Ray Dalio argued China will continue to have the leg up on the U.S. in AI chip manufacturing for the foreseeable future. “We're not going to have competitive advantages in those things,” the billionaire told Tucker Carlson last month. However, the U.S. will likely hold the edge in the AI development race in innovation and research, Dalio said.

瑞-達(dá)利歐認(rèn)為，在可預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái)，中國(guó)將繼續(xù)在人工智能芯片制造方面領(lǐng)先于美國(guó)?！拔覀儾粫?huì)在這些方面擁有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)，”這位億萬(wàn)富翁上個(gè)月對(duì)塔克-卡爾森說(shuō)。不過(guò)，達(dá)利歐表示，美國(guó)可能會(huì)在創(chuàng)新和研究方面占據(jù)人工智能發(fā)展競(jìng)賽的優(yōu)勢(shì)。

The U.S. may have the brains in leading AI chip development globally, but China will continue to have the brawn to manufacture applications for those chips, and that won’t change anytime soon, billionaire investor Ray Dalio says.

億萬(wàn)富翁投資人瑞-達(dá)利歐說(shuō)，美國(guó)可能擁有引領(lǐng)全球人工智能芯片開(kāi)發(fā)的大腦，但中國(guó)將繼續(xù)擁有制造這些芯片應(yīng)用的體力，而且這種情況不會(huì)很快改變。

China has the edge over the U.S. in mass-producing semiconductor chips and generating ways to apply AI, even though U.S. chips are slightly more effective, the Bridgewater Associates founder explained on an episode of the Tucker Carlson show last month.

布里奇沃特聯(lián)合公司創(chuàng)始人上個(gè)月在塔克-卡爾森的一檔節(jié)目中解釋說(shuō)，中國(guó)在大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)半導(dǎo)體芯片和創(chuàng)造應(yīng)用人工智能的方法方面比美國(guó)更有優(yōu)勢(shì)，盡管美國(guó)的芯片效率更高一些。

“We design chips, but we can't produce chips effectively. By and large, we can't produce things—any manufactured goods—as cost effectively,” Dalio said.

達(dá)利歐說(shuō)：“我們?cè)O(shè)計(jì)芯片，但我們無(wú)法有效地生產(chǎn)芯片。總體而言，我們無(wú)法生產(chǎn)成本效益高的東西--任何制成品都是這樣?！?/b>

Instead, the U.S. advantage in AI chip development rests in its continued investment in higher education and research, which has attracted a global workforce, he argued.

他認(rèn)為，美國(guó)在人工智能芯片開(kāi)發(fā)方面的優(yōu)勢(shì)在于對(duì)高等教育和研究的持續(xù)投資，這吸引了全球勞動(dòng)力。

“If we could work well together in that inventiveness—with rule of law working and all of that working—we have those things that are our competitive advantage,” Dalio added. “We do not have manufacturing, and we're not going to go back and be competitive in manufacturing with China in our lifetimes, I don’t believe.”

達(dá)利歐補(bǔ)充說(shuō)：“如果我們能在這種創(chuàng)造性方面合作得很好，法治和所有這些都能發(fā)揮作用，我們就擁有了這些作為我們競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)的東西。”“我們沒(méi)有制造業(yè)，在我們有生之年，我們也不能在制造業(yè)方面與中國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，我反正不相信?！?/b>

The AI development war between the U.S. and China has been heating up. In January, Chinese dark horse developer DeepSeek unveiled an open-source model claiming to be faster and far cheaper to produce than OpenAI’s o1 model. DeepSeek’s assertions—though some experts question them—are in spite of the Biden administration’s sweeping export controls designed to restrict access to key chip manufacturing equipment and curb domestic chip production.

中美之間的人工智能開(kāi)發(fā)戰(zhàn)已進(jìn)入白熱化階段。今年1月，中國(guó)黑馬開(kāi)發(fā)商DeepSeek發(fā)布了一個(gè)開(kāi)源模型，聲稱其生產(chǎn)速度比OpenAI的o1模型更快，成本也低得多。DeepSeek的說(shuō)法--盡管一些專家對(duì)此表示質(zhì)疑--是在拜登政府實(shí)施全面出口管制，旨在限制關(guān)鍵芯片制造設(shè)備的準(zhǔn)入并遏制國(guó)內(nèi)芯片生產(chǎn)的情況下作出的。

The U.S. has pushed to ramp up chip manufacturing at home. The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), which produces most of the world’s advanced semiconductor chips, is poised to announce a $100 billion investment in U.S. chip plants, according to multiple reports, part of President Donald Trump’s plan to push the U.S. ahead of AI competition.

據(jù)多方報(bào)道，生產(chǎn)世界上大多數(shù)先進(jìn)半導(dǎo)體芯片的臺(tái)積電公司準(zhǔn)備宣布向美國(guó)芯片工廠投資1000億美元，這是特朗普總統(tǒng)推動(dòng)美國(guó)在人工智能競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中領(lǐng)先的計(jì)劃的一部分。

Dalio called AI a “war no country can lose” in January, with winning "more important than profits," he told the All-In podcast.

