國(guó)外熱議：為什么中國(guó)和日本可以相對(duì)和平共處，而伊朗和沙特卻不能？

Walter Finch
Originally Answered: Why can China and Japan coexist (relatively) peacefully while Iran and Saudi Arabia cannot?

最初回答：為什么中國(guó)和日本能夠（相對(duì)）和平共處，而伊朗和沙特阿拉伯卻不能？

Quite simply, because Japan and China trade over $400 billion worth of goods and services each year. They may differ over the sovereignty of various uninhabited islets, they may bear the scars and resentment of a violent and tragic history, and they may bump shoulders as the balance of power between the two shifts, but they both have the same fundamental interest, which is trade and prosperity.

原因很簡(jiǎn)單，因?yàn)槿毡竞椭袊?guó)每年的商品和服務(wù)貿(mào)易額超過(guò)4000億美元。他們可能在多個(gè)無(wú)人小島的主權(quán)問(wèn)題上存在分歧，可能背負(fù)著暴力悲劇歷史留下的傷痕與怨恨，也可能隨著兩國(guó)實(shí)力平衡的變化而發(fā)生摩擦，但他們都擁有相同的根本利益，那就是貿(mào)易與繁榮。

They both have export-led economies which require huge quantities of inputs from abroad, so broadly speaking their economic interests are aligned. And finally, the Asia-Pacfic is a highly complex and febrile region inhabited by a variety of powers greater and lesser and any conflict between China and Japan would likely conflagrate.

兩國(guó)均實(shí)行出口導(dǎo)向型經(jīng)濟(jì)，需從海外進(jìn)口大量原材料，因此從廣義上講雙方經(jīng)濟(jì)利益具有一致性。此外，亞太地區(qū)局勢(shì)高度復(fù)雜敏感，區(qū)域內(nèi)大國(guó)小國(guó)林立，中日若發(fā)生沖突極可能引發(fā)燎原之勢(shì)。

Ultimately, apart from the right to be owner-occupiers of some islands, there nothing to be gained from war between the two. One is not going to conquer and occupy the other. They gain much more by trading with each other.

最終，除了獲得一些島嶼的所有權(quán)和居住權(quán)外，兩國(guó)之間爆發(fā)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)不會(huì)獲得任何好處。一方不可能征服并占領(lǐng)另一方。通過(guò)相互貿(mào)易，他們獲得的利益要大得多。



Iran and Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, do not have as tightly-bound economies. Both are oil exporters and OPEC members and would benefit from high oil prices. However, the two countries have no commercial relations and trade volume officially stands at zero. This means that war betweeen the two would not necessarily be lose-lose, as it would between Japan and China.

另一方面，伊朗和沙特阿拉伯的經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系并不緊密。兩國(guó)都是石油出口國(guó)和歐佩克（OPEC）成員，都將受益于高油價(jià)。然而，兩國(guó)沒(méi)有商業(yè)關(guān)系，官方貿(mào)易額為零。這意味著兩國(guó)之間的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)不一定是雙輸局面，不像中日之間那樣必然是雙輸。

Furthermore, as the two paragons of their respective Islamic sects (Shia and Sunni), they are engaged in an intra-religious ideological conflict, in which both seek to muscle the other out and increase influence in the region in a zero-sum game.

此外，作為各自伊斯蘭教派（什葉派和遜尼派）的典范，兩國(guó)卷入了一場(chǎng)宗教內(nèi)部的意識(shí)形態(tài)沖突，在這場(chǎng)零和游戲中，雙方都試圖排擠對(duì)方，增加自己在該地區(qū)的影響力。

They are unable to attack each other directly, and so they employ proxy forces in regional battle grounds such as Syria and Yemen to carve out and increase their zones of influence.

他們無(wú)法直接攻擊對(duì)方，因此便在敘利亞和也門(mén)等地區(qū)戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)上利用代理人武裝，以開(kāi)拓和擴(kuò)大自己的勢(shì)力范圍。

In recent years, Iran has been the expansionary power, expanding in to fill the vacuum left by the removal Sunni leaders in Iraq and Yemen, while Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies have attempted to topple the Alawite/Shia Assad government and empower the local Sunni communities.

近年來(lái)，伊朗一直是擴(kuò)張勢(shì)力，乘虛而入，填補(bǔ)了伊拉克和也門(mén)遜尼派領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人被推翻后留下的權(quán)力真空；而沙特阿拉伯及其海灣盟友則試圖推翻阿拉維派/什葉派的阿薩德政府，并扶持當(dāng)?shù)氐倪d尼派勢(shì)力。

Why can’t they just settle their differences and get along? Partly for religious-ideological reasons, and partly because all the instability in the Middle East continually presents opportunities to expand their spheres of interest.

為什么他們不能解決分歧、和平相處呢？部分原因是宗教意識(shí)形態(tài)的差異，部分原因是中東地區(qū)持續(xù)的不穩(wěn)定不斷為他們提供了擴(kuò)大自身利益范圍的機(jī)會(huì)。

Unfortunately, in an unstable or volatile international system, it is rational to continually be looking to maximise one’s power and influence as a pursuit of survival.

