back debts. It is likely that this is no sufficient, and that Germany will have to take on new debts to care for the 1.1-1.5 Mio. migrants of 2015, plus the x migrants of 2016, plus the y migrants of 2017, plus the z migrants of ....
Those are some of the primary effects. The secondary effects, triggered by these, might actually be far more severe:

在財(cái)政方面：城市而非聯(lián)邦政府必須為許多難民服務(wù)買(mǎi)單，而大多數(shù)城市已經(jīng)接近破產(chǎn)邊緣。在聯(lián)邦層面，預(yù)算盈余已經(jīng)被預(yù)留用于幫助難民，因此不再可用于投資或償還債務(wù)。這很可能是不夠的，德國(guó)可能不得不承擔(dān)新的債務(wù)來(lái)照顧2015年的110萬(wàn)到150萬(wàn)移民，以及2016年、2017年以及未來(lái)年份的更多移民。
這些是一些直接影響。由這些影響引發(fā)的次級(jí)影響可能實(shí)際上要嚴(yán)重得多：

Increase in health insurance costs: Refugees receive free medical service for effectively every and any ailment. In particular the costs for dental services are at a very high level due to this, and the corresponding officials have already indicated that the costs for those that actually pay (aka, Germans and legal migrants) will increase quite a bit as a result.
Loss of trust in state safety: After Cologne, many people no longer believe that the police is able to protect them. Airguns and pepper spray are sold out in a lot of stores around Cologne, and republicwide the demand is ever increasing. Vigilante groups are forming as well. Additionally, Angela Merkel said in one of her rare interview a few months back, that the German state can not protect its borders. The severity of such a loss of core competency of a state should be apparent.

健康保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)用增加：難民實(shí)際上可以免費(fèi)獲得任何疾病的醫(yī)療服務(wù)。特別是牙科服務(wù)的成本因此變得非常高，相關(guān)官員已經(jīng)表示，那些實(shí)際支付費(fèi)用的人（即德國(guó)人和合法移民）的成本將會(huì)因此大幅增加。
對(duì)國(guó)家安全感的信任喪失：科隆事件后，許多人不再相信警察能夠保護(hù)他們。在科隆及周邊地區(qū)，氣槍和胡椒噴霧已經(jīng)售罄，全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)的需求也在不斷增加。民兵組織也在形成。此外，安格拉·默克爾在幾個(gè)月前的一次罕見(jiàn)采訪(fǎng)中表示，德國(guó)國(guó)家無(wú)法保護(hù)其邊界。這種對(duì)國(guó)家核心能力的失去信任的嚴(yán)重性應(yīng)該是顯而易見(jiàn)的。

Loss of trust in demoncratic process and debate: The centre is dwindling right now, with people that usually are reasonable-thinking flocking to the right-wing party AfD. Even though many disagree with their rhetoric or their leaders, they see this as the only option to voice their opinion, as the usually central-right party CDU has veered to the central-left under Merkel's rule. At the same time, the left-extremists (Die lixe, which, ironically, is the very same party that ordered people trying to flee from East Germany to be shot, back in the day - they renamed themselves a couple of times in an effort to have people forget that - and the Green Party) are attacking (verbally and physically) AfD politicians and branding everyone right of the centre as racists. The more moderate left party (SPD) is trying to figure out what they want, and are constantly changing course. The right extremists think they now have the backing of the majority, and are becoming more aggressive, with numerous attacks on refugee shelters. So both left and right are radicalizing, and in many instances the politically moderate refuse to talk to each other, in particular the ones central-left and left extremists. As respectful debate with your political opponent, even if you think he/she is a moron, is a core principle of democracy, this is bad. Very bad. Think 1930s bad.

