QA回答：如果中國(guó)開始每年建造2艘新航母，美國(guó)會(huì)作何反應(yīng)？

Jacob Baumgardner Surprise, confusion, and a serious inquiry into who in intelligence provided such inaccurate information.

（美方）會(huì)感到震驚、困惑，并嚴(yán)查情報(bào)部門究竟是誰(shuí)提供了如此失實(shí)的信息。

Type 003 launch

003 型航母下水

China is a damn powerhouse when it comes to ship production. They have more than tripled their commercial shipping capacity since 2005 and by increasing their civilian dockyard has allowed China to expand their military shipbuilding massively, now the largest producer in yearly military and civilian ship production by tonnage.

在船舶建造方面，中國(guó)簡(jiǎn)直是一股強(qiáng)大力量。自 2005 年以來(lái)，中國(guó)的商船運(yùn)力已增長(zhǎng)了三倍多，通過擴(kuò)建民用船塢，中國(guó)大規(guī)模提升了軍事造船能力，如今按年噸位計(jì)，中國(guó)已成為全球軍用和民用船舶年產(chǎn)量最大的國(guó)家。

The massive Shanghai dockyards

龐大的上海造船廠

Two aircraft carriers a year though, that’s just unrealistic. An American carrier is north of $10 billion and takes on average 6 years to build, and they've been doing it for nearly a century. China has a lot of experience to gain over the next 10 years. China managed to produce their first Type 003 in 7 years (edit: I read the source incorrectly, they plan to have the first Type 004 ready in 7 years), which is mightily impressive for a first try. If they can keep this pace up they could have 6 catobar carriers by the mid 2030’s, and will seriously threaten US hegemony in the Indo?Pacific.

不過一年兩艘航母，這實(shí)在不現(xiàn)實(shí)。一艘美國(guó)航母造價(jià)超過 100億美元，平均需要 6年時(shí)間建造，而且美國(guó)已這樣干了近一個(gè)世紀(jì)。未來(lái) 10年里，中國(guó)還有很多經(jīng)驗(yàn)要積累。中國(guó)用 7年時(shí)間造出了首艦 003 型（更正：我看錯(cuò)了來(lái)源，其實(shí)計(jì)劃在 7年內(nèi)首艘 004 型航母就緒），這對(duì)首次嘗試而言極為令人印象深刻。如果能保持這個(gè)速度，到 2030 年中期，他們可能擁有 6 艘彈射起飛航母，這將嚴(yán)重威脅印太地區(qū)的美國(guó)霸權(quán)。

Time will tell, though, and I personally will be keeping a close eye on this future.

時(shí)間會(huì)證明一切，我個(gè)人將密切關(guān)注這一進(jìn)程。

Bill Chen US response?

美國(guó)的回應(yīng)？

Nothing much.

幾乎沒什么。

The defense budget already stands at 800 billion, while the budget deficit grows ever higher into the trillions.

國(guó)防預(yù)算已達(dá) 8千億美元，而預(yù)算赤字卻不斷攀升至數(shù)萬(wàn)億美元級(jí)別。

American shipbuilding for commercial ocean-crossing vessels is practically dead, while there is only one shipyard capable of building carriers in Newport News.

美國(guó)的遠(yuǎn)洋商用船舶建造業(yè)幾乎已經(jīng)消亡，而能夠建造航母的造船廠也僅剩下紐波特紐斯的一家。

Despite all the bluster about the Ford class, the lead ship is still not ready for deployment 5 years after commission, 9 years post-launch and 13 years after being laid down. [The Chinese went from 0 carriers to 2 deployed ski-jump and one launched Emals catobar in those same 13years.]

盡管福特級(jí)吹得天花亂墜，首艦服役 5 年后仍未能部署，距下水已 9 年，距開工已 13 年?！就?13 年間，中國(guó)從零航母發(fā)展到部署兩艘滑躍式航母并下水一艘電磁彈射航母?！?br />
The current timeline calls for a carrier every 4 years, to replace the 50+ year old Nimitz class. The timeline looks optimistic, given the problems with the lead ship.