不幸的是，在一個(gè)不穩(wěn)定或動(dòng)蕩的國(guó)際體系中，不斷尋求最大化自身權(quán)力和影響力以謀求生存，是理性的選擇。

Amoy Young
For Saudi and Iran, aside from their sectarian feud of Sunni vs. Shia, and geopolitical rivalry, both of them are oil based economies. That means they compete for the same market share especially in Asia, both ranking as the biggest oil suppliers for China, India et al. They hardly share any convergent interest but would rather be at each other's throat with proxy wars in Yemen and Syria.

對(duì)沙特和伊朗來(lái)說(shuō)，除了遜尼派與什葉派的宗派宿怨和地緣政治競(jìng)爭(zhēng)外，兩國(guó)都是石油經(jīng)濟(jì)。這意味著他們爭(zhēng)奪的是相同的市場(chǎng)份額，尤其是在亞洲，兩國(guó)都是中國(guó)、印度等國(guó)的最大石油供應(yīng)國(guó)。他們幾乎沒(méi)有共同的利益，反而更愿意在也門(mén)和敘利亞通過(guò)代理人戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)互相爭(zhēng)斗。

In contrast China and Japan are mutually top trading partners for each other, and Chinese travellers are swarming Japan in millions with $$$ spendings. Despite historical bitterness and territorial spats, Chinese (secretly) admire Japanese for a few of their virtues. Both being also culturally close and pragmatic, coupled with economic engagement, two countries have exercised self-restraint to stop tensions from escalating.

相比之下，中國(guó)和日本互為最大的貿(mào)易伙伴，中國(guó)游客正以數(shù)百萬(wàn)計(jì)的規(guī)模涌入日本，消費(fèi)金額巨大。盡管存在歷史傷痛和領(lǐng)土爭(zhēng)端，中國(guó)人（私下里）欣賞日本人的某些優(yōu)點(diǎn)。兩國(guó)文化上也相近且務(wù)實(shí)，加上經(jīng)濟(jì)上的密切聯(lián)系，雙方都采取了自我克制，以防止緊張局勢(shì)升級(jí)。

Gurudutt Mallapur
The basic premise of the question is incorrect, that China and Japan are coexisting (and trading) in peace while KSA and Iran are not.

這個(gè)問(wèn)題的基本前提是錯(cuò)誤的，即認(rèn)為中國(guó)和日本在和平共處（并進(jìn)行貿(mào)易），而沙特阿拉伯（KSA）和伊朗則不是。

Actually, the trading part is correct but the peaceful part isn't.

實(shí)際上，貿(mào)易部分是對(duì)的，但和平部分則不然。

North Korea firing missiles into Japanese sea doesn't seem very peaceful to me. The main supporter of NK is China/Russia. Wouldn't surprise me if the missiles were “imported at short notice” from friendly neighbors.

在我看來(lái)，朝鮮向日本海發(fā)射導(dǎo)彈似乎并不怎么和平。朝鮮的主要支持者是中國(guó)/俄羅斯。如果這些導(dǎo)彈是“緊急從友好鄰邦進(jìn)口的”，我也不會(huì)感到驚訝。

Japan, SK and US respond militarily by installing thaad system and other “peacekeeping” maneouvers.

日本、韓國(guó)和美國(guó)則以部署薩德（THAAD）系統(tǒng)和其他“維和”軍事行動(dòng)作為回應(yīng)。

Not exactly peaceful is it, if threats of WW3 are being bandied about as nonchalantly as the news of next release of “Fast and Furious part N”(maybe it should be “Dumb and Dumber part N”)

這實(shí)在算不上和平，尤其當(dāng)?shù)谌问澜绱髴?zhàn)的威脅像談?wù)撓乱徊俊端俣扰c激情第N部》（也許該叫《蠢蛋進(jìn)化論第N部》）的新聞那樣被隨意散播時(shí)。

So it's just direct trade and indirect aggression via proxies.

所以這只是直接的貿(mào)易和通過(guò)代理人的間接侵略。

This is exactly what's going on between the 2 Middle East countries in question (minus the trade part of course).

這正是所提到的兩個(gè)中東國(guó)家之間正在發(fā)生的事情（當(dāng)然，減去貿(mào)易部分）。

Yemen, Syria (even Qatar to an extent) being the proxy battle grounds if one insists on being specific. KSA, US and allies on one side and Iran, Russia, Syria, Turkey on another (?China at least in terms of trade with Iran?).

如果非要具體說(shuō)明的話(huà)，也門(mén)、敘利亞（甚至卡塔爾在某種程度上）就是代理人戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)。一方是沙特阿拉伯、美國(guó)及其盟友，另一方是伊朗、俄羅斯、敘利亞、土耳其（？中國(guó)至少在與伊朗的貿(mào)易上是這樣？）。

This is geopolitics. Something that's quite evident if one scans the news once in a while and digs a bit (on Quora for example) for underlying power struggles rather than the surface rhetoric.