對(duì)民主程序和辯論失去信任;：目前，中間派比例正在縮小，通常思維合理的人紛紛轉(zhuǎn)向右翼政黨AfD。盡管許多人不同意他們的言論或領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，但他們認(rèn)為這是表達(dá)意見(jiàn)的唯一選擇，因?yàn)橥ǔ５闹杏乙碚hCDU在默克爾的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)向中左翼。與此同時(shí)，左翼極端分子（Die lixe，具有諷刺意味的是，這正是那個(gè)下令射殺試圖逃離東德的人的政黨，他們改了幾次名字，試圖讓人們忘記這一點(diǎn)——和綠黨）正在攻擊（口頭和身體上）AfD政治家，并將所有中右翼的人標(biāo)記為種族主義者。更溫和的左翼政黨（SPD）正在試圖弄清楚他們想要什么，并且不斷改變方向。右翼極端分子認(rèn)為他們現(xiàn)在得到了大多數(shù)人的支持，并且變得更加激進(jìn)，對(duì)難民庇護(hù)所發(fā)動(dòng)了多次攻擊。因此，左右兩派都在激進(jìn)化，而且在許多情況下，政治上溫和的人拒絕相互交談，特別是中左翼和左翼極端分子。尊重地與你的政敵進(jìn)行辯論，即使你認(rèn)為他/她是個(gè)白癡，也是民主的核心原則，這種情況是不好的，非常不好，想想1930年代的糟糕情況吧。

Guido Müller
That very much depends on several factors:
Up to now, Germany let an overwhelming number of migrants into the country, but developed no stringent concept how to deal with them. For instance, it needs weeks or months to register them properly, with fingerprints and everything. Many of them have stayed in several places, virtually blowing up the numbers. Recently, they talked about one place, were more then 300 refugees and asylum seekers were reported, but actually only half the number was really present at that place.

這在很大程度上取決于幾個(gè)因素：
迄今為止，德國(guó)已經(jīng)接納了大量移民，但尚未形成一個(gè)嚴(yán)格的處理機(jī)制。例如，正確登記他們，包括采集指紋等，可能需要幾周甚至幾個(gè)月的時(shí)間。許多人在多個(gè)地方停留，這實(shí)際上增加了統(tǒng)計(jì)上的數(shù)字。最近有報(bào)道說(shuō)，一個(gè)地方報(bào)告了300多名難民和尋求庇護(hù)者，但實(shí)際上只有一半的人真正在那里。

This calls for a central administration like a Federal Ministry (which actually existed until the 60es for the migrants of the former German regions). Such ministry also would have to deal with sending back refugees or migrants, who were denied an asylum title. Currently this lies in the responsibility of the federal states.

這種情況需要一個(gè)中央管理機(jī)構(gòu)，比如一個(gè)聯(lián)邦部門(mén)（實(shí)際上，直到60年代，德國(guó)還設(shè)有這樣的部門(mén)來(lái)處理前德國(guó)地區(qū)的移民事務(wù)）。這樣的部門(mén)還需要負(fù)責(zé)遣返那些申請(qǐng)庇護(hù)被拒的難民或移民。目前，這項(xiàng)工作是由各聯(lián)邦州負(fù)責(zé)的。

Germany denied up to now to be a migration country at all; it is quite difficult for a non-EU-resident to migrate to Germany. Often our demographic problem is addressed - to be clear, most of the refugees and migrants won't contribute much in an economic sense for the next 10-15 yrs., since they lack the qualification needed. We don't need any "work forces", that was the case back in the 70s. Nowadays, low-qualified work has long moved out of Germany to India, China and other Asian countries. We just have a need of some very well educated persons, and they are hard to convince to come to Germany, mostly because of the language. So at least we would need rules as any other migration country (USA, Canada, Australia...).

