百萬粉網(wǎng)紅科學(xué)家：中國將很快在科技領(lǐng)域領(lǐng)先世界
China Will Soon Lead World in Science and Tech
譯文簡介
今年 1 月，中國的人工智能公司DeepSeek發(fā)布了其DeepSeek-R1模型，該模型的表現(xiàn)與最好的美國AI模型相當(dāng)，但訓(xùn)練成本大大降低。從那時起，中國在量子計算和智能AI等領(lǐng)域也取得了類似令人印象深刻的進(jìn)展。
正文翻譯
In January, Chinese AI firm DeepSeek released its DeepSeek-R1 model, which performed as well as the best American AI models with significantly lower training costs. Since then, China has made similarly impressive progress in areas such as quantum computing and agentic AI. With the country’s semiconductor industry and research paper outputs reaching new heights, is China set up to become the world’s biggest scientific superpower?
?今年 1 月，中國的人工智能公司DeepSeek發(fā)布了其DeepSeek-R1模型，該模型的表現(xiàn)與最好的美國AI模型相當(dāng)，但訓(xùn)練成本大大降低。從那時起，中國在量子計算和智能AI等領(lǐng)域也取得了類似令人印象深刻的進(jìn)展。隨著中國半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)和研究論文產(chǎn)出達(dá)到新高度，中國是否準(zhǔn)備成為全球最大的科技超級大國？
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Who would have predicted that by graduating more engineers instead of traders, China would take the lead in technology?
誰能預(yù)料到，中國會通過培養(yǎng)更多的工程師而不是商人而占據(jù)科技領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)先地位？
Another joke I found the other day: The AI race is basically Chinese in US vs Chinese in China
我最近看到的另一個笑話：AI競賽基本上是美國的中國人 vs 中國的中國人。
I work in the US Patent Office and the number of patents coming out of China have grown exponentially over the past decade. The patent applications from China are also of good quality because I regularly use them to reject US patent applications because the Chinese patented it first.
我在美國專利局工作，過去十年里，從中國提交的專利數(shù)量呈指數(shù)增長。來自中國的專利申請質(zhì)量也很好，因為我經(jīng)常用它們來駁回美國的專利申請，因為中國先獲得了專利。
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I had a debate with a work colleague years ago, I argued eventually China will make everything we make cheaper and better, his argument was they can't because they don't speak english!!!
幾年前我曾與一位同事進(jìn)行過辯論，我認(rèn)為中國最終將使我們制造的所有東西都更便宜、更好，而他的觀點是他們做不到，因為他們不會說英語！??！
In my narrow field of aquaculture and doing peer reviews for Journals, I have watched China-sourced articles go from poorly written papers to top quality over the last 3 decades. Their research quality and detail is far exceeding the level of research coming from the USA and EU combined.
在我從事水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖這一狹窄領(lǐng)域以及為期刊做同行評審的過程中，過去 30 年來，我親眼目睹了來自中國的論文從拙劣的論文到高質(zhì)量的論文。他們的研究質(zhì)量和細(xì)節(jié)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了美國和歐盟研究的總和。
It all start in elementary schools/mid/high schools.
My twins graduated form a high school class of about about 600 students-- 3 went to engineering/science in college and that included my twins. I would wager the Chinese schools would be at least 30-50% going to STEM. In another generation, what is going to happen. Attitude towards hard science in US is going to be very negative for the country. We place exceedingly high value to people who can open and close their mouths rapidly , we value people who can throw a ball into a net , we value people who can wiggle and worm their way thru talking and lying but no one gives two hoots the kids who can can think about solve hard problems
這一切始于小學(xué)/初中/高中。
我的雙胞胎孩子剛從一個約600人的高年級畢業(yè)——其中有3個進(jìn)入了工程/科學(xué)專業(yè)，包含我的雙胞胎。我敢打賭，中國學(xué)校至少有30-50%的人會選擇STEM（科學(xué)、技術(shù)、工程、數(shù)學(xué)）專業(yè)。在下一代中，會發(fā)生什么呢？美國對硬科學(xué)的態(tài)度將對國家非常負(fù)面。我們過度重視那些能快速開口閉口的人，重視那些能把球扔進(jìn)籃筐的人，重視那些能通過說話和撒謊靈活變通的人，但沒有人關(guān)心那些能思考并解決難題的孩子。
Apple CEO recently: you do not go to China for cheap labour, you go for expertise. Example: highest grade experts in advanced metal tooling: a few hundred in the US, a football stadium full in China.