這就是地緣政治。如果你偶爾瀏覽新聞，并深挖一點(diǎn)（比如在Quora上）表面言論之下的權(quán)力斗爭(zhēng)，這是相當(dāng)明顯的。

Alex Zhang
This is a bit of a complicated question, and I think the core of it might come down on how you describe “peaceful coexistence”.

這是一個(gè)有點(diǎn)復(fù)雜的問(wèn)題，我認(rèn)為其核心可能取決于你如何定義“和平共處”。

Saudi Arabia and Iran may not have any active relations at present, but neither are they officially at war, nor have their nations ever directly attacked one another in recent history. They may both support groups beyond their borders to further their conflicting interests, and are indeed on opposite sides of several regional conflicts, but an all-out war between the two is fairly unlikely at this point.

沙特阿拉伯和伊朗目前可能沒(méi)有積極的往來(lái)，但他們既沒(méi)有正式宣戰(zhàn)，在近代歷史上也從未直接攻擊過(guò)對(duì)方。他們可能在境外支持某些團(tuán)體以推進(jìn)其相互沖突的利益，并且在幾場(chǎng)地區(qū)沖突中確實(shí)處于對(duì)立面，但目前兩國(guó)之間爆發(fā)全面戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的可能性相當(dāng)小。

China and Japan are major trade partners and neighbors, although their political ties might not be described as very friendly. After all, there are still certain unresolved disputes between their governments, and Japan still hosts American military bases on its territory; in additional, some Chinese people may hold certain feelings of resentment due to historical reasons. Yet again, an all-out war is just as unlikely between the two of them for the foreseeable future.

中國(guó)和日本是主要的貿(mào)易伙伴和鄰國(guó)，盡管他們的政治關(guān)系可能稱(chēng)不上非常友好。畢竟，兩國(guó)政府之間仍存在某些未解決的爭(zhēng)端，日本領(lǐng)土上仍有美國(guó)軍事基地；此外，一些中國(guó)人可能因歷史原因懷有怨恨。然而同樣地，在可預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái)，兩國(guó)之間爆發(fā)全面戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的可能性也極小。

It might also be because Saudi Arabia and Iran are more actively competing for dominance of their neighborhood than China and Japan are. That being said, I do believe East Asia is simply more stable and less volatile at the moment than the Middle East currently is, with even North Korea cooling down its rhetoric for a long while.

也可能是因?yàn)樯程匕⒗鸵晾试跔?zhēng)奪其周邊地區(qū)主導(dǎo)權(quán)方面比中日兩國(guó)更為積極。話(huà)雖如此，我確實(shí)認(rèn)為東亞目前總體上比中東更穩(wěn)定、更少動(dòng)蕩，甚至連朝鮮的激烈言辭也降溫了相當(dāng)長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間。

Perhaps this might be because many Chinese and Japanese people lean towards atheism or agnosticism, thereby lacking the impetus for at least religious conflict.

也許這可能是因?yàn)樵S多中國(guó)人和日本人傾向于無(wú)神論或不可知論，因此至少缺乏宗教沖突的動(dòng)力。

Conversely, most people in the Middle East have societies and governments which strongly embrace organized religion of one kind or another, resulting in (as one major example) the ongoing Sunni-Shi’ite divide between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which has also in turn fractured Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

相反，在中東的大多數(shù)國(guó)家，其社會(huì)和政府都強(qiáng)烈信奉某種有組織的宗教，導(dǎo)致了（一個(gè)主要例子）沙特阿拉伯和伊朗之間持續(xù)的遜尼派-什葉派分裂，這種分裂反過(guò)來(lái)又使伊拉克、敘利亞和也門(mén)陷入分裂。

Ridwan Nurhayat
Originally Answered: Why can China and Japan coexist (relatively) peacefully while Iran and Saudi Arabia cannot?

最初回答：為什么中國(guó)和日本能夠（相對(duì)）和平共處，而伊朗和沙特阿拉伯卻不能？

Relationship between Iran and Saudi is relatively more peaceful than between:

伊朗和沙特之間的關(guān)系，相對(duì)而言比以下國(guó)家間的關(guān)系更和平：

South Korea and North Korea

韓國(guó)和朝鮮

India and Pakistan

印度和巴基斯坦

Russia and Ukraine

俄羅斯和烏克蘭

etc.

等等。

At least Saudi and Iran have never been at war against each other. No matter how harsh the rhetoric between leaders of both countries.

至少沙特和伊朗從未彼此交戰(zhàn)過(guò)。無(wú)論兩國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的言辭多么激烈。

Sure, both countries are less peaceful than China or Japan. But comparing Saudi - Iran with China - Japan wouldn’t be meaningful.

誠(chéng)然，這兩個(gè)國(guó)家都不如中國(guó)或日本和平。但將沙特-伊朗與中國(guó)-日本進(jìn)行比較是沒(méi)有意義的。

Why don’t you compare it with relationship of Jordan - Israel or Qatar - Iran, for example.

你為什么不將其與約旦-以色列或卡塔爾-伊朗的關(guān)系進(jìn)行比較呢？