By Murad Sadygzade, President of the Middle East Studies Center, Visiting Lecturer, HSE University (Moscow).

作者：穆拉德·薩迪格扎德，中東研究中心主席，莫斯科高等經濟大學客座講師

Global events increasingly reflect the growing confrontation between the Western bloc, led by the United States and its allies, and the countries of the so-called “World Majority,” coalescing around BRICS.

全球局勢日益反映出以美國及其盟友為首的西方集團與圍繞金磚國家形成的所謂"世界大多數"國家之間的對抗升級。

This geopolitical tension is particularly evident against the backdrop of escalating conflicts in the Middle East, where the actions of the US and Israel are seen as manifestations of Western hegemony, while BRICS nations and their partners are increasingly positioning themselves as defenders of multipolarity, sovereignty, and a just international order.

這種地緣政治緊張在中東沖突加劇的背景下尤為明顯。美國和以色列的行動被視為西方霸權的體現(xiàn)，而金磚國家及其伙伴則日益將自己定位為多極化、主權和公正國際秩序的捍衛(wèi)者。

On July 7, US President Donald Trump hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. The two leaders discussed two major issues: the upcoming negotiations with Iran and the controversial initiative to relocate Palestinians from Gaza. These topics underscored Washington and West Jerusalem’s efforts to reshape the Middle East’s security architecture – frxd under the banner of offering a “better future,” yet unfolding amid growing accusations of violations of international law.

7 月 7 日，美國總統(tǒng)特朗普在白宮會晤以色列總理內塔尼亞胡。兩位領導人討論了兩個主要議題：即將與伊朗進行的談判，以及頗具爭議的加沙地帶巴勒斯坦人遷移計劃。這些話題凸顯了華盛頓和西耶路撒冷重塑中東安全架構的努力——雖然打著"創(chuàng)造更美好未來"的旗號，卻因日益增多的違反國際法指控而備受爭議。

During a working dinner, Netanyahu stated that Israel and the US had been consulting with several countries allegedly willing to accept Palestinians wishing to leave Gaza. He emphasized that the proposed relocation would be “voluntary,” offering a better future to those who seek it. According to him, agreements with a number of countries were already nearing completion.

在一次工作晚宴上，內塔尼亞胡表示以色列和美國已與多個據稱愿意接收希望離開加沙的巴勒斯坦人的國家進行磋商。他強調這項安置計劃將是"自愿的"，為尋求新生活的人提供更美好的未來。據他透露，與若干國家達成的協(xié)議已接近完成。

Initially, Trump refrained from making a clear statement on the matter, but later remarked that “neighboring countries have been extremely cooperative,” expressing confidence that “something good will happen.” This ambiguity may reflect either an attempt to soften the political sensitivity of the issue or a reluctance to prematurely reveal the details of a plan that has drawn considerable criticism.

特朗普最初未就此明確表態(tài)，但隨后評論稱"周邊國家表現(xiàn)出高度配合"，并相信"會有積極進展"。這種模糊表態(tài)既可能是為了淡化該議題的政治敏感性，也可能源于不愿過早披露這個已招致大量批評的計劃細節(jié)。

Previously, Trump had proposed transforming Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East” and relocating its population – an idea harshly rejected both by the residents of the enclave and by international human rights organizations, which characterized it as a form of ethnic cleansing. Behind the scenes of the dinner, indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas were ongoing, focused on securing a ceasefire and a hostage exchange.

此前，特朗普曾提議將加沙改造為"中東的里維埃拉"并遷移當地居民——這一構想遭到該飛地居民和國際人權組織的強烈反對，被定性為某種形式的種族清洗。晚宴背后，以色列與哈馬斯正進行間接談判，核心議題是促成停火與人質交換。

The meeting marked the third in-person encounter between Trump and Netanyahu since the Republican leader’s return to the White House in January. Just two weeks earlier, the US had carried out strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in support of Israeli military action. Days later, Trump helped broker a short-term ceasefire in the 12-day war between Israel and Iran – an achievement likely intended to bolster his own diplomatic credentials.

此次會晤是特朗普自 1 月重返白宮以來與內塔尼亞胡的第三次面對面接觸。就在兩周前，美國為支持以色列軍事行動對伊朗核設施實施了打擊。數日后，特朗普斡旋促成了以色列與伊朗 12 天戰(zhàn)爭的短期?；稹@一外交成果很可能是為其政治履歷增色之舉。

During the meeting, Trump announced that his administration had scheduled formal talks with Iran. He said that Tehran had shown a willingness to negotiate following substantial military and economic pressure. US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff confirmed that the meeting was expected to take place “within the next week.”