德國(guó)一直否認(rèn)自己是一個(gè)移民國(guó)家；對(duì)于非歐盟居民來(lái)說(shuō)，移民到德國(guó)是非常困難的。我們的人口問(wèn)題經(jīng)常被提及——需要明確的是，大多數(shù)難民和移民在未來(lái)10到15年內(nèi)在經(jīng)濟(jì)上不會(huì)做出太多貢獻(xiàn)，因?yàn)樗麄內(nèi)狈λ璧馁Y質(zhì)。我們并不需要任何“勞動(dòng)力”，那是70年代的情況。如今，低技能工作早已轉(zhuǎn)移到印度、中國(guó)和其他亞洲國(guó)家。我們真正需要的是一些受過(guò)良好教育的人才，但他們很難被說(shuō)服來(lái)德國(guó)，主要是因?yàn)檎Z(yǔ)言障礙。所以至少我們需要像其他移民國(guó)家（如美國(guó)、加拿大、澳大利亞等）那樣的規(guī)則。

We took in about 700.000 refugees during the Balkan wars in the 90s. More then 90% returned home after a couple of years, when the situation relaxed. Nobody knows, if the situation in Syria will ever be that good again, that people could return home safe. Just look at Afghanistan.

在90年代的巴爾干戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中，我們接納了大約70萬(wàn)難民。幾年后，當(dāng)局勢(shì)緩和時(shí)，超過(guò)90%的人返回了家園。沒(méi)有人知道，敘利亞的局勢(shì)是否會(huì)再次變得那么好，讓人們可以安全回家。看看阿富汗的情況就知道了。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處

And we have for the first time once WWII the situation of a mass-exodus from a whole region, fleeing the war, but also the hopeless situation in North-Africa. And as long as most of Europe is that much better of, there will be no stopping - no matter if Germany at some time tries to limit migration. Or any small country like Hungary erects fences around. There will always be a way. Look at Mexico and the US, if you will have an out view.

而且，這是二戰(zhàn)后我們第一次面臨整個(gè)地區(qū)大規(guī)模的人口外流，人們逃離戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，也逃離北非的絕望境況。只要?dú)W洲大部分地區(qū)的情況要好得多，就無(wú)法阻止人們流動(dòng)——無(wú)論德國(guó)何時(shí)試圖限制移民，或者像匈牙利這樣的小國(guó)圍繞自己建立圍欄?？倳?huì)有辦法的?？纯茨鞲绾兔绹?guó)的情況就知道了。

So overall, yes, it's a big problem, for the whole of Europe. If Germany starts closing the gates, the Schengen-area will break down - as Mr. Juncker, the president of the EU, put it: the Euro makes no sense without Schengen. A severe warning.

因此，總的來(lái)說(shuō)，這對(duì)整個(gè)歐洲來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)大問(wèn)題。如果德國(guó)開(kāi)始關(guān)閉大門(mén)，申根區(qū)將會(huì)崩潰——正如歐盟委員會(huì)主席容克（Juncker）先生所說(shuō)：沒(méi)有申根，歐元就沒(méi)有意義，這是一個(gè)嚴(yán)重的警告。

Banson Chong
It's a double edge sword. Germany - given its low reproductive rate needs immigration in significant numbers to solve its demographic problem.
The country's many Turks and other immigrants provide the backbone of the labor force for many jobs native Germans are not interested in providing for.
The sudden influx of the large number of Musli..., many of which have proven to be problematic in assimilation - as the French have discovered - is a huge dilemma for the Germans.
Careful what one wishes for ?

移民對(duì)德國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)是一把雙刃劍。鑒于德國(guó)較低的生育率，它需要大量移民來(lái)解決其人口結(jié)構(gòu)問(wèn)題。
德國(guó)的許多土耳其人和其他移民構(gòu)成了勞動(dòng)力的中堅(jiān)力量，從事許多本地德國(guó)人不愿意從事的工作。
然而，大量穆斯林的突然涌入，其中許多人在融入社會(huì)方面存在問(wèn)題——正如法國(guó)人所經(jīng)歷的——給德國(guó)人帶來(lái)了巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。
所以，我們?cè)谄诖裁磿r(shí)必須謹(jǐn)慎。

Radbert Grimmig
It depends on how well they are being integrated into German society.
This is not something all groups of immigrants will necessarily do of their own accord.
For example, an article in Sueddeutsche Zeitung the other day laid out how it could come to the New Year's Eve thing in Cologne and Hamburg.
Nicht alle Marokkaner suchen Schutz, einige aber doch