目前的計(jì)劃是每 4 年建造一艘航母，以替換服役 50 多年的尼米茲級(jí)?？紤]到首艦的問題，這一進(jìn)度看上去頗具樂觀色彩。

The problem being no way to speed up the process, because additional shipyards do not exist.

問題在于無(wú)法加快建造進(jìn)程，因?yàn)楦静淮嬖陬~外的造船廠。

The Chinese meanwhile, have ~40 shipyards with facilities large enough to build carriers, because Chinese shipyards are responsible for half the global merchant marine tonnage produced annually. One shipyard delivered a 24,000 teu container ship recently, the world's largest.

與此同時(shí)，中國(guó)擁有約 40 座足以建造航母的造船廠，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)造船廠每年生產(chǎn)的遠(yuǎn)洋商船噸位占全球一半。近日，一家造船廠交付了全球最大、載箱量 2.4萬(wàn)標(biāo)箱的集裝箱船。

At some point, the USN will give up the competition, and withdraw from provocation because they cannot keep up with the operational tempo set by the Chinese when they have catobar carrier battle groups of their own.

在某個(gè)時(shí)刻，美國(guó)海軍將放棄這場(chǎng)競(jìng)賽，并停止挑釁，因?yàn)樗麄儫o(wú)法跟上中國(guó)若擁有自己電磁彈射航母戰(zhàn)斗群所設(shè)定的作戰(zhàn)節(jié)奏。

That, or start a shooting war before it comes to pass.

否則，就只能在此之前發(fā)動(dòng)一場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。

Ross Hall US response?

美國(guó)的回應(yīng)？

Journalists would love it. Years of articles and hand-wringing about the rise of the Chinese (naval) dragon.

新聞?dòng)浾邩烽_花，可以寫上好幾年的文章，為中國(guó)（海軍）巨龍的崛起哀嘆不止。

The Pentagon would love it — great reason to ramp up weapons purchases.

五角大樓也樂開了——這可是大肆采購(gòu)武器的好借口。

Lots of federal spending for your local district to buy all those weapons …

聯(lián)邦大筆開支讓各地選區(qū)都能買到這些武器……

US Navy official position: “Freedom of the Seas” … “naval superiority” … “grave danger”.

美國(guó)海軍官方立場(chǎng)：“航行自由”……“海上霸權(quán)”……“嚴(yán)重危機(jī)”。

US Navy (unofficial position).

美國(guó)海軍（非官方立場(chǎng)）。

Let’s get real. Two carriers a year is a good start for bankrupting the country. Furthermore, it will take 20–30 years just to become proficient enough to fly on and off the carrier, then develop airwing tactics, then become proficient at a host of other things such as at-sea replenishment, battle group escorts and supply ships, battle group maneuvers and strategy, etc.

實(shí)話實(shí)說(shuō)，一年兩艘航母倒是可讓國(guó)家破產(chǎn)。更何況，僅僅熟練掌握航母上的起降操作就得 20–30 年，然后還要發(fā)展艦載航空兵戰(zhàn)術(shù)，再學(xué)習(xí)一系列其他技能，比如海上補(bǔ)給、戰(zhàn)斗群護(hù)航與補(bǔ)給艦、戰(zhàn)斗群機(jī)動(dòng)和戰(zhàn)略等。

Then, after you get good at flying your airplanes around, what are you going to do with them? Drop a ton of bombs on the US West Coast? That’s like getting stung by a bee — it pisses you off. No … next step is to develop a credible amphibious force. Good luck with that. You’ll need a whole fleet of amphibious ships (and the whole logistics tail that goes with it), and a whole bunch of badasses that have developed amphibious tactics over decades (plus several major wars).

接著等你飛得爐火純青，你打算拿它們做什么？轟炸美國(guó)西海岸？那就像被蜜蜂蟄一下——只會(huì)激怒對(duì)方。不……下一步得發(fā)展一支可信的兩棲作戰(zhàn)力量。祝你好運(yùn)。你需要整整一支兩棲船艦艦隊(duì)（及其龐大后勤鏈），還得培養(yǎng)一批幾十年磨煉出來(lái)的兩棲戰(zhàn)術(shù)精英（再加上幾場(chǎng)大戰(zhàn)的實(shí)戰(zhàn)經(jīng)驗(yàn)）。

But it doesn’t stop there. The list goes on. You will need overseas bases; airlift and sealift capabilities; long-range bombers, and the ability to forward deploy air and surface forces.

