為什么美國可能再次對加拿大木材征收關(guān)稅？
Why The U.S. Might Increase Duties On Canadian Lumber Again
譯文簡介
波動的木材價格讓建筑行業(yè)充滿不確定性。2025年4月，軟木木材的價格比去年上漲了23%。2025年第一季度，木材期貨也因為擔(dān)心更高的關(guān)稅以及北美各地的鋸木廠關(guān)閉而暴漲。
正文翻譯
Volatile lumber prices have been causing uncertainty for construction businesses. In April 2025, the price of softwood lumber was 23% higher than the previous year. Lumber futures in the first quarter of 2025 have also surged on fears of higher duties as well as sawmill closures across North America. That has impacted some of the U.S. biggest homebuilders like Lennar, D.R. Horton and Toll Brothers all, which suffered declines in their stocks during the spring. But while lumber escaped the latest round of tariffs they are on the radar of the Trump administration. Canada accounts for about 85% of all U.S. softwood lumber imports and represents almost a quarter of U.S. supply.
波動的木材價格讓建筑行業(yè)充滿不確定性。2025年4月，軟木木材的價格比去年上漲了23%。2025年第一季度，木材期貨也因為擔(dān)心更高的關(guān)稅以及北美各地的鋸木廠關(guān)閉而暴漲。這對美國一些最大的住宅建筑商，如Lennar、D.R. Horton和Toll Brothers，產(chǎn)生了影響，它們的股票在春季期間出現(xiàn)下跌。盡管木材沒有逃過最新一輪的關(guān)稅，但它依然是特朗普政府關(guān)注的對象。加拿大大約占美國軟木木材進口的85%，幾乎占美國供應(yīng)的四分之一。
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Canada needs to stop supplementing America for our premium lumber, high quality oil, and pure grade metals. Time to start charging American FREELOADERS the cost they deserve to pay! We need to open up trade to other nations that actually APPRECIATE what Canada has to offer!
加拿大需要停止為美國提供我們的優(yōu)質(zhì)木材、高質(zhì)量石油和純凈金屬。是時候開始讓美國的“寄生蟲”支付他們該付的費用了！我們需要向那些真正欣賞加拿大資源的國家開放貿(mào)易！
Well, instead of 30 homes you'll just have to make due with 2 homes and they'll cost a little more.
嗯，既然這樣，你們就得將原本能建30個房子的預(yù)算，只建2個房子，而且還會貴一點。
JUST BECAUSE the U.S. calls something a "subsidy" does NOT mean that it is. Canada's forests are primarily on public land and are better and more efficiently managed. Canada is actually a leader worldwide in forestry management in fact with the largest intact forest in the world to care for.... If the U.S. gets so much of its lumber from private land where they can charge any stumping fees they want and doesn't manage their forests as efficiently, that is NOT our problem and should not be blamed on us. Just work on improving rather than trying to vilify other countries. The U.S. has lost every time they've taken Canada to the WTO with these false charges but still they refuse to stop with the illegal tariffs.... (and this was before the current nonsense...)
僅僅因為美國稱某些東西是“補貼”，并不意味著它真的是。加拿大的森林主要位于公共土地上，而且管理得更好、更高效。事實上，加拿大在全球森林管理方面處于領(lǐng)先地位，我們有世界上最大的完整森林需要照料……如果美國從私人土地獲取大量木材，他們可以隨意收取伐木費，而且沒有像我們一樣高效地管理森林，這不是我們的責(zé)任，也不該歸咎于我們。美國應(yīng)該更多地致力于改善自身，而不是一味抹黑其他國家。美國在世貿(mào)組織中每次控告加拿大這些虛假指控時都輸了，但他們?nèi)匀痪芙^停止這些非法的關(guān)稅……（而且這還發(fā)生在當(dāng)前這種局面之前……）
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The report fails to mention that every time Canada took the US to adjudication(eiither under NAFTA or WTO), Canada won but the US continues to ignore these decisions.