會談期間，特朗普宣布其政府已安排與伊朗進行正式談判。他表示德黑蘭在承受巨大軍事和經濟壓力后展現(xiàn)出談判意愿。美國中東問題特使史蒂夫·維特科夫證實會談預計"將在下周內"舉行。

Trump also indicated he was open to lifting sanctions on Iran under the right circumstances. Meanwhile, Iran’s newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, expressed hope that tensions with the United States could be resolved through diplomacy. These statements suggested a potential, albeit limited, window for resetting US-Iranian relations, though both sides appeared driven primarily by tactical considerations.

特朗普同時表示在適當條件下愿意解除對伊朗的制裁。與此同時，伊朗新當選總統(tǒng)馬蘇德·佩澤什基安表達了通過外交途徑緩解美伊緊張關系的期望。這些表態(tài)為兩國關系重置提供了有限的可能性窗口，盡管雙方動機顯然主要出于戰(zhàn)術考量。

The political significance of the Trump-Netanyahu meeting was further underscored by protests outside the White House. Hundreds of demonstrators, waving Palestinian flags, demanded an end to US military support for Israel and called for Netanyahu’s arrest in light of the International Criminal Court’s warrant against him for alleged war crimes in Gaza.

白宮外爆發(fā)的抗議活動進一步凸顯了特朗普與內塔尼亞胡會晤的政治敏感性。數百名揮舞巴勒斯坦國旗的示威者要求美國停止對以色列的軍事支持，并鑒于國際刑事法院以內塔尼亞胡涉嫌在加沙犯下戰(zhàn)爭罪為由對其發(fā)出逮捕令，呼吁將其逮捕歸案。

Earlier that day, Netanyahu had met with Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The following day, he held talks with congressional leaders. During his meeting with Trump, the Israeli prime minister also handed the president a letter nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize – a symbolic gesture aimed at reinforcing the strategic bond between the two leaders and appealing to their respective domestic audiences.

當天早些時候，內塔尼亞胡會見了威特科夫和國務卿馬可·盧比奧。次日，他與國會領導人舉行了會談。在與特朗普會晤期間，這位以色列總理還向總統(tǒng)遞交了一封提名其角逐諾貝爾和平獎的信函——這一象征性舉動旨在強化兩位領導人之間的戰(zhàn)略紐帶，并向各自國內民眾傳遞信號。

The Israeli side expressed hope that the outcome of the conflict with Iran could help advance the normalization of relations with several Arab states, including Lebanon, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. In this sense, the actions of Israel and the US in the region appear to be aimed not only at immediate security concerns but also at a long-term strategic reshaping of the Middle Eastern landscape.

以色列方面表示，希望與伊朗沖突的結果能推動與黎巴嫩、敘利亞及沙特阿拉伯等數個阿拉伯國家的關系正?；?。從這個意義上說，以色列和美國在該地區(qū)的行動似乎不僅著眼于眼前的安全關切，更致力于對中東格局進行長遠的戰(zhàn)略重塑。

However, the situation is far from straightforward. It seems that Netanyahu is trying to create the appearance of active engagement in peace processes, while in reality showing little interest in achieving meaningful change. Israeli media have reported that Netanyahu is under “intense pressure” from Trump, who is pushing for a Gaza ceasefire deal. Nevertheless, no substantial progress has yet been made.

然而局勢遠非表面這般簡單。內塔尼亞胡似乎試圖營造積極參與和平進程的表象，實則對實現(xiàn)實質性變革興趣寥寥。以色列媒體報道稱，內塔尼亞胡正承受特朗普施加的"巨大壓力"，后者正力推加沙停火協(xié)議。但截至目前，談判仍未取得重大突破。

Media sources indicate that Witkoff’s planned trip to Doha has been postponed. Earlier that evening, Witkoff had expressed optimism, claiming that only one issue remained unresolved: where the Israeli army would redeploy. This question is crucial, as Israel insists on retaining control over the city of Rafah in southern Gaza and securing the release of hostages. Current estimates suggest that around 50 hostages remain in Gaza, with approximately 20 believed to be alive.