可這還不夠。名單還在繼續(xù)：你需要海外基地；空運(yùn)與海運(yùn)能力；遠(yuǎn)程轟炸機(jī)；以及前沿部署的空中與水面作戰(zhàn)力量。

Why? Because you have decided to build aircraft carriers. And their purpose is to project power. At long (oceanic) distances. Therefore, you have changed your national strategy to power projection, rather than just reinforcement of your sphere of influence (can you say “South China Sea”?).

為什么？ 因?yàn)槟阋呀?jīng)決定建航母。而航母的目的就是進(jìn)行遠(yuǎn)程（海洋）投送和投射力量。因此，你的國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略已從“鞏固勢(shì)力范圍”轉(zhuǎn)向“遠(yuǎn)程力量投射”（能想到“南?！眴幔浚?。

So, after getting up from the floor with a bellyache, what does the US Navy do? Build a number of additional attack submarines, and prepare for the next Marianas Turkey Shoot.

于是，當(dāng)美國(guó)海軍從震驚中緩過神來(lái)，會(huì)做什么？建造更多攻擊型潛艇，為下一次“馬里亞納大屠殺”（空戰(zhàn)演習(xí)）做準(zhǔn)備。

Rahul Jayantilal Patel In public the DoD would demand more money to build more to keep up with China. In private they would be laughing their asses off. The reason for this is because the Chinese doesn't have experience in building (remember their current one is a non-nuclear and is revamped carrier bought from Russia which then was retrofitted) carriers. The nuclear propulsion technology the US uses is HIGHLY classified. The US has been designing and building aircraft carriers and other ships since World War 2 and they still have issues. Even if China starts laying down the keels for aircraft carriers they still have a multitude of issues to overcome to make a carrier comparable to the US. During that time the US would continue to enhance the technology on their own carriers. China had to reverse engineer the technology for a steam catapult, while the new Ford class has electro magnetic catapults. Not the mention they would have redesign their aircraft to be launched and land on a carrier.

私下里，國(guó)防部會(huì)笑得前仰后合；公開場(chǎng)合，他們得要求更多預(yù)算，以追趕中國(guó)。原因在于，中國(guó)并無(wú)建造航母的經(jīng)驗(yàn)（別忘了，他們現(xiàn)有的航母是買自俄羅斯的非核動(dòng)力航母，后經(jīng)改造）；而美國(guó)使用的核動(dòng)力技術(shù)高度機(jī)密。自二戰(zhàn)起，美國(guó)就開始設(shè)計(jì)和建造航母及各種艦船，現(xiàn)在仍然面臨各種問題。即便中國(guó)開始敲定航母龍骨，也要克服諸多難題，才能造出與美軍相當(dāng)?shù)暮侥?。期間，美國(guó)會(huì)不斷增強(qiáng)自身航母的技術(shù)。中國(guó)不得不逆向工程出蒸汽彈射器技術(shù)，而福特級(jí)則采用電磁彈射。更別提，他們還得重新設(shè)計(jì)艦載機(jī)，以適應(yīng)航母起降。

Secondly China will have to go through the growing pains of how man and logistics of how supply a carrier at sea. Then the maintenance of a carrier is a big job. The US has 10 active carries and one going through testing, about 1/3 is in maintenance at anytime. Maintenance takes a whole different set of skills than building a carrier.

其次，中國(guó)還得經(jīng)歷如何在海上為航母提供人力與后勤保障的陣痛。航母的維護(hù)更是大工程。美國(guó)現(xiàn)役航母 10 艘，另有 1 艘正在測(cè)試，隨時(shí)約有三分之一處于維護(hù)狀態(tài)。維護(hù)所需技能與造船截然不同。

Logistics is another huge piece of the puzzle. Sure you may have a nuclear propulsion system that does not need to be refueled. You still have supply the people on the ship. Which in my opinion is the hardest part about running a military.