報告沒有提到，每次加拿大將美國帶到裁決機構(gòu)（無論是根據(jù)NAFTA還是WTO），加拿大都贏了，但美國仍然忽視這些裁決。
We have dragged the U.S. to the WTO courts for many years because of their unfair treatment around our softwood lumber. Every single time we won our cases against the U.S.- but they have refused to pay the fines amassed against them. They believe they are untouchable and can make up their own rules that the world must obey. Lately Canada has felt less and less willing to play by their rules. We don’t manage our forests as they do, and so they say we are subsidizing our lumber unfairly. We don’t subsidize our lumber industry. Being located on Crown land does not mean it is subsidized. They refuse to listen and just keep slapping higher tariffs on our lumber. I desperately wish we could ship every exportable stick of lumber overseas and just stop supplying the U.S. permanently. They have no right to our softwood, let them live in tents.
我們多年來因為美國對我們的軟木木材的不公平待遇將其告上WTO法庭。每一次我們都贏了案件，但美國拒絕支付他們所積累的罰款。他們認(rèn)為自己是不可觸碰的，可以制定世界必須遵守的規(guī)則。最近加拿大越來越不愿意按他們的規(guī)則行事。我們不像他們那樣管理森林，所以他們說我們在不公平地補貼我們的木材產(chǎn)業(yè)。我們并沒有補貼我們的木材產(chǎn)業(yè)。位于王室土地并不意味著它被補貼。他們拒絕傾聽，只是一再加征更高的關(guān)稅。我真希望我們能把所有可出口的木材送到海外，永遠(yuǎn)停止向美國供應(yīng)。他們沒有權(quán)利使用我們的軟木木材，讓他們?nèi)プづ癜伞?/b>
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Trump said the USA doesn't need anything from Canada, so this shouldn't be an issue. And what Trump says is the truth! You can take that to the Crypto.
特朗普曾說，美國不需要加拿大的任何東西，所以這不應(yīng)該成為問題。而特朗普說的就是事實！你可以把這個帶到加密貨幣去。
Our family owns a small real estate investment an d development company in Virginia. We decided to convert four office buildings to apartments and build a five story addition using what’s called mass timber. Planning started in 2022, design and approvals ramped up in 2024, and we planned to break ground in 2025. Now that new lumber tariffs have been imposed, and interest rates remained high, we’re forced to postpone the project after investing hundreds of thousands of dollars in it. When Canadian lumber prices go up because of tariffs, American prices increase in lockstep. It is a myth that keeping out Canadian lumber will mean American producers will get the business because of price. Businesses raise prices to meet the market. No self-respecting American lumber CEO is going to hold down prices. We need to stop the madness and understand the way the economic world works.
我們家族在弗吉尼亞州擁有一家小型房地產(chǎn)投資和開發(fā)公司。我們決定將四棟辦公樓改建為公寓，并建設(shè)一個五層的擴展，使用所謂的大宗木材。規(guī)劃始于2022年，設(shè)計和批準(zhǔn)工作在2024年加速，原本計劃在2025年開工?，F(xiàn)在，由于新的木材關(guān)稅的實施，以及高利率的持續(xù)存在，我們被迫推遲這個項目，已經(jīng)在其中投資了數(shù)十萬美元。當(dāng)加拿大木材價格因為關(guān)稅上漲時，美國的價格也會同步上漲。認(rèn)為阻止加拿大木材進入市場會使美國生產(chǎn)商得到生意的說法是錯誤的。企業(yè)會提高價格以適應(yīng)市場。沒有一個有自尊的美國木材公司CEO會壓低價格。我們需要停止這種瘋狂，理解經(jīng)濟世界的運作方式。
Canadian here. The WTO has found our side of the argument legally valid. The US has ignored the WTO. Time to use the CPTPP and CETA to sell abroad. The world is smaller thanks to better shipping. Let's use it. Elbows up! ( I am from British Columbia. We have plenty of timber that the world needs.)
我是加拿大人。世界貿(mào)易組織已經(jīng)認(rèn)為我們的立場在法律上有效。美國無視世界貿(mào)易組織的裁決。是時候利用CPTPP和CETA開辟海外市場了。借助更好的航運技術(shù)，世界變得更小了。我們要好好利用這個機會！加油！（我來自不列顛哥倫比亞省。我們有大量世界需要的木材。）
Trump would tell this guy to eat the tariff, just like he did for Walmart.