據媒體消息，威特科夫原定前往多哈的行程已被推遲。當晚早些時候，這位特使還曾樂觀表示僅剩一個懸而未決的問題：以軍將重新部署至何處。這個議題至關重要，因為以色列堅持要保留對加沙南部拉法市的控制權，并確保人質獲釋。目前估計仍有約 50 名人質滯留在加沙，其中約 20 人據信尚在人世。

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has announced plans to establish a tent city in Rafah to relocate up to 600,000 Palestinians. Israel would control entry into the camp, prevent residents from leaving, and subsequently begin the process of transferring them out of Gaza altogether. This is all part of what has been referred to as the “Trump Plan” for the “depopulation” of the enclave and the establishment of full Israeli control.

以色列國防部長卡茨宣布計劃在拉法建立帳篷城，用于轉移多達 60 萬巴勒斯坦人。以色列將控制營地的進出，阻止居民離開，隨后開始將他們完全轉移出加沙地帶的進程。這一切都是所謂"特朗普計劃"的一部分，旨在實現(xiàn)該飛地的"人口清空"并建立以色列的全面控制。

According to Katz’s broader plan, the remainder of Gaza’s 2.1 million residents could eventually be expelled as well. Critics argue that this approach would amount to the forced displacement of Palestinians to third countries. Annelle Sheline, a fellow with the Quincy Institute’s Middle East program, described the proposed camps as “concentration camps” and expressed doubt that the Trump administration would intervene to stop the implementation of Israeli plans.

根據卡茨更廣泛的計劃，加沙地帶剩余的 210 萬居民最終也可能被驅逐。批評者認為這種做法等同于將巴勒斯坦人強制遷移到第三國。昆西研究所中東項目研究員安內爾·謝琳將這些擬建的營地稱為"集中營"，并對特朗普政府會出手阻止以色列計劃的實施表示懷疑。

“Although Washington wields considerable influence over the details of what’s happening, Trump effectively sidestepped the question of forced displacement by deferring responsibility to Netanyahu,” Sheline told Al Jazeera.

"盡管華盛頓對當前事態(tài)的細節(jié)擁有相當大的影響力，但特朗普通過將責任推給內塔尼亞胡，實際上回避了強制遷移的問題，"謝琳對半島電視臺表示。

She further stated that Trump is surrounded by advisors who are unlikely to challenge him on moral or legal grounds. “What’s happening isn’t just a potential crime against humanity – it’s an effort to legitimize GENOCIDE and the subsequent deportation of survivors. And it implicates the United States directly,” the expert emphasized.

她進一步表示，特朗普身邊的顧問不太可能在道德或法律層面提出異議。"正在發(fā)生的不僅是一樁潛在的反人類罪行——更是在為種族滅絕及其后續(xù)對幸存者的驅逐行為正名。這直接牽涉到美國，"專家強調道。

Trump himself has continued to strongly support Netanyahu, including by interfering in Israel’s internal politics – he has openly criticized the prosecutors leading the corruption investigation against the Israeli prime minister, who faces charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. Netanyahu has denied all allegations.

特朗普本人持續(xù)強力支持內塔尼亞胡，甚至干預以色列內政——他公開批評負責調查以總理腐敗案的檢察官。內塔尼亞胡面臨賄賂、欺詐和背信三項指控，但否認了全部指控。

According to the latest figures, the war in Gaza has killed at least 57,575 Palestinians and injured another 136,879. The majority of Gaza’s population has been displaced, and UN estimates suggest that nearly half a million people are now on the brink of famine.

最新數據顯示，加沙戰(zhàn)爭已造成至少 57,575 名巴勒斯坦人死亡，136,879 人受傷。加沙大部分人口流離失所，聯(lián)合國估計近 50 萬人正面臨饑荒威脅。

Against the backdrop of Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, the day before – on July 6 – the BRICS leaders issued a joint declaration condemning the June strikes by Israel and the US on Iran, particularly targeting nuclear facilities. “We condemn the military strikes against Iran that have taken place since June 13, 2025, which constitute a violation of international law and the UN Charter,” the statement read.