蘋果CEO最近說：你去中國不是為了廉價勞動力，而是為了專業(yè)技能。比如：美國有幾百個頂級的先進(jìn)金屬工具專家，而中國有一個足球場那么多。
All this is wonderful!!! The US has dedicated the past 40 years on financial 'innovation' which has drawn many engineering and physics tracked folks into the development of derivatives or figuring out ways to strip equity out of companies after PE LBOs. This focus has cannibalized the US economy and taken the wind out of the sails of technical and manufacturing innovation. The dreams of our children have been poached by these 'innovators' and replaced by basic survival and hopelessness. It's crazy to watch a country who had it all so willingly throw itself on a sword for the benefit of a very, very few
這一切真是太棒了?。?！ 美國過去40年致力于金融“創(chuàng)新”，這吸引了許多從事工程和物理專業(yè)的人進(jìn)入衍生品的開發(fā)，或者想方設(shè)法在私募股權(quán)收購后從公司中剝離股權(quán)。這種專注已經(jīng)吞噬了美國經(jīng)濟(jì)，削弱了技術(shù)和制造業(yè)的創(chuàng)新動力。我們孩子的夢想被這些“創(chuàng)新者”奪走，取而代之的是基本的生存和絕望?？粗粋€曾經(jīng)擁有一切的國家甘愿為了極少數(shù)人的利益自我犧牲，真是令人難以置信。
As an American, I'm not even surprised. Americans don't like STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics). Our system awards people who go into things like: Law, business, finance, and liberal arts. America has neglected STEM for so long even most of our so called "American" STEM graduates are foreigners.
作為一個美國人，我一點也不驚訝。美國人不喜歡STEM（科學(xué)、技術(shù)、工程、數(shù)學(xué)）。我們的系統(tǒng)獎勵那些選擇法律、商業(yè)、金融和人文學(xué)科的人。美國已經(jīng)忽視STEM太久了，甚至我們所謂的“美國”STEM畢業(yè)生大多數(shù)都是外國人。
I welcome science and technology that can be copied, freely studied, not behind a paywall or locked for decades under a BS patent, even if I have to study mandarin to fully understand it.
我歡迎可以被復(fù)制、自由研究的科學(xué)和技術(shù)，不是被墻住或被BS專利鎖住幾十年的技術(shù)，即使我需要學(xué)習(xí)普通話才能完全理解它。
They really are ridiculously good engineers. We employed a young Chinese guy. I asked him why he came to the UK. He said it was impossible to stand out in China. He was so good, I gave him my job. He was better at it than me. Works for both of us. He gets to be a manager. I get to do engineering.
他們真的是非常出色的工程師。我們雇了一位年輕的中國人。我問他為什么來到英國。他說在中國很難脫穎而出。他太優(yōu)秀了，我把工作交給了他。他比我更擅長。對我們雙方都有好處。他能當(dāng)上經(jīng)理，而我繼續(xù)做工程。
This is good news, not just for China. Humanity as a whole needs to accelerate scientific progress. It's good that China is stepping up when Western research get stuck.
這對中國來說是好消息，對全人類來說也是好消息。人類需要加速科學(xué)進(jìn)展。很高興看到中國在西方研究停滯時挺身而出。
Fairly amazing. Somewhat to my surprise my BYD Atto 3 recently informed me (in clear well spoken English) that an AI had taken up residence in the car's computer. Thankfully it is not an overly chatty bot, but I have noticed the standard of self driving has improved markedly and the car makes fewer mistakes responding to my spoken commands.