特朗普會告訴這個人接受關(guān)稅，就像他對沃爾瑪說的那樣。
West coast Canadian . Getting jerked around by the US makes me believe we should send nothing and start fresh markets . Trump will make it all better , don't worry
我是西海岸的加拿大人。被美國擺布讓我相信我們應(yīng)該停止一切出口，開辟新市場。特朗普會讓這一切變得更好，別擔(dān)心。
Lumber from Canada a risk to national security? I know Trump uses the 'national security' excuse to offer legal cover for some ridiculous tariffs, but for lumber to build homes? That's gone far beyond nonsense into the realm of the absurd.
加拿大木材對國家安全構(gòu)成威脅？我知道特朗普用“國家安全”作為法律掩護，推出一些荒謬的關(guān)稅，但為了建房子的木材？這已經(jīng)超越了荒謬，進入了荒唐的領(lǐng)域。
Ad to the fact that Canadian lumber is of a much higher quality than the faster growing US lumber!
再加上加拿大木材質(zhì)量遠(yuǎn)高于美國那種生長更快的木材！
The construction industry just needs to give Trump a golden airplane and the tariffs will go away.
建筑行業(yè)只需要給特朗普一架金飛機，關(guān)稅就會消失。
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Don't worry about it. They don't need anything from Canada.
別擔(dān)心。他們根本不需要來自加拿大的任何東西。
Keep it All in Canada !! Oil, Gas, Wood, Power and all the critical minerals. Who is going to build all of your houses...You sent all the hard working immigrants home or threatened them with Jail terms. Good Luck USA !! very sad to see you go down this road, but you were warned and 70 million still voted for this outcome....
保持所有資源在加拿大！石油、天然氣、木材、電力以及所有關(guān)鍵礦產(chǎn)。誰來建造你們的房子……你們把辛勤工作的移民趕走了，或者威脅他們監(jiān)禁。祝你們好運，美國?。≌孀屓穗y過看到你們走上這條路，但你們被警告過，70百萬還是為這個結(jié)果投了票……
Good idea run up the costs of building materials so we can double the price of housing again over the next 4-5 years. But that is somehow not inflation.
好主意，推高建筑材料成本，這樣我們可以在未來4-5年內(nèi)再次把房價翻倍。但這竟然不是通貨膨脹。
Hopefully Carney's rebuild Canada agenda will reroute a lot of that lumber to stay in Canada. EU and Asia markets are huge as well. There will be a uncomfortable transition period but Canadas lumber industry will remain strong.
希望Carney的重建加拿大計劃能把大部分木材留在加拿大。歐盟和亞洲市場也很大。雖然過渡期會不舒服，但加拿大的木材行業(yè)依然會保持強大。
$460,000 for a house made of wood? Wasn't saving money the main reason to build wooden houses instead of real houses? Why do Americans even build wooden houses in areas that see wildfires almost every year?
460,000美金買一座木房子？不是因為省錢才建木房子，而不是建“真正的房子”嗎？為什么美國人還要在幾乎每年都會發(fā)生野火的地區(qū)建木房？
Don't worry, Canada will pay the tariffs...
別擔(dān)心，加拿大會支付關(guān)稅……
Trump said the US doesn't need anything we Canadians produce so just do without but stop blaming Canada for the mess you've created all by yourself
特朗普說美國不需要我們加拿大人生產(chǎn)的任何東西，那就不需要，但別怪加拿大搞砸了你們自己創(chuàng)造的局面。
Didn't Trump campaign on lowering inflation / prices?
特朗普不是在競選時承諾降低通貨膨脹/物價嗎？
Canada supplies 85% of U.S. softwood lumber imports—critical for stabilizing prices and ensuring a steady supply amid domestic sawmill closures and volatility. The consistent quality of Canad's lumber is one reason why it is so popular, as well as cost. Expanding trade with Canada is the most direct way to support U.S. builders and keep housing affordable.