在以色列總理內塔尼亞胡訪問華盛頓的背景下，7 月 6 日——即訪問前一天——金磚國家領導人發(fā)表聯(lián)合聲明，譴責以色列和美國于 6 月對伊朗發(fā)動的襲擊，特別是針對核設施的打擊。聲明指出："我們譴責 2025 年 6 月 13 日以來針對伊朗的軍事打擊，這些行為違反了國際法和《聯(lián)合國憲章》。"

Specifically, the BRICS leaders expressed concern over attacks on civilian infrastructure and nuclear facilities. They also voiced alarm over the escalating tensions in the Middle East and called for diplomatic efforts to resolve regional crises. The declaration demanded a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and other occupied Palestinian territories and urged an immediate, lasting, and unconditional ceasefire. It further affirmed that Gaza is an integral part of the State of Palestine, which must be granted full independence.

具體而言，金磚國家領導人對民用基礎設施和核設施遭受襲擊表示關切。他們對中東緊張局勢升級發(fā)出警告，并呼吁通過外交努力解決地區(qū)危機。宣言要求以色列軍隊完全撤出加沙及其他被占領的巴勒斯坦領土，敦促立即實現(xiàn)持久且無條件?；稹Ｎ募瑫r申明加沙是巴勒斯坦國不可分割的組成部分，必須獲得完全獨立。

The summit participants also called for the urgent delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza and advocated for the prompt release of both Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. The declaration emphasized that Gaza and the West Bank should be administered by the future government of a sovereign Palestinian state.

與會各方還呼吁緊急向加沙提供人道主義援助，主張立即釋放以色列人質和巴勒斯坦被關押者。宣言強調加沙與約旦河西岸應由未來主權獨立的巴勒斯坦國政府實施管轄。

Unsurprisingly, Trump – along with Netanyahu – was deeply displeased by the BRICS statement. He has repeatedly threatened sanctions against BRICS member states and their allies. According to Politico, Trump sent a letter to the Brazilian government threatening to impose 50% tariffs, accusing the country of politically persecuting former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is under investigation for his alleged role in the attempted coup of 2022. The White House reportedly chose swift and effective trade pressure over more complex sanctions mechanisms. According to former US Special Envoy to Latin America Mauricio Claver-Carone, the BRICS summit was “the last straw” for Washington.

不出所料，特朗普與內塔尼亞胡一樣，對金磚國家的聲明深感不滿。他多次威脅要對金磚成員國及其盟友實施制裁。據《政治報》報道，特朗普致函巴西政府威脅加征 50%關稅，指控該國政治迫害正因涉嫌參與 2022 年未遂政變而接受調查的前總統(tǒng)博索納羅。據報道，白宮選擇了快速有效的貿易施壓而非更復雜的制裁機制。美國前拉丁美洲事務特使毛里西奧·克拉弗-卡隆稱，金磚峰會是華盛頓的"最后一根稻草"。

Trump’s anger, his allies say, stems not only from the situation around Bolsonaro but also from BRICS’s ongoing efforts to de-dollarize the global economy. The group’s condemnation of the strikes on Iran and Israeli actions in the Middle East was also met with frustration in Washington. Former White House strategist Steve Bannon noted that Trump is irritated by every step the bloc takes to undermine the US dollar, and that the summit in Rio de Janeiro only intensified that irritation. In response to Washington’s threats, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva announced retaliatory 50% tariffs on US goods. Meanwhile, Trump continues to ramp up pressure on other BRICS-aligned countries, threatening 10% tariffs – and previously even floated 100% tariffs – should the bloc attempt to replace the dollar in global trade.

特朗普的憤怒，其盟友表示，不僅源于博索納羅周邊局勢，更因金磚國家持續(xù)推進全球經濟去美元化。該集團對伊朗遭襲及以色列在中東行動的譴責同樣令華盛頓感到挫敗。前白宮戰(zhàn)略師史蒂夫·班農指出，特朗普對該集團削弱美元地位的每一步舉措都感到惱火，而里約熱內盧峰會更是加劇了這種憤怒。作為對華盛頓威脅的回應，巴西總統(tǒng)路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦宣布對美國商品征收 50%報復性關稅。與此同時，特朗普持續(xù)加大對其他金磚國家陣營成員國的施壓，威脅若該集團試圖取代美元在全球貿易中的地位，將征收 10%關稅——此前甚至曾考慮過 100%關稅。

Analyzing current global developments – from the BRICS summit in Rio to the escalating tensions in the Middle East – it is becoming increasingly clear that the world is moving toward a pronounced geopolitical divide. The interconnected nature of political, economic, and military processes across continents demonstrates that the era of unipolar dominance is fading. A growing confrontation is unfolding between two major blocs: the so-called West, led by the US, and the emerging non-Western world, whose political and economic core is increasingly represented by BRICS. This coalition is steadily solidifying its role as the voice of the Global South, positioning itself as the flagship of a movement advocating for multipolarity and greater equity in international affairs.