這取決于他們?nèi)谌氲聡?guó)社會(huì)的程度。
并非所有移民群體都會(huì)自然而然地融入。
例如，《南德日?qǐng)?bào)》最近一篇文章就分析了科隆和漢堡新年前夕事件的可能原因。
并非所有摩洛哥人都是為了尋求保護(hù)而來(lái)，但有些人確實(shí)是。

Apparently, there are plenty of Moroccans coming to Germany in search of money, not political asylum or refuge from persecution. Germany is against that kind of "economical refugee" and still tries to deny it is an immigrant nation. The pursuit of happiness is not viewed as a valid reason to immigrate here.
This means the Moroccans know from the outset they won't have a big chance of staying but will be deported at the earliest opportunity. So they try to make the most of the limited time they have and acquire as much money as possible by any means, of course also crime.

顯然，許多來(lái)到德國(guó)的摩洛哥人是為了尋找財(cái)富，而不是政治庇護(hù)或逃離迫害。德國(guó)反對(duì)這種“經(jīng)濟(jì)難民”，并且一直試圖否認(rèn)自己是一個(gè)移民國(guó)家。在這里，對(duì)幸福的追求不被視為移民到這里的正當(dāng)理由。
這意味著摩洛哥人從一開(kāi)始就知道他們留下來(lái)的機(jī)會(huì)不大，遲早會(huì)被遣返。因此，他們?cè)噲D在有限的時(shí)間內(nèi)盡可能多地賺錢(qián)，不擇手段，包括犯罪。

Police has been aware of growing problems, ghettoisation, organised crime among immigrants in other hotspots like Duisburg Marxloh for eight years and longer, also with extended Lebanese families brazenly defying the authorities.
But police is underfunded and understaffed and politicians rather commit to more prestigious and glamorous projects, so they just let it run its course.

警方已經(jīng)注意到，在杜伊斯堡馬克思洛等其他熱點(diǎn)地區(qū)，移民中的日益嚴(yán)重的問(wèn)題、貧民窟化、有組織犯罪，以及一些黎巴嫩大家庭公然違抗當(dāng)局，這種情況已經(jīng)持續(xù)了八年甚至更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。
但警方資金不足、人手不足，政治家們更傾向于投入到更受關(guān)注和更具吸引力的項(xiàng)目中，所以他們只是任由事態(tài)發(fā)展。

Also, now they can sharpen their profile by playing tough and nobody asks them where they've been the past eight years.
It's easy to blame poor people and immigrants.

此外，現(xiàn)在他們可以通過(guò)采取強(qiáng)硬立場(chǎng)來(lái)提升自己的形象，而沒(méi)有人會(huì)問(wèn)他們過(guò)去八年在干什么。
責(zé)怪窮人和移民總是很容易的。

Justin Oconnell
Germany is in danger of becoming isolated
And it is Chancellor Merkel to be thankful for that. German MEP from the CSU Albert Dess has again launched a stinging attack on Angela Merkel for her immigration policies. And such Polish political party as Law and Justice led by Jaros?aw Kaczyński can play a significant role in forming a covert anti-German coalition.

德國(guó)正面臨孤立的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，而這一切都要?dú)w咎于默克爾總理。來(lái)自基社盟的德國(guó)歐洲議會(huì)議員阿爾伯特·德賽再次對(duì)默克爾的移民政策發(fā)起了尖銳的批評(píng)。與此同時(shí)，由雅羅斯瓦夫·卡欽斯基領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的波蘭法律與公正黨等政治勢(shì)力，可能在暗中形成反德聯(lián)盟中扮演關(guān)鍵角色。

The locomotive that was dragging a lot of rail wagons for years is now derailed. Or, rather, someone derailed it. This 'someone' is well known as Angela Merkel. The failure of her policy is evident, and there is no sense to list all her faults here. The situation has even reached a point where Merkel is subjected to severe criticism of not only her political opponents, but also her party fellows and coalition partners.