加拿大提供美國85%的軟木進口——對于穩(wěn)定價格和確保穩(wěn)定供應(yīng)至關(guān)重要，尤其是在國內(nèi)鋸木廠關(guān)閉和市場波動的背景下。加拿大木材的一致質(zhì)量是其如此受歡迎的原因之一，成本也是如此。擴大與加拿大的貿(mào)易是支持美國建筑商并保持住房可負(fù)擔(dān)性最直接的方式。
Im a state forester here in germany in the most productive and most nature friendly forestry in the world. If i got a chance to manage the US forest service i guarantee you would see a 30% production increase without any worse environmental impact and im even claiming i can lessen the impact massively and produce more. Its because clearcut forestry does not increase production per acre like regular thinning with the CORRECT model does. We are so small compared to the US, yet we produce enough lumber to supply Germany, its neighbours great britain and export to the US. Its because we are using the oand we have effectively and because we made sure our forests are accesible by forest roads. Both things russia and the US are equally terrible at. INFRASTRUCTURE. That is what you guys are terrible at. I spent 1 year in the US lumber industry in 2019 and i was incredibly shocked how much ressources you waste. Its because you have so kuch of everything so you look at it differently.
我是德國的州林務(wù)員，負(fù)責(zé)全球最具生產(chǎn)力和最環(huán)保的林業(yè)之一。如果我有機會管理美國森林服務(wù)，我敢保證你們會看到30%的生產(chǎn)增長，而且對環(huán)境的影響不會更糟，甚至我還聲稱可以大幅減少影響并提高產(chǎn)量。因為清除式砍伐并沒有像正確模式下的定向修剪那樣提高每英畝的產(chǎn)量。我們國家雖然小，但我們生產(chǎn)的木材足夠供應(yīng)德國、鄰國和英國，還出口到美國。原因在于我們有效地利用了土地，并確保我們的森林可以通過林道進入。而俄羅斯和美國在這兩方面都非常糟糕——基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。你們在這一點上做得很差。我在2019年曾在美國木材行業(yè)待了一年，我對你們浪費資源的方式感到震驚。因為你們有太多的資源，所以從另一個角度看待這些問題。
The lumber industry has lobbied politicians endlessly to apply tariffs on Canadian lumber. This despite multiple international tribunals which have found in favor of Canada and found there was no dumping or unfair competition. After every negative tribunal, the American industry then starts the lobby all over again and tariffs are reapplied and years go by for yet another tribunal. The reason they want tariffs is not to level the playing field. It is to increase their profits. Canadian lumber becomes more expensive and the American industry does not cut more timber, but rather they just raise their own prices to match the new higher priced tariffed Canadian lumber. They already have raised prices using tariffs as an excuse even though they haven't even been applied yet.
木材行業(yè)不斷游說政治家對加拿大木材征收關(guān)稅。盡管多次國際仲裁庭已經(jīng)裁定加拿大沒有傾銷或不正當(dāng)競爭。每次仲裁結(jié)果不利后，美國行業(yè)就開始重新游說，再次征收關(guān)稅，幾年過去又要等下一次仲裁。它們希望征收關(guān)稅的原因并不是為了公平競爭，而是為了增加利潤。加拿大木材變得更加昂貴，而美國行業(yè)并不會多砍伐木材，而是僅僅提高自己的價格，以匹配加價后的加拿大木材。即便關(guān)稅還沒征收，他們已經(jīng)借此提高了價格。
The US doesn't have that much wood. When you hear a lobbyist say you should open your national parks to be harvested that should be a red flag...
美國并沒有那么多木材。當(dāng)你聽到一個游說者說你應(yīng)該開放國家公園進行采伐時，那應(yīng)該是一個警告信號…
No one talks about quality of lumber. Most Canadian Lumber is situated in colder weather 6 months of the year meaning it grows slower (less moisture in the wood) and is therefore stronger. I have seen US video footage where after a Tornado or Hurricane the frx of a building is broken around 5' up usually meaning weaker American wood was used.
沒有人談?wù)撃静牡馁|(zhì)量。大多數(shù)加拿大木材位于寒冷氣候中，六個月的生長季節(jié)較短，這意味著木材生長較慢（木材含水量較少），因此更強健。我曾看到美國的視頻，顯示在龍卷風(fēng)或颶風(fēng)之后，建筑物的框架通常會在約5英尺的高度斷裂，這通常意味著使用了較弱的美國木材。
Did that guy really say remove regulations? So build even crappier homes than now? They've already gone from plywood to particle board, what's next, prefab foam homes???
那個人真的說要去除監(jiān)管嗎？那么是建造比現(xiàn)在更差的房子嗎？他們已經(jīng)從膠合板變成了刨花板，接下來是什么，預(yù)制泡沫房屋？
What a waste of wood. No one needs a house that big. Save forests and land by building smaller homes.