達(dá)利歐今年1月在All-In播客中稱人工智能是一場(chǎng)“任何國(guó)家都不能輸?shù)膽?zhàn)爭(zhēng)”，獲勝“比利潤(rùn)更重要”。

Where China has the AI edge over the U.S.

與美國(guó)相比，中國(guó)在人工智能方面的優(yōu)勢(shì)在哪里？

While China’s chipmaking efforts tend to result in semiconductors with small deficiencies compared to U.S. technologies, those chips are still significantly less expensive compared to their American counterparts—and China will likely shift its focus to AI applications, Dalio said.

達(dá)利歐說(shuō)，雖然中國(guó)的芯片制造努力往往會(huì)導(dǎo)致半導(dǎo)體與美國(guó)技術(shù)相比存在較小的缺陷，但這些芯片的價(jià)格與美國(guó)同類產(chǎn)品相比仍然要低得多--而且中國(guó)很可能會(huì)將重點(diǎn)轉(zhuǎn)向人工智能應(yīng)用。

"The Chinese play is going to be chips, very inexpensive chips embedded into manufactured goods" like robotics, Dalio said in the January podcast.

達(dá)利歐在1月份的播客中說(shuō)：“中國(guó)的策略將是生產(chǎn)非常廉價(jià)的芯片，用以嵌入機(jī)器人等制成品中?！?/b>

DeepSeek’s optimistic outlook has boosted the confidence of Chinese investors, including on the potential of China-based robotics companies. Jacqueline Du, Goldman Sachs’ head of China industrial technology research, told Bloomberg Television last week that robotics was the “best embodiment of artificial intelligence technology” today and said China in particular was an “excellent playground” for investors to look for opportunities.

DeepSeek的樂(lè)觀前景增強(qiáng)了中國(guó)投資者的信心，包括對(duì)中國(guó)機(jī)器人公司潛力的信心。高盛集團(tuán)中國(guó)工業(yè)技術(shù)研究主管杰奎琳-杜上周告訴彭博電視臺(tái)，機(jī)器人技術(shù)是當(dāng)今“人工智能技術(shù)的最佳體現(xiàn)”，并稱中國(guó)尤其是投資者尋找機(jī)會(huì)的“絕佳場(chǎng)所”。

For now, the U.S. still has the edge over China in AI research infrastructure. According to the Stanford AI Index, which measures development and technological performance among other factors, the U.S. has invested $67.2 billion in AI research compared to China’s $7.8 billion, and has surpassed China in research publications pertaining to the technology.

目前，美國(guó)在人工智能研究的底層架構(gòu)基礎(chǔ)方面仍比中國(guó)有優(yōu)勢(shì)。根據(jù)斯坦福人工智能指數(shù)，美國(guó)在人工智能研究方面的投資為672億美元，而中國(guó)僅為78億美元，而且在與該技術(shù)相關(guān)的研究出版物方面也超過(guò)了中國(guó)。

“The gap is actually widening” between the two countries, Ray Perrault, a computer scientist and director of the steering committee behind the index, told the Associated Press. “The U.S. is investing a lot more, at least at the level of firm creation and firm funding.”

該指數(shù)背后的指導(dǎo)委員會(huì)主任、計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)家雷-佩羅告訴美聯(lián)社，兩國(guó)之間的“差距實(shí)際上正在擴(kuò)大。美國(guó)的投資要多得多，至少在企業(yè)創(chuàng)建和企業(yè)融資層面是這樣。”

The U.S.’s advantage in AI research brain power means China won’t be able to notch a decisive victory in the AI war, Dalio predicted. He painted a picture of the future of AI, in which there’s sustained efforts in guarding intellectual property surrounding the technology.

達(dá)利歐預(yù)測(cè)說(shuō)，美國(guó)在人工智能研究方面的人才優(yōu)勢(shì)意味著中國(guó)無(wú)法在人工智能戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中取得決定性的勝利。他描繪了一幅人工智能的未來(lái)圖景，在這幅圖景中，人們將持續(xù)努力保護(hù)圍繞人工智能技術(shù)的知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)。

“Different entities are going to be ahead in different ways,” Dalio told Carlson. “We're going to then be in this world in which there's competition…and then there's an attempt to be protectionist or whatever, or to fight those differences. And that's what the world looks like.”

“不同的實(shí)體將以不同的方式領(lǐng)先，”達(dá)利歐告訴卡爾森?！拔覀儗⑻幱谶@個(gè)存在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的世界……然后有人試圖采取保護(hù)主義或其他方式，或與這些差異作斗爭(zhēng)。這就是這個(gè)世界的現(xiàn)狀。”