相當(dāng)令人驚訝。讓我有點意外的是，我的比亞迪 Atto 3 最近用清晰流利的英語通知我，一個人工智能已在汽車電腦中駐留。值得慶幸的是，它不是一個過于健談的機器人，但我注意到自動駕駛的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)已經(jīng)顯著提高，汽車在響應(yīng)我的語音命令時犯的錯誤更少了。
It’s good to know that science is alive and well in China.
As America becomes more isolated and diminished, abandoning trade, education and science…. As it fades into history….
Scientific progress will still be made.
知道中國的科學(xué)依然蓬勃發(fā)展真是太好了。隨著美國變得越來越孤立、衰退，放棄貿(mào)易、教育和科學(xué)……當(dāng)它逐漸淡出歷史，科學(xué)進(jìn)展仍然會繼續(xù)。
I find it worrisome that people are surprised when countries like China make progress. The countries are then vilified, ridiculed, or belittled in the media like they are not worthy of having progress. Also these media outings are always paired with negative things related to that country. Like in the case of China, most often people have to mention that they copy others, even though it has nothing to do with the subject at hand. The same is with progress in countries in the Middle East and Africa. Instead of celebrating the innovation these countries make, they are being criticized and downplayed. Shows that the world has a long way to go to eliminate racism
我覺得很令人擔(dān)憂的是，當(dāng)像中國這樣的國家取得進(jìn)展時，人們會感到驚訝。然后這些國家會在媒體中被妖魔化、嘲笑或輕視，好像它們不配取得進(jìn)展。而且，這些媒體報道總是伴隨著與該國相關(guān)的負(fù)面內(nèi)容。比如在中國的情況下，很多時候人們會提到它們抄襲別人，盡管這與話題本身無關(guān)。中東和非洲國家的進(jìn)展也一樣。人們沒有慶祝這些國家的創(chuàng)新，反而在批評和輕視它們。這表明世界在消除種族主義方面還有很長的路要走。
I am still waiting for someone to point out a single big breakthough in sciences that has come out of China in the past 500 yrs. Just one.
我仍然在等待有人指出過去500年中中國在科學(xué)領(lǐng)域取得的任何重大突破。就一個也行。
Progress is progress. Outside of ethics, I don't really care where good and accurate science comes from.
進(jìn)步就是進(jìn)步。除了倫理問題外，我并不在乎科學(xué)的來源。
In recent weeks, many scientific colleagues are considering to leave the United States or not to go to work in the United States. There is a lot of uncertainty in US right now amongs scientis about whether they will cancel their grants or if they will have new funding. It slightly reminds me of what happened in the 1930s in Germany, when many scientists found refuge in the United States, only now in the opposite direction. Among these scientists there are many Chinese who had never planned to return but who are now unsure whether to stay in the United States. The rest of the West should perhaps try to attract these minds. that or Europe should start having more student exchanges with China. I don't think about the United States because they have returned to the 19th century and are convinced that they don't need anyone else.
最近，許多科學(xué)同仁正在考慮是否離開美國，或者是否繼續(xù)在美國工作。美國目前在科學(xué)界充滿不確定性，許多人不確定是否會取消資助或是否會有新的資金。這讓我略微想起了上世紀(jì)30年代德國發(fā)生的事情，那時許多科學(xué)家找到了去美國的避難所，而現(xiàn)在正好相反。在這些科學(xué)家中有很多中國人，他們原本從未打算回國，但現(xiàn)在不確定是否應(yīng)該留在美國。西方其他國家或許應(yīng)該努力吸引這些人才，或者歐洲應(yīng)該開始與中國開展更多的學(xué)生交流。我不太考慮美國，因為他們已經(jīng)回到了19世紀(jì)，確信自己不需要別人。
I went to our graduate school commencement ceremony last year. Literally the entire engineering PhD class was Indian or Chinese.
我去年參加了我們研究生院的畢業(yè)典禮。整個工程學(xué)博士班幾乎都是印度人或中國人。
There are 5 stages of acceptance: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, and finally Acceptance. The West is now in the process of denial. We can clearly see the denial phase of Chinese supremacy at the governmental and at the societal level. This is still okay. It is the second phase that scares me the most; the Anger. Let's not hope that anger will not lead to wars.