分析當前全球局勢——從里約熱內盧的金磚國家峰會到中東不斷升級的緊張態(tài)勢——世界正朝著顯著的地緣政治分裂方向演進已愈發(fā)清晰。跨大洲政治、經濟與軍事進程的相互關聯(lián)性表明，單極主導的時代正在消逝。兩大陣營之間的對抗正日益加劇：一方是以美國為首的所謂西方集團，另一方則是以金磚國家為政治經濟核心不斷崛起的非西方世界。這個聯(lián)盟正穩(wěn)步鞏固其作為全球南方代言人的角色，將自身定位為倡導國際事務多極化與更公平秩序的旗艦力量。

In its bid to preserve global dominance, the US has increasingly resorted to political and economic coercion, viewing BRICS’ efforts as a direct challenge to the existing order. Yet, the global rift is not merely economic or ideological. The Middle East has become a frontline where this confrontation takes on the form of open conflict. Israel’s actions, backed by Washington, are increasingly perceived in the non-Western world as a Western offensive against the interests of the “World Majority” – nations that reject the dictates of traditional power centers. Within this context, Russia and China – both staunch supporters of Iran and other regional actors – are seen as natural allies to those resisting what is perceived as destructive Western policy. The contours of this global divide are becoming ever more defined: on one side, the US and its allies and proxies; on the other, those advocating for a reimagined world order based on fairness, sovereignty, and a balance of interests.

為維系全球霸權，美國日益頻繁地動用政治經濟脅迫手段，將金磚國家的努力視為對現(xiàn)行秩序的直接挑戰(zhàn)。然而全球裂痕遠不止于經濟或意識形態(tài)領域。中東已成為這場對抗演變?yōu)楣_沖突的前沿陣地。在非西方世界眼中，以色列在華盛頓支持下采取的行動，正日益被視為西方對"世界大多數"國家利益的侵犯——這些國家拒絕接受傳統(tǒng)權力中心的號令。在此背景下，俄羅斯和中國作為伊朗等地區(qū)力量的堅定支持者，自然被視為抵抗西方破壞性政策的天然盟友。全球陣營的輪廓正愈發(fā)清晰：一方是美國及其盟友與代理人；另一方則是倡導基于公平、主權與利益平衡重構世界秩序的力量。

From this, one clear conclusion emerges: conflicts in the Middle East are set to intensify. Gaza will likely remain a flashpoint of violence and humanitarian crisis, as the root political and geopolitical causes of the conflict go unaddressed. The confrontation between Israel and Iran – already escalating through direct military engagements and cyber operations – may evolve into a wider and more dangerous conflict. Moreover, the arc of tension is likely to draw in additional regional players, including Türkiye and various Arab states. Despite longstanding economic and military ties with the West, many of these countries are increasingly gravitating toward the non-Western camp, which champions reforms to global institutions, challenges hegemonic structures, and upholds sovereignty and equality in international relations. This trend lays the groundwork for a profound transformation – not only of the Middle East, but of the global system itself – where the battle over new rules of engagement becomes a driving force behind enduring instability and conflict.

由此可以得出一個明確的結論：中東地區(qū)的沖突將愈演愈烈。由于沖突的政治和地緣政治根源未得到解決，加沙地帶很可能繼續(xù)成為暴力事件和人道主義危機的爆發(fā)點。以色列與伊朗之間的對抗——已通過直接軍事行動和網絡戰(zhàn)不斷升級——可能演變成更廣泛、更危險的沖突。此外，緊張局勢的弧線很可能會波及更多地區(qū)參與者，包括土耳其和多個阿拉伯國家。盡管這些國家與西方有著長期的經濟和軍事聯(lián)系，但它們正日益向非西方陣營靠攏，該陣營主張改革全球機構、挑戰(zhàn)霸權結構，并堅持國際關系中的主權平等原則。這一趨勢為深刻變革奠定了基礎——不僅是中東地區(qū)，更是全球體系本身——圍繞新交往規(guī)則的爭奪將成為長期不穩(wěn)定和沖突的驅動力。