后勤是另一塊大難題。當(dāng)然，核動(dòng)力不需加燃料，但船上人員物資仍需持續(xù)補(bǔ)給——在我看來(lái)，這是維持軍事運(yùn)行最難的部分。

A carrier is not deployed alone, the carrier is the main piece of a strike group. So China would have build the ships that are part of the group. Which would take time also, then training the sailors of the different ships to work as a group will also time and effort. Not the mention the training the pilots to launch and land on a carrier properly is a lot of work.

航母絕非孤立部署，航母只是戰(zhàn)斗群的核心。因此，中國(guó)還得建造群內(nèi)配套艦艇，這也需要時(shí)間，然后再訓(xùn)練不同艦船的水手協(xié)同作戰(zhàn)。此外，還得花大量精力訓(xùn)練艦載機(jī)飛行員掌握起降技術(shù)。

It am not saying China can't do it, it will take some time for China to become as proficient as the US.

我并不是說(shuō)中國(guó)做不到，只是要花些時(shí)間才能達(dá)到美國(guó)的那種熟練程度。

Nolan Perreira All the people that answered this question are “Thinking inside the Box”. Forget for a minute what the US would do. Think instead what the Chinese would do. If I were doing a little strategic thinking for the Chinese Navy, my first thought would be how to build the least complicated and least expensive way of delivering fighter and attack aircraft to any location within the Seven Dashed Line area, basically most of the South China Sea. I do the following: Begin fortifying every atoll I can, as it is doing now. Each atoll will function as an immobile aircraft carrier. To provide extended range, and mobile strike forces, I start building large catamarans, capable of holding 4 to 6 VTOL fighters. By installing a sloped deck, and a high cruise speed, I can significantly increase the load on the VTOLs by having them take off in STOL mode with the ship steaming at 60 knots. I build the ships of low reflectivity materials so they will be hard to find. This allows me to sidestep the problems with elevators, steam catapults, and large crews. It also allows me to build perhaps 20 per year, With a displacement of perhaps 10,000 tons, I can deploy the equivalent of one supercarrier per year, and have a building time of perhaps 6 months from laying the keel to launch. Because they are small, I can adapt the design quickly. My learning curve would be very rapid. The need for support ships would be low, once I complete my chain of atoll bases. Since the US Navy needs to be deployed far from home, they need big ships. The Chinese are close to home. They can deploy small ships. Asymmetric warfare at sea,

所有回答都陷入“盒子思維”，不如先拋開美國(guó)會(huì)怎么做，想想中國(guó)會(huì)怎么做。若為中國(guó)海軍獻(xiàn)策，首要考慮如何以最簡(jiǎn)單、最低成本將戰(zhàn)斗/攻擊機(jī)投送到“七道線”內(nèi)（即南海大部）任何地點(diǎn)。我會(huì)這樣做：首先，強(qiáng)化所有可用環(huán)礁（正如現(xiàn)在所為），使每個(gè)環(huán)礁都成為一座固定航母。接著，為了延展航程并組建機(jī)動(dòng)打擊力量，我打造大型雙體船，可搭載 4–6 架垂直/短距起降戰(zhàn)機(jī)。通過斜坡甲板和高速航行（60 節(jié)），可讓戰(zhàn)機(jī)以短距起飛模式起飛，大幅提升載荷。我還選用低雷達(dá)反射材料，使艦艇難以被發(fā)現(xiàn)。這樣一來(lái)，就省去了升降機(jī)、蒸汽彈射和大編制船員的問題。并且每年可建約 20 艘、排水量約 1 萬(wàn)噸的小型艦艇，相當(dāng)于每年建成一艘超級(jí)航母，且從開建到下水僅需約 6 個(gè)月。因?yàn)榕烍w小，設(shè)計(jì)迭代迅速。環(huán)礁基地鏈一旦完備，對(duì)支援艦艇的需求就很低。美國(guó)海軍需遠(yuǎn)距部署，就要大船；中國(guó)近海作戰(zhàn)，可用小船，打出海上不對(duì)稱戰(zhàn)。

Joseph Wang Try to create an East Asian equivalent to NATO, and turn his into its diplomatic advantage.