接受的五個階段是：否認(rèn)、憤怒、討價還價、抑郁，最后是接受。西方現(xiàn)在正處于否認(rèn)階段。我們可以清楚地看到中國在政府和社會層面上處于否認(rèn)階段。這還算可以接受。最讓我擔(dān)心的是第二階段——憤怒。希望憤怒不會導(dǎo)致戰(zhàn)爭。
Listening to details about deepseek's models really hammers home that they're really a 1 billion people country with an avg iq of 105. Insane amounts of intellectual firepower.
聽到關(guān)于Deepseek模型的細(xì)節(jié)，人們才真正意識到，他們實際上是一個擁有 10 億人口的國家，平均智商為 105。擁有驚人的智力資源。
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In Australia we have educated hundreds of thousands (at least) of mainland Chinese Students. Our Universities are dependent on them to the point of locking out our own local students because of profit. Recently we have even more Indian Students. Many foreign students get easy immigration,, some go straoghr back, others go to the US, then go back to China. Some even recemtly went to Deepseek. Western Universities are now financially dependent. Add this now to China's own improved Universities, now mature companies and China has played the long game in tech so very well. We over many decades have created and continue to create our own competitors and rivals.
The hour is later than we think, its time to start learning Chinese, Buddy.
在澳大利亞，我們已經(jīng)教育了成千上萬（至少）的中國大陸學(xué)生。我們的大學(xué)在一定程度上依賴他們，甚至因為利潤問題而排斥本地學(xué)生。最近，我們又有了更多的印度學(xué)生。許多外國學(xué)生很容易獲得移民身份，一些人直接回國，另一些人去了美國，然后又回到中國。甚至最近有些人去了Deepseek。西方大學(xué)現(xiàn)在在經(jīng)濟(jì)上依賴外國學(xué)生。再加上中國自己日益進(jìn)步的大學(xué)，現(xiàn)在成熟的公司，中國在科技領(lǐng)域玩得非常長遠(yuǎn)。我們幾十年來已經(jīng)并且繼續(xù)培養(yǎng)了自己的競爭者和對手。現(xiàn)在的時間比我們想象的要晚，是時候開始學(xué)中文了，伙伴。
The only real hold back for Chinese research / academia field is their over reliance on journal publications for KPI which are traditionally controlled by the US. But recent political developments in the US is really making the Chinese rethink on how to manage academia more efficiently. If somehow the Chinese get their head around that a publication in Nature is not as important as making their research profitable, then there's nothing can stop them.
中國在科研/學(xué)術(shù)領(lǐng)域的唯一真正障礙是他們過于依賴期刊發(fā)表作為績效考核標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，而這些期刊傳統(tǒng)上由美國控制。但最近美國的政治發(fā)展確實讓中國開始重新思考如何更有效地管理學(xué)術(shù)界。如果中國能夠意識到，像《自然》這樣的期刊發(fā)表并不像讓他們的研究實現(xiàn)盈利那么重要，那么就沒有什么能夠阻止他們了。
In my research area, China is also cranking out papers like crazy. Many are of questionable quality, but even only the relevant ones are lots and lots.
在我的研究領(lǐng)域，中國也在瘋狂地發(fā)表論文，其中很多論文質(zhì)量值得懷疑，但即使只是相關(guān)的論文也很多。
One overlooked aspect is that American immigration system is built in a such way it takes years if not decades for a person born in China to secure permanent residency, even longer for Indians. At the same time the majority of US STEM graduate students come from India and China, and after they graduate they have very few options to remain in the US, and all of these options have very little security (because of an issue with permanent residency). So the US basically for a decade now takes a lot of Chinese, trains them and then forces them to move back. Guess what you get in the end
一個被忽視的方面是，美國的移民系統(tǒng)設(shè)計如此，出生在中國的人如果要獲得永久居留權(quán)，通常需要數(shù)年甚至數(shù)十年，而印度人更是如此。與此同時，大多數(shù)美國STEM（科學(xué)、技術(shù)、工程和數(shù)學(xué)）研究生都來自印度和中國，但他們畢業(yè)后幾乎沒有留在美國的機會，而且這些機會的安全性非常低（因為永久居留權(quán)的問題）。所以美國基本上在過去十年里，吸引了大量中國學(xué)生，培養(yǎng)了他們，然后又迫使他們回國。猜猜最后會發(fā)生什么？
It helps when your government is dominated by highly qualified doctors, engineers and scientists who gain their positions on merit rather than elected career politicians, conmen, overrated lawyers, bankers, warmongers and shady businessmen etc.