真是浪費木材。沒有人需要那么大的房子。通過建造更小的房子來節(jié)省森林和土地。
One thing not mentioned is in the US most forests are privately owned so you have to negotiate with individual landowners to cut timber which can be very costly whereas here in Canada most forests are crown owned(government owned) so they set a standard stumpage rate for cut timber which is applied equally hence Americans whine because they say Canadian lumber is subsidized which it is not. Aside from one ruling Canada has won every legal battle with the US over tariffs since the 1980s.
有一點沒有提到的是，在美國，大多數(shù)森林是私有的，因此你必須與個別土地所有者協(xié)商砍伐木材，這可能非常昂貴；而在加拿大，大多數(shù)森林是由政府擁有的（皇家森林），所以政府設(shè)定了統(tǒng)一的采伐費用，這也是美國人抱怨加拿大木材是政府補貼的原因，實際上并非如此。除了一個裁決之外，自1980年代以來，加拿大在與美國關(guān)于關(guān)稅的每一次法律斗爭中都取得了勝利。
此外，美國的大部分木材由于氣候較溫暖而生長較快，因此木材的纖維密度較低，通常較弱；而加拿大木材由于氣候寒冷，生長較慢，產(chǎn)生的木材更強健結(jié)實，使建筑物更牢固。再加上，美國建筑商協(xié)會建議使用加拿大木材作為結(jié)構(gòu)材料，以提高穩(wěn)定性，盡管他們并沒有公開表態(tài)。
Fingers crossed that Canada ceases selling our lumber to the US. Less wood to the US means more untouched forests in Canada. In Canada, logging is a high paying profession. A six figure income is pretty much guaranteed. The best sawyers in the world come from BC.
希望加拿大停止向美國銷售我們的木材。減少對美國的木材出口意味著加拿大有更多未開發(fā)的森林。在加拿大，伐木是一項高薪職業(yè)。六位數(shù)的收入幾乎是可以保證的。世界上最好的木匠來自不列顛哥倫比亞省。
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The cost and availability of lumber is not what is holding back home building, excessive zoning regulations that only allow single family homes, or don't allow infill development are a major barrier.
限制住宅建設(shè)的不是木材成本和可用性，而是過度的分區(qū)規(guī)定，只允許單戶住宅，或者不允許填充開發(fā)，這些都是主要障礙。
High end homes are NOT WHAT WE NEED. We need small cheap starter homes.. and for the love of GOD can we hold ourselves accountable for our mistakes AND STOP BLAMING EVERYONE ELSE.. I.E CANADA!! And btw Canadians are also in a housing crisis. The irony right?! the housing crisis is global for everywhere but Helsinki
我們不需要高端住宅。我們需要的是小型廉價的首套房……拜托，能不能對我們自己的錯誤負(fù)責(zé)，并停止責(zé)怪別人……比如加拿大！！順便說一句，加拿大也面臨住房危機。真是諷刺，對吧？！住房危機是全球性的，除了赫爾辛基。
Look at the amount of lumber that goes into modern homes and contrast that with the homes of 30, 40 and 50 years ago. This shift in expectations is a big part of the lumber shortage.
看看現(xiàn)代住宅中使用的木材數(shù)量，再與30、40、50年前的房屋進行對比。這種期望的轉(zhuǎn)變是導(dǎo)致木材短缺的一個重要原因。
Raising the cost of materials is going to make houses go from unaffordable to a luxury. That is the goal.
提高材料成本將使房屋從“負(fù)擔(dān)不起”變成奢侈品。這就是目標(biāo)。
As an American- at this point we honestly do deserve the complete economic disaster that we voted for. In the long run, hopefully it'll bring some sanity to our decision making (not likely). The moron Trumpers will continue to praise all of his decisions, and a spineless Congress and Supreme Court won't help anything. We deserve this. We chose this. And for those who say "well I didn't vote for Trump"- 70% of the electorate had the opportunity to vote against Trump and either voted for him or didn't vote at all because Harris wasn't "good enough".