嘗試打造一個(gè)東亞版“北約”，并將其作為外交籌碼。

China is already scaring people with one aircraft carrier. If it were able and willing to build 2 aircraft carriers a year, then everyone in East Asia would start panicking, and the US could come in as a "white knight" and ask for (and likely get) basing rights in the Philippines and Vietnam. Japan would remilitarize, and you'd have Indonesia and Malaysia turn against China.

中國(guó)僅憑一艘航母就已令各方不安。倘若真有能力且有意愿每年建造兩艘航母，整個(gè)東亞都將陷入恐慌——屆時(shí)美國(guó)便可扮演"白衣騎士"角色，順勢(shì)要求（并極可能獲得）在菲律賓和越南的駐軍權(quán)。日本將加速重整軍備，印尼與馬來(lái)西亞也會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)而對(duì)抗中國(guó)。

In fact, China has to maintain a very tricky balance. Too much military buildup would actually be quite bad for its security. People will argue at what level a military buildup would be counterproductive, and there are people (who I strongly disagree with) that argue that China's current rate of military buildup is counterproductive. Right now when China does something, people scream for about 2 months and forget about it, leaving China with a larger military.

事實(shí)上，中國(guó)必須維持一種極其微妙的平衡。過度擴(kuò)張軍力反而會(huì)損害自身安全。關(guān)于軍事建設(shè)達(dá)到何種程度就會(huì)適得其反，各方爭(zhēng)論不休——有些人（我堅(jiān)決反對(duì)這種觀點(diǎn)）甚至認(rèn)為中國(guó)當(dāng)前的軍力發(fā)展速度已在產(chǎn)生反效果。目前中國(guó)的每次行動(dòng)雖會(huì)引發(fā)約兩個(gè)月的輿論嘩然，但風(fēng)波過后，中國(guó)總能實(shí)實(shí)在在地增強(qiáng)軍事實(shí)力。

As it is, one carrier allows China to completely outclass every other regional navy in Asia except for Japan. This limits the US response (i.e. is the US really going to go to war for the Philippines if no US interests were involved). If China started to seriously threaten US or Japanese interests you will see a nasty backlash.

就目前而言，一艘航母已足以讓中國(guó)在亞洲區(qū)域海軍中（除日本外）獨(dú)占鰲頭。這也限制了美國(guó)的反應(yīng)力度（畢竟如果不涉及到美國(guó)利益，真要為菲律賓開戰(zhàn)嗎？）。一旦中國(guó)開始嚴(yán)重威脅美日利益，勢(shì)必迎來(lái)強(qiáng)硬反擊。

How much is too much is something people will argue over, and I think that the Chinese government is being careful to build up its military under the threshold.

何謂“過度”將永遠(yuǎn)爭(zhēng)論不休，我認(rèn)為中國(guó)政府在謹(jǐn)慎控制軍備規(guī)模，確保尚在可接受范圍內(nèi)。

However, if you moved up to 2 carriers per year, then that's clearly way, way over the line. Also if China could build 2 carriers per year, then either it's going to collapse economically in about a decade, or else people have way, way underestimated the Chinese economy.

不過若真一年兩艘，那顯然遠(yuǎn)超底線。再者，即便中國(guó)能一年建兩艘航母，也要么在 10 年內(nèi)面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰，要么說(shuō)明外界對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力大大低估。

King of Bir Tawil When China has 4 aircraft carriers, US would be worried and demand more resources from congress to maintain superiority.

當(dāng)中國(guó)擁有 4 艘航母時(shí)，美國(guó)將憂心忡忡，向國(guó)會(huì)爭(zhēng)取更多資源以維持優(yōu)勢(shì)。

When China has 8, US would rallying support from allies to contain China.

當(dāng)中國(guó)有 8 艘時(shí)，美國(guó)會(huì)聯(lián)合盟友共同遏制。

When China has 12, US would be discussing split the Pacific Ocean with China, and retreat to Hawaii.