當(dāng)你的政府由高素質(zhì)的醫(yī)生、工程師和科學(xué)家主導(dǎo)時，這是有幫助的，這些人靠功績獲得職位，而不是通過選舉產(chǎn)生的職業(yè)政治家、騙子、被高估的律師、銀行家、戰(zhàn)爭販子和黑心商人等
I saw this coming good 25+ years ago when Chinese students flooded Australian universities. American ones too, I suppose. Undergraduate and postgraduate students alike. It was common, back then, for them to want, and also easy to do, to get a job and stay. And stay they did to learn industrial technologies and the knowhow. Then, the West built factories in China, so modern technology came to them and insentives reversed. PhD graduates, now with good English, went back and the rest Sabine has just described.
25年前，當(dāng)中國學(xué)生涌入澳大利亞的大學(xué)時，我就預(yù)見到了這一點。我猜美國的大學(xué)也是一樣。無論是本科生還是研究生，那時他們都希望，也很容易得到工作并留下來。而且他們確實留下來學(xué)習(xí)工業(yè)技術(shù)和專業(yè)知識。然后，西方在中國建立了工廠，現(xiàn)代技術(shù)傳到了他們那里，激勵機制發(fā)生了逆轉(zhuǎn)?，F(xiàn)在，擁有良好英語能力的博士畢業(yè)生回到了中國，剩下的事情就是Sabine所描述的那樣。
All the parts for my custom 3D printer for manufacturing come from China.
We are so hosed. Europe is even worse off.
我定制的3D打印機的所有零件都來自中國。我們完蛋了，歐洲的情況更糟。
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I have seen other China watchers saying that much Chinese progress is overhyped and more in line with state propaganda. I don't really know what is true tbh. Also their citizens can't have a twitter account, but their space stations can. I think that's worth pointing out.
我看到其他關(guān)注中國的人說，很多中國的進(jìn)展被夸大了，更符合國家宣傳。老實說，我不太清楚什么是真的。另外，他們的公民不能有Twitter賬戶，但他們的空間站可以。我覺得這一點值得指出。
America in the early 1970's "Hey, I have an idea! Why don't we outsource cheap labor from China! They cost a penny an hour, they don't complain, they always work overtime, and they have no work unxs! We'll make HUGE profits!" Their children now: "Dad! Why do I have to learn Chinese at school???"
20 世紀(jì) 70 年代初期的美國 “嘿，我有個主意！我們?yōu)槭裁床粡闹袊獍畠r勞動力！他們每小時只需一分錢，他們從不抱怨，他們總是加班，他們沒有工會！我們會賺大錢！” 他們的孩子現(xiàn)在：“爸爸！我為什么必須在學(xué)校學(xué)習(xí)中文？？？”
China is more like the federation in Star Trek, where as the US is more like the Ferengi, more interested in profits.
中國更像《星際迷航》中的聯(lián)邦，而美國更像是佛瑞吉人，對利潤更感興趣。
When every technological advancement is used to control the people who made it, don’t expect too much advancement.
當(dāng)每一項技術(shù)進(jìn)步都被用來控制創(chuàng)造它的人時，不要指望太多的進(jìn)展。
They are a lot of people well educated so it was matter of time surpassing everyone
他們有很多受過良好教育的人，所以超越所有人只是時間問題。
Having worked in technical fields in China, seen their huge science based schools, and done deals to acquire rights to technology there, I can say with confidence that their ability to create top flight technology and data is equaled only by their ability to create (being charitable) highly questionable results, studies, and data.