作為一個美國人——到現(xiàn)在為止，我們真的配得上我們選出的完全經(jīng)濟災(zāi)難。希望從長遠(yuǎn)來看，這能讓我們的決策更理智（不太可能）。那些愚蠢的特朗普支持者將繼續(xù)贊揚他做出的所有決定，而軟弱無力的國會和最高法院也無能為力。我們配得上這一切。我們選擇了這一切。對于那些說“我沒投特朗普”的人——70%的選民有機會反對特朗普投票，要么選他，要么因為哈里斯“不夠好”而選擇不投票。
Stop stepping on Canada’s toes, we are an ally, we have lots to offer the United States. One of those this is lumber, we have magnitudes more in lumber resources. You can have a stable lumber supply as long as trump stop poking us with a stick and you keep the tariffs down.
停止踩加拿大，我們是盟友，我們有很多可以提供給美國的東西。其中之一就是木材，我們有更多的木材資源。只要特朗普不再挑釁我們，你們保持低關(guān)稅，就可以有穩(wěn)定的木材供應(yīng)。
Getting rid of regulations without considering both the positive and negative outcomes is irresponsible. Most regulations were crafted to curb some kind of damage or abuse. Don’t be arbitrary, be intentional.
在沒有考慮正面和負(fù)面結(jié)果的情況下去除法規(guī)是不負(fù)責(zé)任的。大多數(shù)法規(guī)都是為了防止某種損害或濫用而制定的。不要做出隨意的決定，要有意圖地行動。
Canada will be using a lot more of our lumber at home in the near future. Japan and the EU love our lumber, too. Canada has good wood! Enjoy your higher house prices, thanks to the trump tax.
加拿大在不久的將來會更多地使用我們的木材。日本和歐盟也喜歡我們的木材。加拿大有優(yōu)質(zhì)的木材！感謝特朗普稅收，讓你們的房價更高。
We are going to need our own lumber in Canada.
我們在加拿大將需要更多的木材。
No matter, hopefully Carney can ramp up affordable homes to be built throughout Canada. The prefab industry could use the boost and our lumber industry can be a great partner.
無論如何，希望Carney能夠推動加拿大建造更多可負(fù)擔(dān)得起的住房。預(yù)制房產(chǎn)業(yè)可以得到推動，我們的木材產(chǎn)業(yè)可以成為一個偉大的合作伙伴。
All over the USA we have áreas that were cut and cleared but not replanted. I guess we will just plant trees and wait 20 years.
美國各地都有已經(jīng)砍伐并清理但未重新種植的地區(qū)。我猜我們只好種樹并等待20年。
The construction industry in the US is a scam designed to make the house buyer constantly having to pay out.
The roofs last at best 20 years before needing to be replaced. The house itself has a life expectancy of about 60 years. Then there are the constant running repairs on the paper-thin walls as well as the main structure.
Meanwhile, in most countries, they use brick for the construction and slate or clay tiles for the roof, all of which last hundreds of years with little to no maintenance.
美國的建筑行業(yè)是一個騙局，旨在讓購房者不斷支付費用。屋頂最多能用20年，之后就需要更換。房子的使用壽命大約為60年。然后是紙薄墻壁和主要結(jié)構(gòu)的不斷維修。與此同時，在大多數(shù)國家，他們使用磚塊建造房屋，屋頂則使用石板或粘土瓦，這些材料幾乎無需維護，能持續(xù)數(shù)百年。
Honestly, the shrinking workforce is kind of terrifying—but also a real wake-up call. It really drives home how tightly connected the economy is to our personal financial health. If fewer people are working while more are retiring, who's funding Social Security? Who's stepping into those jobs? It all affects our future financial security.
說實話，勞動力的減少有點可怕——但也是一個真正的警鐘。這讓我們深刻意識到經(jīng)濟與個人財務(wù)健康是如此緊密相連。如果工作的人少了，而退休的人多了，誰來為社會保障提供資金？誰來接替這些工作？這一切都關(guān)系到我們未來的財務(wù)安全。
Trump stated the U.S. doesn’t need our lumber, the U.S. has a lot of lumber. So Trump use your own lumber.
特朗普曾表示美國不需要我們的木材，美國有很多木材。那么特朗普，用你們自己的木材吧。
Tarrifs on Canadian lumber must go up to ensure the prices of new homes in the US must go up.
加拿大木材的關(guān)稅必須上調(diào)，以確保美國新房價格上漲。