當(dāng)中國(guó)有 12 艘時(shí)，美國(guó)或?qū)⒂懻撆c中國(guó)瓜分太平洋，并退守夏威夷。

When China has 16, US would be a peace loving nation and treat every nation with humble and respect.

當(dāng)中國(guó)有 16 艘時(shí)，美國(guó)將成“愛好和平”的國(guó)家，以謙和與尊重對(duì)待所有國(guó)家。

When China has 20, US would be asking China to treat US as equal power, but would be okay if China put on a military base in Cuba.

當(dāng)中國(guó)有 20 艘時(shí)，美國(guó)會(huì)請(qǐng)求中國(guó)將其視為平等大國(guó)，也會(huì)接受中國(guó)在古巴設(shè)軍事基地。

When China has 24, US would ask China for preferential treatment into Chinese market, and provide cost effective products to Chinese consumers, pay by Chinese Yuan.

當(dāng)中國(guó)有 24 艘時(shí)，美國(guó)會(huì)請(qǐng)求中國(guó)給予市場(chǎng)優(yōu)先準(zhǔn)入，并向中國(guó)消費(fèi)者提供性價(jià)比產(chǎn)品，以人民幣結(jié)算。

When China has 120, US would be requesting to be a province of China, because of shared value and interest.

當(dāng)中國(guó)有 120 艘時(shí)，美國(guó)或?qū)⒁蚶媾c價(jià)值觀相同，向中國(guó)申請(qǐng)作為其一個(gè)省份。

this is a joke, don’t take it too seriously.

以上純屬玩笑，請(qǐng)勿當(dāng)真。

May we live in peace.

愿我們和平共處。

Chien?Sheng Tsai I don't know where the 2 carrier per year idea comes from. As far as I can glean, they would probably build 6 carriers and have three strike groups. China does not need to have the number of carriers that USA has because it has no intention of cruising the world looking for battles. The carriers are only for defense and guarding worldwide economic interests.

我不知道“一年兩艘航母”從何而來(lái)。據(jù)我所知，他們可能造 6 艘，組建 3 個(gè)航母戰(zhàn)斗群。中國(guó)無(wú)需像美國(guó)那樣擁有大量航母，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)無(wú)意環(huán)游世界尋機(jī)開戰(zhàn)。航母只是為防御和維護(hù)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)利益而設(shè)。

It appears that China made a smart move with the Liaoning, enabling China to ramp up quickly through reverse engineering--such cut years off of the effort. It was also smart to have the second carrier resemble the Liaoning so that training of a pool of carrier pilots can speed up. I personally think they should build a second (third) one like the Liaoning before going nuclear and catapult, just to have three operational carriers.

遼寧號(hào)的引進(jìn)堪稱明智之舉，使中國(guó)通過逆向工程快速提升——省下了數(shù)年時(shí)間。緊接著第二艘航母與遼寧號(hào)保持高度相似，也有助于加速培養(yǎng)一批航母飛行員。我個(gè)人認(rèn)為，在邁向核動(dòng)力和電磁彈射之前，至少應(yīng)再造一艘（或第三艘）“遼寧式”航母，以湊齊三艘可投入運(yùn)營(yíng)的航母。

The support ships are all being built, and also additional carrier aircraft, likely J-31. China is making rapid progress, perhaps faster than any have anticipated, and is fully cognizant that they are far behind the US, which has been building carriers for almost 100 years, while China is just starting out—and needs to catch up. They do know their weaknesses and are thus continuing with their carrier killer missile development--not up to Russian level, but close.

配套支援艦船正陸續(xù)建造，艦載機(jī)可能選用 J?31。中國(guó)正迅速推進(jìn)，速度或超出諸多預(yù)期，也十分清楚自己遠(yuǎn)落后于已建航母近百年的美國(guó)，需加緊追趕。他們也充分認(rèn)識(shí)自身弱點(diǎn)，故持續(xù)研發(fā)“航母殺手”導(dǎo)彈——雖未及俄制水平，但已相當(dāng)接近。

The Chinese are prudent and not starry-eyed like the Indians.

中國(guó)的做法穩(wěn)健，不像印度那般好高騖遠(yuǎn)。