我曾在中國的技術(shù)領(lǐng)域工作，見過他們龐大的科學(xué)基礎(chǔ)學(xué)校，并且做過技術(shù)授權(quán)交易，我可以自信地說，他們在創(chuàng)造頂級技術(shù)和數(shù)據(jù)方面的能力僅與他們在創(chuàng)造（姑且稱之為）高度可疑的結(jié)果、研究和數(shù)據(jù)方面的能力相匹敵。
My university went from something like 20% Asian to 75% in about a decade. And a sizable portion of these students were not Asian Americans. My Chinese friend was a graduate student in engineering at the same school. It was hard for him to stay post graduation. So we basically educated our competitor and sent him on his merry way … contrary to his wishes because he much preferred to stay.
我的大學(xué)在大約十年間，從大約20%的亞洲學(xué)生增加到75%。其中相當(dāng)一部分學(xué)生并非亞裔美國人。我的一位中國朋友曾在同一所學(xué)校攻讀工程研究生。畢業(yè)后他很難留在這里。所以我們基本上教育了我們的競爭對手，并把他送走了……盡管他更愿意留下來。
The Chinese media does not do 'propaganda'. It is strictly factual, to the point of being boring.
中國媒體不做“宣傳”。它完全是事實性的，直截了當(dāng)，甚至有些無聊。
So the country with zero diversity, one political party, negligible immigration, no government time/money spent on gender and sexuality, no educational money wasted on equity/inclusion, no participation trophies, and a strong domestic manufacturing base is doing well and advancing the fastest? Who would have thought?
一個沒有多樣性、只有一個政黨、幾乎沒有移民、政府不在性別和性取向上花費時間和金錢、沒有教育上的平等/包容浪費、沒有參與獎、且有強大國內(nèi)制造業(yè)的國家正在做得很好，進(jìn)展最快？誰能想到呢？
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://mintwatchbillionaireclub.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
Why is it surprising that China will once again lead the world in science and technology?
China was once a leader in science and technology for thousands of years before the scientific revolution that occurred in Europe.
為什么令人驚訝的是中國將再次領(lǐng)先全球的科技和科學(xué)？
在歐洲發(fā)生科學(xué)革命之前，中國曾在科學(xué)技術(shù)領(lǐng)域領(lǐng)先世界數(shù)千年。
I think us, Europeans, should start spreading bets and collaborate with China. to me its clear the USA wants whats best for them and DO NOT want anyone else to do better, including us...
我認(rèn)為我們歐洲人應(yīng)該開始分散賭注，并與中國合作。對我來說，顯而易見的是，美國只關(guān)心自己的利益，并不希望其他國家做得更好，包括我們……
It seems like the more everybody relies on the machines these geniuses create, the dumber everyone else is getting. We weren't even able to use a calculator in math class, and now kids are allowed to carry phones with computers in them to class. I remember we used to get suspended from school if we were even caught with a pager. [Yes, we were still years away from everybody carrying a cell phone]. Are kids using these computers, which is like having the world library at the touch of a finger, to increase their knowledge, or are they using them to watch mindless TikTok videos all day?
似乎越來越多的人依賴這些天才們創(chuàng)造的機器，而其他人卻變得越來越愚蠢。我們甚至在數(shù)學(xué)課上不能使用計算器，現(xiàn)在孩子們可以帶著帶有電腦功能的手機去上課。我記得以前我們要是被發(fā)現(xiàn)帶著尋呼機，都會被停學(xué)。[是的，那時大家還沒普遍擁有手機]。孩子們在使用這些相當(dāng)于觸手可得的世界圖書館的計算機時，是在增加他們的知識，還是只是在一天到晚看無聊的TikTok視頻？
HMM isn't Chinese com...st tho, Com...ism bad tho its inefficient tho academia Com...ism tho,
嗯，中國不是GCZY國家嗎？GCZY不好，是低效的，學(xué)術(shù)上也是GCZY