曾經(jīng)拉動(dòng)眾多車(chē)廂的火車(chē)頭如今已經(jīng)脫軌，或者說(shuō)，有人故意讓它脫軌。這個(gè)“有人”就是眾所周知的安格拉·默克爾。她的政策失敗已經(jīng)顯而易見(jiàn)，沒(méi)有必要在這里一一列舉她的錯(cuò)誤。情況甚至已經(jīng)嚴(yán)重到默克爾不僅受到政治對(duì)手的嚴(yán)厲批評(píng)，連黨內(nèi)同僚和聯(lián)盟伙伴也開(kāi)始對(duì)她提出批評(píng)。

In his interview to Mittelbayerische Zeitung, the German CDU/CSU MEP Albert Dess squarely tells us that if Merkel doesn't face her nationals and stop her open-door policy, that is to say, close the country's borders, Germany's leadership in Europe will come to an end, and Merkel will unlikely become Chancellor for the fourth time in a row.

在接受《米德?tīng)柊头ダ麃唸?bào)》采訪(fǎng)時(shí)，德國(guó)基民盟/基社盟的歐洲議會(huì)議員阿爾伯特·德賽明確指出，如果默克爾不正視國(guó)內(nèi)民眾的訴求，不停止她的開(kāi)放邊境政策，即不關(guān)閉國(guó)家的邊界，德國(guó)在歐洲的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位將會(huì)終結(jié)，默克爾也不太可能連續(xù)第四次成為總理。

Ewart Wikkse
About migrants, integration and... sterilization
The refugee crisis keeps staying a critical issue with many Europeans. The article on the Soros resource page gives meat for more thoughts over the effectiveness of the integration projects that are being upgraded at the expense of the EU citizens.
The Paris suburbs are habitually set on fire due to migrants prone to go batty at any suitable pretext. Many Swedes are feeling their own city is just occupied. And in Germany the migrant standards are getting tougher with each passing year. This story with the "blunt refugees" fearful of the forceful sterilization may look ridiculous. But it resembles a provocation rather and this provocation we owe to German authorities, for that new integration course rejected so ardently by refugees was introduced exactly by them. The German language is delivered to poor migrants in such a way that they see the lessons on their behavior in the German society as sort of religious insult and threat to their reproductive performance. Now, fancy the threat is real........ Then it makes things much worse, the European Court of Human Rights in the air. It's no wonder that human rights advocates have already got interested. Strangely enough, the article has been dexed from the page.

關(guān)于移民、融入以及絕育問(wèn)題
難民危機(jī)持續(xù)成為許多歐洲人關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。索羅斯資源頁(yè)面上的文章為人們提供了更多思考，讓人們反思以歐盟公民利益為代價(jià)升級(jí)的融入項(xiàng)目的有效性。
巴黎郊區(qū)常常因?yàn)橐恍┮泼裨谌魏魏线m的借口下變得暴躁并引發(fā)火災(zāi)。許多瑞典人感到自己的城市仿佛被占領(lǐng)了。而在德國(guó)，對(duì)移民的要求每年都在變得更加嚴(yán)格。關(guān)于“坦率的難民”擔(dān)心被強(qiáng)制絕育的故事可能看起來(lái)荒誕不經(jīng)。但這更像是一種挑釁，這種挑釁我們應(yīng)該歸咎于德國(guó)當(dāng)局，因?yàn)檎撬麄兺瞥隽吮浑y民如此強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)的新融入課程。德語(yǔ)課程以一種方式呈現(xiàn)給貧困移民，讓他們感覺(jué)自己在德國(guó)社會(huì)中的行為規(guī)范課程是對(duì)他們的宗教信仰的侮辱，以及對(duì)他們生育能力的威脅?，F(xiàn)在，如果這種威脅變成現(xiàn)實(shí)……情況將變得更糟，歐洲人權(quán)法院也在關(guān)注這一問(wèn)題。難怪人權(quán)活動(dòng)家已經(jīng)對(duì)此表示了興趣。奇怪的是，這篇文章已經(jīng)從頁(yè)面上被刪除了。